COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[emailking]

That's the lowest deaths I remember in a while. That's good.

I would have thoughts deaths as a lagging indicator would have caught up with these 20,000 a day cases by now so maybe it really is just due to more testing or the virus is less deadly or something.

[emailking]

A Tuesday below 1K deaths is very good.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1273597096105521155

[emailking]

Today I heard news about a British study that found blood type is apparently connected to heavily course of Covid19 (here is a report). According to the study, blood type A has a 50% higher risk for heavy symptoms, while blood type 0 has the lowest risk.

It's kinda interesting because I remember a conversation at lunch with my boss from February and March and I said to him that I believe more unknown factors determine how mild or how bad the disease turns out. One suggestion I raised was blood type. I didn't read anything like that at the time and I have no deeper knowledge of medical issues in general, I was just guessing.

The card in my wallet says I'm B+. I guess that's middle of the road risk.

[emailking]

Isn't it just an informal term? Like who cares if this is the 2nd wave or part of the first. Unless there's a clear definition we can evaluate then it's just a matter of opinion.

[emailking]

Are people still seriously citing case numbers?

Yes.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=370528.msg7405122#msg7405122

[emailking]

Ok well yes we're still seriously citing case numbers. Today's looking pretty bad at about 32K, even more than Brazil, and it's Saturday.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1274500811486228482

[emailking]

Why would it evolve to be less deadly? If it killed too fast too spread I could understand that but most people aren't killed. Just random?

[emailking]

also u guys do realize that if they do quarantine again, a lot more people are going to die of suicide, drug overdose, alcoholism or what have u then will probably be killed by the virus. at least I imagine so.

I am aware it has been suggested but am doubtful of the veracity. I am open to any evidence that suggests otherwise.

[emailking]

Does the high blood pressure risk factor go away if it's lowered by medication?

[emailking]

More of this crap.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1275381670561095682

[emailking]

Well if this is not the 2nd wave, like people keep saying, then that means we didn't peak in April. We didn't peak until maybe just now. And we maybe haven't peaked yet either.

[emailking]

Gee, I wonder why cases are spiking again in Florida.

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1275912010555932672

I don't think "temperatured" is a word...

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276184906159271937

[emailking]

Looks like today was another record and we still haven't peaked.

[emailking]

You know, if we had adopted the strict lockdown nationally for three weeks back in March or April like I had asked for, we could have already nearly defeated the virus. We could be reopen without having to go back and forth, which just screws businesses over even more.

Unless we also closed the borders to everyone, including citizens, ever since, couldn't we just be in the same situation now anyway?

[emailking]

Looks like we're going to smash the record today.

[emailking]

Looks like we're going to smash the record today.

Yes, lowest Friday death toll since March 27.  Thank God!

I acknowledged like a week ago that deaths don't seem to be going up with cases anymore, but the infection is a major problem even if it doesn't kill you.

[emailking]

I'd still like to know why the virus would evolve to be less deadly. If it's killing 1% or less I don't see what the selection pressure would be to become less deadly. Unless it really is just random (which is possible of course). Younger people getting the virus in increased numbers seem to me like a more plausible way to explain the lower death rates.

[emailking]

I read a post/article on Iran's COVID-19 response that seems relevant.  Iran experienced a second wave similar to what we are experiencing now (rising cases, lower average age of of cases, but not yet seeing a corresponding rise in deaths).  Deaths didn't spike initially but did 3-4 weeks later after the younger people passed the virus onto other subgroups (elderly, etc.) more likely to die from the virus.

This is not a second wave. This is a revival of the first wave, instigated by bad policy and worse community practices.

I wasn't claiming that the US is experiencing a second wave.  I agree we are still in the first wave.  I was referencing Iran's second wave.

"Iran experienced a second wave similar to what we are experiencing now." The "what" is ambiguous, and lends itself to be interpreted as a pronominal equivalent of "second wave."

Thanks for the clarification.

I think it's all semantics anyway. Cases are never going to go to 0, so it's subjective when the first wave has ended.

[emailking]

For a wave to end, the numbers have to plateau at a low non-zero number for a while, and then start a new curve. The U.S. never managed to do that to begin with.

Still subjective though. What's low? What's a plateau? It's not a formal term (wave) as far as I'm aware.

[emailking]

I'm just shocked at the people who think everyone should wear a mask 100% of the time. Honestly, how much is too much?

I can see where a mask would have some usefulness in very high risk situations, but is it really necessary to wear it all the time? I've experimented, and I can't go more than a few minutes without it being hard to breathe.

I can appreciate it on some very crowded mass transit vehicles I've been on, but not in low risk situations.

We don't expect you to wear a mask if you have a medical condition that makes it impractical. I can wear the mask for like an hour before it becomes bothersome to me. You should wear it all of the time indoors (if not your residence) unless you are in a private enclosed area by yourself, like in an office. You should wear it outside if you're going to be close to others you don't live with.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/ThatGuy3002/status/1277364577777442816

[emailking]

Let's assume that this trend continues for another day. There will be 9 tests with 5000% positivity the next day.

Are you familiar with the expression GIGO? Garbage In, Garbage Out.

That's your model you're throwing garbage into. There's no reason to think the trend will continue or that it would continue at a linear rate of increase.