State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2  (Read 169036 times)
Duke of York
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« Reply #1400 on: February 19, 2019, 07:41:26 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker/Sen.-Elect ON Progressive on February 19, 2019, 07:40:26 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 19, 2019, 07:38:40 PM
Yeah the Dems down on Northam, but still easily winning this thing. Not hard to see why, what with the personal and statewide scandals.

I think it's more personal than anything. The statewide scandal news died out a week ago.

This
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1401 on: February 19, 2019, 07:50:26 PM »
Samirah got this!
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1402 on: February 19, 2019, 07:52:29 PM »

More than likely and even though its a slight underperformance due to the independent candidate Democrats will likely still wrest control of the State Legislature in November
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1403 on: February 19, 2019, 08:03:10 PM »
Samirah only did ~4% worse than Hillary vote share wise in the seat. Hardly anything to worry about, given the candidate was quite bad.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1404 on: February 19, 2019, 08:08:18 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2019, 08:16:31 PM by Lou Barletta's Teeth »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker/Sen.-Elect ON Progressive on February 19, 2019, 07:40:26 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 19, 2019, 07:38:40 PM
Yeah the Dems down on Northam, but still easily winning this thing. Not hard to see why, what with the personal and statewide scandals.

I think it's more personal than anything. The statewide scandal news died out a week ago.

Yeah, there's been virtually nothing on Northam/Fairfax, it's definitely candidate quality, and the Democrat still romped here.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1405 on: February 19, 2019, 08:11:10 PM »
how much did hillary win by?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1406 on: February 19, 2019, 08:11:35 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2019, 08:18:10 PM by Lou Barletta's Teeth »
So it ended up being Samirah (D) +25, an 7-point swing from 2016 from the Democrats. I wouldn't panic about this since most of the vote that went away from us was to the independent candidate. Plus, Samirah has a pretty big anti-semitism scandal and that didn't stop him from pulling off a landslide victory, not to mention turnout was around 7%.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1407 on: February 20, 2019, 02:26:45 AM »
Frankly I expected this guy to do worse after his vile facebook posts came out.
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136or142
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« Reply #1408 on: February 20, 2019, 03:16:15 AM »

Hillary Clinton carried the district 65% to 30% in 2016

https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections/2019/02/19/democrats-hold-but-slide-in-northern-virginia-special-election/
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1409 on: February 20, 2019, 07:08:07 AM »

He wrote that Israel was worse than the KKK and claimed that the Jewish teenagers are somehow using Tinder to cover up murders committed in their names.
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Politician
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« Reply #1410 on: February 20, 2019, 08:32:18 AM »
Another embarrassing underperformance. Get ready for the red wave in 2020, folks.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1411 on: February 20, 2019, 09:49:00 AM »
Quote from: Politician on February 20, 2019, 08:32:18 AM
Another embarrassing underperformance. Get ready for the red wave in 2020, folks.

Not guaranteed. But - possible. Especially if 15-20 Democratic presidential candidates will cut themselves into small pieces and rather unelectable candidate will be a nominee. This may lead to Trump victory, even with Trump being personally unpopular, and this, in turn,  may cause a sort of wave. Not because Republican party and it's candidates will be good (that's highly unlikely), but - because Democratic may be very bad.... Of course - it's only a scenario, but - it's possible...
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1412 on: February 20, 2019, 10:00:48 AM »
Quote from: smoltchanov on February 20, 2019, 09:49:00 AM
Quote from: Politician on February 20, 2019, 08:32:18 AM
Another embarrassing underperformance. Get ready for the red wave in 2020, folks.

Not guaranteed. But - possible. Especially if 15-20 Democratic presidential candidates will cut themselves into small pieces and rather unelectable candidate will be a nominee. This may lead to Trump victory, even with Trump being personally unpopular, and this, in turn,  may cause a sort of wave. Not because Republican party and it's candidates will be good (that's highly unlikely), but - because Democratic may be very bad.... Of course - it's only a scenario, but - it's possible...

