Brazil Presidential Election Atlas

[buritobr]

The poorer version of Dave Leip's for Brazil Presidential Elections
https://sites.google.com/site/atlaseleicoespresidenciais/

You can see all the results (total, state, municipality) and maps like these

1945


1950


1955


1960


1989


1994


1998


2002


2006


2010


2014


2018

[Red Velvet]

Man, these maps just show how Rio de Janeiro went from the most progressive open minded state to evangelical and militia-land in the past decade. 2018 was the first time Rio f***ed up and in a really BAD way.

On the other hand, the northeast went from the most UDN friendly region in pre-dictatorship period to a PT stronghold nowadays. It was the opposite trend. No wonder the Northeast is substituting Rio as the new cultural reference for the country.

Look at how Rio voted in previous years:

Pre-dictatorship

1945 - Rio voted for more centrist PSD option of Dutra even though the right-wing option from UDN was from Rio

1950 - Rio voted for Getúlio Vargas, the left-wing nationalist option

1955 - Rio voted for JK like most of the country, who was the better option and is regarded as one of the best presidents

1960 - Rio did NOT vote for Jânio Quadros like the rest of the country did, who ended up being a complete disaster

Post-dictatorship

1989 - Rio was one of the few states which voted for Lula instead of Collor, who didn’t even finish his term

1994 - Rio voted for FHC, the only time PSDB ever won something in Rio. But every state did the same (only RS didn’t) and FHC 1st term was actually pretty good, unlike the 2nd. Plano Real was important for the country. Still a good decision.

1998 - Rio voted for Lula, even though FHC ended up being re-elected

2002 and 2006 - Rio voted for Lula

2010 and 2014 - Rio voted for Dilma, from Lula’s party

2018 - Rio votes for far-right Bolsonaro.

[H. Ross Peron]

Interesting how Brasilia has moved rightward as well.

[thumb21]

Its interesting that Rio Grande do Sul the only state to consistently vote for Lula before it moved right during his presidency, I'm not sure why.

[buritobr]

Interesting how Brasilia has moved rightward as well.

1) Public sector employees don't vote strongly for PT now as they did in the past
2) A middle class of private sector workers increased in Brasília in the last 30 years
3) Evangelic poor neighborhoods increased in Brasília in the last 30 years

[buritobr]

Its interesting that Rio Grande do Sul the only state to consistently vote for Lula before it moved right during his presidency, I'm not sure why.

Rio Grande do Sul has a higher income than the average of Brazil, so, there is a large middle class population. Lula lost support of the middle class after the corruption scandals related to PT since 2005. But other rich states didn't face the same PT decrease like Rio Grande do Sul. So, there are local motives.
Maybe, the decision of PT governor Olívio Dutra (1999-2002) to deny subsidies to Ford Motors made the population become angry. Ford was planning to build a factory in Rio Grande do Sul, but after Dutra's decision, Ford built a factory in Bahia (in 2020, Ford decided to shut all factories in Brazil).

Rio Grande do Sul used to have many important left-wing leaders in the past, but most of them became old or died.

[CumbrianLefty]

So do you think the 2018 vote is a one-off for Rio, or the start of a trend?

[Red Velvet]

So do you think the 2018 vote is a one-off for Rio, or the start of a trend?

A bit of both tbh. On one hand, I think Rio has structural problems with its government, uncontrolled militias and/or traffickers and also rise of evangelicalism in the suburbs that do push it more towards the right these days than in the past. But the decadence has been going on since the 50s when it lost its capital status, it just has been a really slow death.

On the other, unlike the southern states or even its neighbor São Paulo, I think Rio is more driven by populism because of its demographics and divisions. And that includes economic left-wing politics as well in times they become more demanded.

So I expect Rio to vote for the left again in 2022 but I think the state is way more of a toss up in these days and not necessarily the progressive reference it was in the past. Lula years stimulated the construction of a Northeastern identity that is shaping itself nowadays as the new cultural backbone and reference for the country, something that was associated to Rio in the past.

The better filmmakers these days and which make more international success even come from the Northeast. I don’t think this is a coincidence.

I always associated Rio more to being this culturally ahead place that defined trends that would be followed by the country and this is true for both good trends and bad trends. But Bolsonaro is completely terrible for Rio’s reputation in a way I hope people simply stop elevating Rio to be so politically relevant lmao. Rio needs a serious intervention because the absolute worst politicians appear to come from here these days. And the good ones aren’t as valued by the population. The left in Rio needs to connect more with lower income working class groups. PSOL strength in Rio makes people associate the left to cultural “woke” discussions instead. In other states this perception is not really as a strong.*

That’s why PT is important, they have penetration with all working class groups, regardless of their position in cultural topics. The most typical Bolsonaro 2018 - Lula 2022 voter stereotype will likely be an evangelical Christian from working class neighborhood in Rio disappointed by Bolsonaro failing to deliver and nostalgic about their economical advance during Lula years even if they later started to hate the left because of cultural values.

