State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[smoltchanov]

Someone on reddit who lives in GA HD-176 (he's a Democrat, for the record) had this to say about the race that would explain a lot:
"From my point of view this was always a two man race between Patten and Burchett with the majority of people not even knowing that the two Democrats ran. Patten is a Democrat turned moderate Republican (if there's even such a thing anymore) and Burchett is a Trump cultist. The race was framed as the Republican Burchett vs the Democrat Patten so I suspect an inconveniently large number of Democratic votes went to Patten"

Finally - good explanation of results.

Or just dem excuses for another sh!t performance.

Neither of the Democratic candidates had money to turn out voters and the local Democratic county committees are decimated (if they even exist).

It's surely not a problem of Republicans or even local ordinary voters. It's a problem of local Democratic county committees AND activists (if they even exist)....

[Gustaf]

Next special election is on the 19th in VA HD 86. It's a safely democratic district that Clinton carried by 35 points - but Republicans are contesting the race, and the margin will tell us a lot about the impact of Northamgate and whether the disappointment we've seen in Minnesota and Georgia is being reflected elsewhere in the country.

Will it indeed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Next special election is on the 19th in VA HD 86. It's a safely democratic district that Clinton carried by 35 points - but Republicans are contesting the race, and the margin will tell us a lot about the impact of Northamgate and whether the disappointment we've seen in Minnesota and Georgia is being reflected elsewhere in the country.

Isn't this the election where the Dem candidate posted antisemitic stuff on facebook?
If yes then maybe he'll underperform, so you'll have the chance to declare again the Democrats demise.

[smoltchanov]

Next special election is on the 19th in VA HD 86. It's a safely democratic district that Clinton carried by 35 points - but Republicans are contesting the race, and the margin will tell us a lot about the impact of Northamgate and whether the disappointment we've seen in Minnesota and Georgia is being reflected elsewhere in the country.

Isn't this the election where the Dem candidate posted antisemitic stuff on facebook?
If yes then maybe he'll underperform, so you'll have the chance to declare again the Democrats demise.

Progressive Democrats are antisemits now?? When i began to study US politics these usually were some far-right Republicans (plus some KKK-oriented Southern Democrats)

[Drew]

Evers calls special election for Peter Barca’s (D) old seat, AD-64 in Kenosha.  Primary on April 2 (alongside spring general elections), general special election on April 30.  This is Safe D and I wouldn’t be surprised if no Republican runs, so the primary could essentially be the election.  Two Dems have announced so far. 

https://www.wispolitics.com/2019/evers-orders-special-election-to-fill-barca-assembly-seat/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[DINGO Joe]

Someone on reddit who lives in GA HD-176 (he's a Democrat, for the record) had this to say about the race that would explain a lot:
"From my point of view this was always a two man race between Patten and Burchett with the majority of people not even knowing that the two Democrats ran. Patten is a Democrat turned moderate Republican (if there's even such a thing anymore) and Burchett is a Trump cultist. The race was framed as the Republican Burchett vs the Democrat Patten so I suspect an inconveniently large number of Democratic votes went to Patten"

Finally - good explanation of results.

Somebody may have voted for one R or the other on the basis of ideology, but the vote by county makes it obvious that geography was the overriding factor as one guy won the east county overwhelmingly and the other guy won the west two overwhelmingly and the one in the middle was the only close one. 

[Adam Griffin]

Late to the party, but as somebody who tracked all state legislative special elections throughout the 2017-18 cycle, bad performances in rural GA and TX specifically are not surprising nor out of the norm.

I've written about this numerous times even before the 2018 election, but with the case of GA specifically, Democrats underperformed in just about every area of the state save those with very large white populations (and next to no black population), because - surprise, surprise - the special election surges for Democrats that we saw throughout the first 2 years of Trump's presidency were built almost exclusively on the backs of old white voters showing up (why do you think the biggest gains were in the Midwest?), and in the South, the larger the black population, the more immovable the white population tends to be politically. Furthermore, in GA (and to a degree, throughout the South), the black populations tend to be much younger than the white populations - and who is likely to vote in special elections?

It's also worth noting that the more of a clusterf[inks]k a race is, the better GOP candidates tend to do. My area had both a special State House and State Senate election in 2017. Ultimately in 2018, Abrams did better in my district (HD-4) than Carter did - yet in the 2017 HD special, the Democrat got half the normal vote share (Abrams was in the low 30s, and the HD Dem was ~15%); a large & young minority (Latino) population coupled with the fact that it was a 4-way race (3 R, 1 D) tends to lead to more voters in the minority voting for their "preferred" GOP candidate making it to a likely runoff.