He’s being sarcastic
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1413 on: February 20, 2019, 12:32:46 PM »
Actually this is a decent performance. Could have been far worse with the candidate having personal scandals and the Northam/Fairfax/Herring stuff.

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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1414 on: February 20, 2019, 12:37:12 PM »
Big day in Louisiana on Saturday. SEVEN House Seats are up for election - 4 previously held by Republicans (12, 27, 47, and 62), and three previously held by Democrats (17, 18, 26). All are jungle primaries, any needed runoffs would be held March 30.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1415 on: February 20, 2019, 01:08:25 PM »
Quote from: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on February 20, 2019, 12:37:12 PM
Big day in Louisiana on Saturday. SEVEN House Seats are up for election - 4 previously held by Republicans (12, 27, 47, and 62), and three previously held by Democrats (17, 18, 26). All are jungle primaries, any needed runoffs would be held March 30.

Less so, then it seems initially. In 12th and 47th both candidates are Republicans, in 26th - two Democrats, in 17th - 4 Democrats. 27th has 1 Republican and 1 Democrat, but, with 86% for Trump, is not especially interesting too. 18th (4D, 2R) and 62th (4D, 1R, 1I), and 59 and 58% Trump, are the only two, where an intrigue (at least from party point of view) exist.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1416 on: February 20, 2019, 10:38:48 PM »
GOPmentum. MAGA!
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1417 on: February 21, 2019, 12:08:41 AM »

There is no evidence to suggest that. Samirah was a flawed candidate and he still routed. Plus using a incumbents performance as a basis for a open seat isnt a good indicator. A better one is when the seat was last open and he performed 6 points better than then
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Beet
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« Reply #1418 on: February 21, 2019, 12:13:31 AM »
Quote from: Duke of York on February 21, 2019, 12:08:41 AM

There is no evidence to suggest that. Samirah was a flawed candidate and he still routed. Plus using a incumbents performance as a basis for a open seat isnt a good indicator. A better one is when the seat was last open and he performed 6 points better than then

Lol does every Virginia Dem have a scandal?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1419 on: February 21, 2019, 07:55:23 AM »
Quote from: Beet on February 21, 2019, 12:13:31 AM
Quote from: Duke of York on February 21, 2019, 12:08:41 AM

There is no evidence to suggest that. Samirah was a flawed candidate and he still routed. Plus using a incumbents performance as a basis for a open seat isnt a good indicator. A better one is when the seat was last open and he performed 6 points better than then

Lol does every Virginia Dem have a scandal?

Virginia's new state slogan: Scandal in the Wind.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1420 on: February 23, 2019, 09:05:35 PM »
Democrats have a combined 76% of the vote in HD-18 in LA, a district that Trump won 59% of the vote in. Quite impressive. Wouldn't be a flip, however.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1421 on: February 23, 2019, 09:09:58 PM »
In the other contested elections, Democrats have a combined 18% in HD-62, where Trump received 58% of the vote. An Independent has 24% and the Republican has 57%, which would prevent a runoff.

In HD-27, the other R vs. D election, the D has 7% of the vote. Trump received 86% in this seat. Another collapse for Dems in rural America. Not a flip, just a poor performance.

All the other elections are R vs. R or D vs. D.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1422 on: February 23, 2019, 09:49:17 PM »
Looks like HD-18 could be D vs D
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1423 on: February 23, 2019, 10:11:15 PM »
Quote from: The Inevitable Kevin Stitt on February 23, 2019, 10:03:22 PM

Am I missing something here? Because can someone please explain to me how Democrats are combining for 74% of the vote in a seat Trump won by 15 or some-odd points?

The leading guy is a white conservative demosaur. Probably has pictures of him in blackface in his ads to get the hick vote.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1424 on: February 23, 2019, 10:11:39 PM »
Quote from: The Inevitable Kevin Stitt on February 23, 2019, 10:03:22 PM

Am I missing something here? Because can someone please explain to me how Democrats are combining for 74% of the vote in a seat Trump won by 15 or some-odd points?
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