State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Duke of York]

Get ready to have Samirah sent to Richmond!

Hes a very good looking guy. I suspect he we will get around 65 precent of the vote. I dont the scandal will have much of an effect. Northern Virginia is changing rapidly.

[Duke of York]

Woohoo pumped for Ibraheem Samirah! Less than an hour to go!

Result link

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2019%20February%2019%20Special/Site/Locality/Index.html

Pumped for a rabid Jew-hater? I'm disappointed in you, Bagel.

he is far from that

[Duke of York]

It's going to be a small Dem underperformance against the Clinton numbers I think, but there's no risk of losing the seat.

Probably the independent candidate siphoning off votes.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1098018212795633664

He's pretty substantially underperforming the baseline here, but it turns out that a Clinton +34 district is simply too blue to elect a Republican. Shocking, I know.

Probably a result of his comments he apologized  for. Democrats are probably still favored to take the state legislature in November

[Duke of York]

Yeah the Dems down on Northam, but still easily winning this thing. Not hard to see why, what with the personal and statewide scandals.

I think it's more personal than anything. The statewide scandal news died out a week ago.

This

[Duke of York]

Samirah got this!

More than likely and even though its a slight underperformance due to the independent candidate Democrats will likely still wrest control of the State Legislature in November

[Duke of York]

GOPmentum. MAGA!

There is no evidence to suggest that. Samirah was a flawed candidate and he still routed. Plus using a incumbents performance as a basis for a open seat isnt a good indicator. A better one is when the seat was last open and he performed 6 points better than then

[Duke of York]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

[Duke of York]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

It's really hard to gain any sort of partisan understanding from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race given that it's non-partisan.

The party affiliations of the candidates are well known though

[Duke of York]

Who do you think wins the KY-SD-31 special? Seat located in Eastern KY went to Trump 80-18 but is Democratic downballot.

I would not be the least bit surprised if it flips. It wont mean much if it does. If the special election for the Pennsylvania senate fails to flip that would be cause for serious concern

[Duke of York]

Anyone who thought that Trump almost winning Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania in 2016 was not a fluke has been proven dead wrong today.

Seems like there is serious buyers remorse in Pennsylvania. A good sign for 2020. That region is key to a democratic victory