Additionally, in the overlapping, substantially whiter State Senate special (SD 54) several months earlier, the Democratic candidate improved on Clinton's margin by more than 25 points in the runoff (65-35 as opposed to 78-20).

These kinds of dynamics don't lead to better performances for Democrats in special elections in the rural South - and GA was one of only two states where the average state legislative special margin was worse than the 2016 presidential margin:

* Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections

[ON Progressive]

A competitive special election will happen in the Iowa State Senate.

Jeff Danielson (D) has resigned over the scandal of an abusive work environment at a local fire station, opening up a special election in a seat Hillary carried 48-45 and Hubbell carried 53-45.

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/02/14/jeff-danielson-resigns-from-iowa-senate-opens-up-swing-district/

[Politician]

A competitive special election will happen in the Iowa State Senate.

Jeff Danielson (D) has resigned over the scandal of an abusive work environment at a local fire station, opening up a special election in a seat Hillary carried 48-45 and Hubbell carried 53-45.

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/02/14/jeff-danielson-resigns-from-iowa-senate-opens-up-swing-district/

We should be able to hold this, right?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm pretty sure the GOP don't hold a single Hillary-won district in Iowa, so yeah, D hold.

[ON Progressive]

A competitive special election will happen in the Iowa State Senate.

Jeff Danielson (D) has resigned over the scandal of an abusive work environment at a local fire station, opening up a special election in a seat Hillary carried 48-45 and Hubbell carried 53-45.

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/02/14/jeff-danielson-resigns-from-iowa-senate-opens-up-swing-district/

We should be able to hold this, right?

Oh yeah, we should have no trouble holding a seat that's 10+ points more Democratic than the state.

[Badger]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

[Badger]

Here's some context for you deniers - a Republican has 37% in the Texas seat. Trump got 33% there in 2016, and Cruz probably got like 28%.

Only one takeaway from these special elections: Republicans surging.

Back to the same old shtick, eh?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Get ready to have Samirah sent to Richmond!

[Duke of York]

Get ready to have Samirah sent to Richmond!

Hes a very good looking guy. I suspect he we will get around 65 precent of the vote. I dont the scandal will have much of an effect. Northern Virginia is changing rapidly.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Get ready to have Samirah sent to Richmond!

Hes a very good looking guy. I suspect he we will get around 65 precent of the vote. I dont the scandal will have much of an effect. Northern Virginia is changing rapidly.

I think he wins 66-30, safe D, I think there is an indy candidate. I don’t think scandals impact him hardly at all, scandals hardly impact these days unless they are massive.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Woohoo pumped for Ibraheem Samirah! Less than an hour to go!

Result link

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2019%20February%2019%20Special/Site/Locality/Index.html

[LimoLiberal]

Woohoo pumped for Ibraheem Samirah! Less than an hour to go!

Result link

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2019%20February%2019%20Special/Site/Locality/Index.html

Pumped for a rabid Jew-hater? I'm disappointed in you, Bagel.

[Duke of York]

Woohoo pumped for Ibraheem Samirah! Less than an hour to go!

Result link

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2019%20February%2019%20Special/Site/Locality/Index.html

Pumped for a rabid Jew-hater? I'm disappointed in you, Bagel.

he is far from that

[slothdem]

It's going to be a small Dem underperformance against the Clinton numbers I think, but there's no risk of losing the seat.

[Duke of York]

It's going to be a small Dem underperformance against the Clinton numbers I think, but there's no risk of losing the seat.

Probably the independent candidate siphoning off votes.

[Strong Candidate]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1098018212795633664

He's pretty substantially underperforming the baseline here, but it turns out that a Clinton +34 district is simply too blue to elect a Republican. Shocking, I know.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah the Dems down on Northam, but still easily winning this thing. Not hard to see why, what with the personal and statewide scandals.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1098018212795633664

He's pretty substantially underperforming the baseline here, but it turns out that a Clinton +34 district is simply too blue to elect a Republican. Shocking, I know.

Probably a result of his comments he apologized  for. Democrats are probably still favored to take the state legislature in November

[ON Progressive]

Yeah the Dems down on Northam, but still easily winning this thing. Not hard to see why, what with the personal and statewide scandals.

I think it's more personal than anything. The statewide scandal news died out a week ago.