MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

One of the House members will run. They passed on the 2012 race because they would've had to give up their seat to try for a promotion. That's not the case with a special.

Would Patrick running clear the Dem field of serious challengers? I suspect not, but want the local eye view.

I think he could, if he played his cards right. If he got a "serious challenger," I would presume it just to be someone making a faux statewide bid to raise name recognition for a run at governor in 2014.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Rep. Markey seems to be all but in the race.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Who'd have an advantage in that primary? Capuano got thumped by Coakley and Lynch is too conservative for liberals, so Markey?

The more people that jump into the race, the better Lynch's chances. There are a lot of conservative, pro-life Democrats in Massachusetts in the Lynch mold. Not enough to win a one-on-one primary, but certainly enough to win a clusterf*** primary.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Didn't he spend all his money in the campaign? I assume he's in debt. Meanwhile, Capuano and Markey haven't had a competitive race in at least a decade and presumably have a lot of cash with which to introduce themselves to the state.

Though Markey and Capuano haven't had a real race ever, they only have $3M and $0.5M cash on hand respectively. That's really not much of a head start when you need at least $15M to play the game; probably $25M or more if Brown runs.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like Brown is about $6 or $7M in debt.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Honestly, the legislature should just change the law again and save the state a whole lot of money on a statewide special election. The seat is up in 2014 anyway, there's no reason an appointment can't last until then.

It'd look awfully self-serving to change the law yet again to avoid an imminent possibility of a Republican Senator.

Why would that stop the Massachusetts General Court?

Though they may be self-serving partisans, Massachusetts Democrats do have shame.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Were did you hear about that debt?

I thought he was 200k in the black.

Oops! I wasn't accounting for the money he had left over after his 2010 race. After a little bit more research, I found a more recent campaign finance story. Brown is in the black by $400K.

http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/12/scott_brown_ends_campaign_with.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Does Massachusetts have open or closed primaries? If it has open primaries, I could see Brown supporters, mostly Republican crossing over and voting for Lynch in the primary, both to give their guy a better shot in the general and to pick the most conservative candidate from the Democratic side.

Massachusetts is semi-closed. If you've declared as an R or D, you need to vote in that primary. If you didn't declare a party when you registered to vote, you can cast a ballot in either primary without having to join a party.

Approximately 52% of voters in Massachusetts are "unenrolled" -- that is, they can vote in either party's primary. Republicans make up just 11%, and are hardly in a position to affect the Democratic primary's outcome.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I see. Anyway, my point was that the Unions' main interest is always to have the Democrat candidate (whoever it is) win.

That's not so cut-and-dry in New England. A lot of Republicans there are pro-labor. Not necessarily Scott Brown, but Republicans always seem to chase after union endorsements when they're incumbents.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

A lot of Republicans there are pro-labor.

Even at the federal level though? I think it's pretty safe to assume any Congressional Republican is going to vote against the working class' interests >95% of the time - or be thrown out of the party.

A full 0 of 0 New England Republicans in the U.S. House support working class interests. But I suppose that's tempered a bit by the fact that all 0 of 0 New England Republicans in the U.S. House actually support unions' and workers' rights.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

https://twitter.com/scottbrownma/status/294988208343769089

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

How messy will this get, Bay Staters?

At this point, regardless of the result, I'm not expecting the process to be at all pretty.

It doesn't help that the Democratic candidates are ... sub-optimal.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm disapointed that Markey is the best we can do. I'm sure he would be a good senator, but the Democrats need to do a much better job at pushing along young risers for these jobs. There wasn't someone in the State Senate that could of ran?

It opens up Markey's house seat for an up and comer, at least.

I guess you're right about that. Anyone have any names?

Carl Sciortino is the dream candidate you're looking for, I think.

Carl Sciortino isn't from that district. Markey represents Metrowest; Sciortino is from Medford/Somerville.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm disapointed that Markey is the best we can do. I'm sure he would be a good senator, but the Democrats need to do a much better job at pushing along young risers for these jobs. There wasn't someone in the State Senate that could of ran?

It opens up Markey's house seat for an up and comer, at least.

I guess you're right about that. Anyone have any names?

Carl Sciortino is the dream candidate you're looking for, I think.

Carl Sciortino isn't from that district. Markey represents Metrowest; Sciortino is from Medford/Somerville.

Part of Carl's district, including his home, is in the district, which is half Metrowest and half north suburban Boston. Medford is in the 5th district, Somerville in the 7th. That said, yes, 4 precincts in Medford is not a broad base for becoming a congressman.

Metrowest is very insular. I feel like the Democrats who matter in places like Framingham would strongly prefer one of their own — that is, a suburban Democrat rather than an urban one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Former U.S. Attorney Mike Sullivan (R) has not officially announced a run, but he is circulating signature petitions while he "decides." State Sen. Bruce Tarr says Sullivan is 98% likely to run.

Meanwhile, Sean Bielat is looking at a run, too. We could have a primary on the GOP side, which would be very interesting and insanely low turnout affair with a Dem primary occurring at the same time.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Possibly five, wasn't it? Bennett, Gomez, Winslow, Bielat, and Sullivan. Unless Bennett or Gomez has dropped out over the past few days without my noticing.

Only two will wind up making the ballot, maybe three at most, if Bielat still has an organized volunteer base in place. The signature hurdle is brutal for Mass Republicans.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

All 3 Republican candidates -- Sullivan, Winslow, and Gomez -- will be on the primary ballot. Supposedly, Gomez paid $8-14 per signature to grind his way to the 10,000 hurdle.