State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Guys, OF F[inks]ING COURSE THEY WEREN’T GOING TO KEEP OVDRPERFORMING. That’s generally what happens after you have a successful election. Trend currently is concerning but we’ll see how it goes with time. Worth noting that presidentials do have different dynamics than midterms due to the fact that everything in pretty much every race is swayed by how the national candidates so far.

Also we’ve been sliding in CT for a while; especially considering the margin in the gov race vs national environment.

I’m not entirely relaxed about it; it’s worrisome. But not time for panic mode just yet either.

2018 was not a successful election by any stretch of the imagination for Democrats. They missed the mark on all the parameters that measure Democratic success tooled for the 2018 elections:

Success in House: Do Democrats have 243 or more seats in the House? No, failure of a cycle.
Success in Senate: Do Democrats have 51 or more seats in the Senate? No, failure of a cycle.
Success in Governorships: Do Democrats have 30 or more total Governorships? No, failure of a cycle.

2018 was a complete failure for the Democrats on every level.

Those marks you've arbitrarily set are absolutely absurd.

30 governorships?

243+ house seats?


Give me a break.

[Zaybay]

Ill set up some actually viable parameters:

Success in House: Did the Democrats win the chamber? Yes, success for the Dems.
Bonus- Did the Democrats win a comfortable majority in the chamber? Yes, uber-success for the Dems.

Success in Senate: Did the Democrats hold the Rs to either one net gain or better? No, failure of a cycle.

Success in Governorships: Did the Democrats win key Redistricting States? Sort of, mixed cycle.

And there you have it.

[Brittain33]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

[Duke of York]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

[Gass3268]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

It's really hard to gain any sort of partisan understanding from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race given that it's non-partisan.

[Duke of York]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

It's really hard to gain any sort of partisan understanding from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race given that it's non-partisan.

The party affiliations of the candidates are well known though

[Gass3268]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

It's really hard to gain any sort of partisan understanding from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race given that it's non-partisan.

The party affiliations of the candidates are well known though

To those in the know, but not everyone.

[Brittain33]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

It's really hard to gain any sort of partisan understanding from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race given that it's non-partisan.

The party affiliations of the candidates are well known though

To those in the know, but not everyone.

Yes, but do those others vote?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Schedule through 4/2

3/5 - TX HD 145 Runoff (D v D), KY SD 31, RI HD 68
3/12 - GA HD 176 Runoff (R v R), TX HD 125 Runoff, ME HD 124, MS HD 32, 71, 101 , PA HD 114, 190 , TN SD 32
3/19 - IA SD 30, MN HD 11B
3/26 - SC SD 6
3/30 - LA Runoffs - HD 17 (D v D), 18, 62 (R v I)
4/2 - ME HD 52, PA SD 37, and any needed MS Runoffs

CA SD 1 and 33 have their first rounds on March 26. I just got my ballot (SD 1) yesterday. Saw a few Kevin Kiley signs when I went up 80 to Reno over the weekend.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just saw a Raja ad for the special election here (SD-37) where it used Bernie Sanders and AOC to attack Pam Iovino.

[Politician]

Who do you think wins the KY-SD-31 special? Seat located in Eastern KY went to Trump 80-18 but is Democratic downballot.

[Duke of York]

Who do you think wins the KY-SD-31 special? Seat located in Eastern KY went to Trump 80-18 but is Democratic downballot.

I would not be the least bit surprised if it flips. It wont mean much if it does. If the special election for the Pennsylvania senate fails to flip that would be cause for serious concern

[Mr.Phips]

Who do you think wins the KY-SD-31 special? Seat located in Eastern KY went to Trump 80-18 but is Democratic downballot.

Funny thing this area is that John Kerry tied Bush here as recently as 2004.  This is probably one of the biggest swings of anywhere in the country.

[lfromnj]

IMO the Minnesota 11b is a tossup. Obama only lost the area by 4 points

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

3 Specials Today!!!

Kentucky SD 31 (6 ET): Not seeing a page yet
TX HD 145 Runoff (D v D) (8 ET): https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/mar05_341_state.htm
RI HD 68 (8 ET): Not seeing a page yet

[Canis]

Theirs a bunch of specials going on in la county today the last county young Democrats have been canvassing like crazy for em seems like they could be competitive with such low turnout

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Theirs a bunch of specials going on in la county today the last county young Democrats have been canvassing like crazy for em seems like they could be competitive with such low turnout

Whatever it is, it's not state legislative stuff, those are on March 26 for CA.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls are about to close in Kentucky. Its a classic blue dog district - dems still hold some seats in the state house around here. However, the massive Trump PVI means it should be an easy lift for republicans, unless something is wrong. If dems hold the seat, it means Bevins approval is having an effect, or other local factors are still in the dems favor.

[Politician]

cue Limo in 3 2 1

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still waiting for the SOS to put up the supposed results page they said they'd have.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Come on Pugh

[Zaybay]

Waiting for the "Dems are in Disarray, they are losing all momentum, etc, etc." take if Pugh loses this Trump 80/20 seat.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Appears the Special Election was canceled at the last minute by the SOS, there's no results page anywhere.

See you back here for TX (D v D) and maybe RI at 8.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Appears the Special Election was canceled at the last minute by the SOS, there's no results page anywhere.

See you back here for TX (D v D) and maybe RI at 8.

Excuse me?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Appears the Special Election was canceled at the last minute by the SOS, there's no results page anywhere.

See you back here for TX (D v D) and maybe RI at 8.

Excuse me?

The SOS twitter account posted a link to results when polls closed, but the link goes to 2018 results, and the "calendar" part of the page shows the dates for the Governor Election.

Appears there's no actual election. Several twitter accounts, including my own, have replied to the SOS asking for a real link, to no avail.