*See municipal election maps for example. In São Paulo and most of Brazil, the richer neighborhoods tend to vote for the right and poorer ones for the left because the focus is on the economic divide. In Rio it’s the opposite: the Zona Sul (richer region and with higher education levels) votes for socialist and “woke” PSOL and more working class places vote for Christians in the right. It’s much more of a cultural divide in the city of Rio, kinda similar to the logic you see in US for example. But the rest of Brazil tends to behave more like any other Latin American country, with the economic divide in focus.

[H. Ross Peron]

This is a very interesting and informative analysis of Brazils regional particularisms. I had no idea the Northeast was becoming more culturally prominent in recent years given Sao Paulo and Rio are so huge. I imagine the last time the Northeast had such relative influence was in the 19th Century or even before independence.
 

[buritobr]

So do you think the 2018 vote is a one-off for Rio, or the start of a trend?

Hard to answer before 2022, 2026...
Rio de Janeiro (the state and the city) was trending right, but the jump in 2018 was the biggest

% of the vote for PT in the runoff of the presidential elections since 2002

Brazil
2002: 61.3%
2006: 60.8%
2010: 56.0%
2014: 51.6%
2018: 44.9%

Rio de Janeiro state (difference to national vote)
2002: 79.0% (+18.7%)
2006: 69.7% (+8.9%)
2010: 60.5% (+4.5%)
2014: 54.9% (+3.3%)
2018: 32.1% (-12.8%)

Rio de Janeiro city (difference to national vote)
2002: 81.0% (+20.7%)
2006: 65.9% (+5.1%)
2010: 61.0% (+5.0%)
2014: 50.8% (-0.8%)
2018: 33.6% (-11.3%)

[Red Velvet]

This is a very interesting and informative analysis of Brazils regional particularisms. I had no idea the Northeast was becoming more culturally prominent in recent years given Sao Paulo and Rio are so huge. I imagine the last time the Northeast had such relative influence was in the 19th Century or even before independence.
 

Northeast is used to be historically seen as more backwards by people living in the regions south of it because of lesser economic development, “coronelismo” authoritarian politics from early XX century, the more semiarid vegetation, etc. At same time, it’s the region that grows the most since Lula years.

It’s definitely the region with bloodiest history, from being the start of the colonization of the country to the “cangaço” culture that defined the outback area of Brazil for a long time. It was always a really big cultural reference for the country in all areas. In cinema, from 1964’s Black God, White Devil to 2019’s Bacurau.

It’s more that politics is putting them in more spotlight nowadays. The left is always more connected in pushing cultural trends and considering the fact that the Northeast is the left’s stronghold, they become “cool” in the same sense Rio used to be “cool” for being a progressive open-minded state in the past.

Judging by the current discourse, the left kinda appears to want to treat them (Northeasterners) as a discriminated group for being usually looked down by “colder” people from the south, and I mean to use this adjective from an internal Brazilian sense/context. But at the same time that the celebration of this supposedly shared identity is stimulated between themselves, they also get mad if people from outside generalize northeast states lol.

In the most recent Big Brother a girl from Paraíba won as one of the most popular contestants ever and lots of her popularity came from exploiting the idea of a Northeastern identity. Her social media used cactus imagery in her publicity (usually associated to the region semiarid characteristic) and used pictures of her using the “cangaço” hat associated to regional culture:



In the end it’s partially a current cool trend from the moment but I think it’s more than that as well, especially in the long term of things. In the sense that the Northeast will become seen as the moral compass of the country thanks to their opposition against Bolsonaro, since the left has strong power in shaping cultural discussions. Making even left-wing people from other regions want to kiss Northeast’s ass because that’s apparently the cool progressive thing to do. Self-hating southerns and southeasterners feeling guilt about about how their state voted help add fuel to that narrative.

However, it is true that people from northeast sometimes use to be more looked down and treated as less educated when they go to other places because of more negative ideas constructed about Northeast culture and traits. People are just happening to recognize this more often.

[buritobr]

Now I included the maps at municipality level for the runoffs of the presidential elections. The darker is the red, the best is the vote for the PT candidate. The darker is the blue, the best is the vote for the anti-PT candidate

1989: Collor (PRN) 53.0% vs Lula (PT) 47.0%


2002: Lula (PT) 61.3% vs Serra (PSDB) 38.7%


2006: Lula (PT) 60.8% vs Alckmin (PSDB) 39.2%


2010: Dilma (PT) 56.0% vs Serra (PSDB) 44.0%


2014: Dilma (PT) 51.6% vs Aécio (PSDB) 48.4%

[buritobr]

Now, the results of the first round at the municipality level. Only in 2006 only the 2 major candidates won municipalities. In the other presidential elections, minor candidates won some municipalities too.
In 1989, when there were many candidates and no candidate had >40% in the first round, 8 candidates won municipalities in the first round. In 1994, 5. In 1998, 3. In 2002, 4. In 2006, 2. In 2010, 2014 and 2018, 3 candidates.
You can see some municipalities in light gray in the elections in the past because these are areas of municipalities that didn't exist that time. Some municipalities were created recently.

[buritobr]

Since Google Sites became to outdated, I decided to transfer all the content of the Brazil Presidential Election Atlas to this following blog

https://atlasdaseleicoespresidenciaisnobrasil.blogspot.com/

You can see all the total results and results by state of the presidential elections of 1945, 1950, 1955, 1960, 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018
You can see the results by municipality of the presidential elections of 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018
You can also see the results by district of the municipalities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro of the presidential elections of 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018

You can see also a map showing the average vote for the left for each municipality in the presidential elections of 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018


And there is the map of the average vote for the left of the states

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obrigado! Nice work!

[thebeloitmoderate]

This is a very interesting and informative analysis of Brazils regional particularisms. I had no idea the Northeast was becoming more culturally prominent in recent years given Sao Paulo and Rio are so huge. I imagine the last time the Northeast had such relative influence was in the 19th Century or even before independence.
 

Northeast is used to be historically seen as more backwards by people living in the regions south of it because of lesser economic development, “coronelismo” authoritarian politics from early XX century, the more semiarid vegetation, etc. At same time, it’s the region that grows the most since Lula years.

It’s definitely the region with bloodiest history, from being the start of the colonization of the country to the “cangaço” culture that defined the outback area of Brazil for a long time. It was always a really big cultural reference for the country in all areas. In cinema, from 1964’s Black God, White Devil to 2019’s Bacurau.

It’s more that politics is putting them in more spotlight nowadays. The left is always more connected in pushing cultural trends and considering the fact that the Northeast is the left’s stronghold, they become “cool” in the same sense Rio used to be “cool” for being a progressive open-minded state in the past.

Judging by the current discourse, the left kinda appears to want to treat them (Northeasterners) as a discriminated group for being usually looked down by “colder” people from the south, and I mean to use this adjective from an internal Brazilian sense/context. But at the same time that the celebration of this supposedly shared identity is stimulated between themselves, they also get mad if people from outside generalize northeast states lol.

In the most recent Big Brother a girl from Paraíba won as one of the most popular contestants ever and lots of her popularity came from exploiting the idea of a Northeastern identity. Her social media used cactus imagery in her publicity (usually associated to the region semiarid characteristic) and used pictures of her using the “cangaço” hat associated to regional culture:



In the end it’s partially a current cool trend from the moment but I think it’s more than that as well, especially in the long term of things. In the sense that the Northeast will become seen as the moral compass of the country thanks to their opposition against Bolsonaro, since the left has strong power in shaping cultural discussions. Making even left-wing people from other regions want to kiss Northeast’s ass because that’s apparently the cool progressive thing to do. Self-hating southerns and southeasterners feeling guilt about about how their state voted help add fuel to that narrative.

However, it is true that people from northeast sometimes use to be more looked down and treated as less educated when they go to other places because of more negative ideas constructed about Northeast culture and traits. People are just happening to recognize this more often.

Not trying to be off topic but also Rio Grande Do Sul is the homestate of Supermodels Gisele Bundchen and Alessandra Ambrosio 

[buritobr]

Gisele Bundchen endorsed Marina Silva. She cares to issues related to environment.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Those Brazilian maps are weird. Show you we are better off without religion tbh. The Northeast became much more left-wing, so does some part of the deep Amazon region, while the southeast and Rio has turned much to the right.

Also, lol @ the party of Brazilian women, represented by 21 federal duties, only two of them being women. YES YOU HEARD THAT WELL.

[Red Velvet]

Those Brazilian maps are weird. Show you we are better off without religion tbh. The Northeast became much more left-wing, so does some part of the deep Amazon region, while the southeast and Rio has turned much to the right.

Also, lol @ the party of Brazilian women, represented by 21 federal duties, only two of them being women. YES YOU HEARD THAT WELL.

2006 is the year where the shift is visible.

During Lula’s 1st term there was definitely a realignment with the Northeast (poorest region) feeling the most positive impacts, which turned the Northeast region a PT stronghold even if they aren’t necessarily “more progressive” than on the South.

[Continential]

Gisele Bundchen endorsed Marina Silva. She cares to issues related to environment.

Re: Marina Silva, what is with her 2010 performance and her underperformance in other elections?