CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Calthrina950]

Lauren Boebert is currently leading Diane Mitsch-Bush by 3% in the only "competitive" race of note in Colorado. My hunch is that she's going to win.

[Calthrina950]

Lauren Boebert is currently leading Diane Mitsch-Bush by 3% in the only "competitive" race of note in Colorado. My hunch is that she's going to win.

An update to this: Boebert is now leading Mitsch-Bush 49-47%. As I anticipated, this one is coming down to the wire, and Mitsch-Bush still has a shot.

[Calthrina950]

Not feeling great about the Senate. The 2018 Senate elections remain a low-key disaster.

There haven't been any surprises whatsoever thus far, and Tillis is outperforming Trump in North Carolina-contrary to most previous polls. Perhaps Cunningham's sexting scandal had a more significant impact on the outcome of that race than we previously thought.

[Calthrina950]

Boebert is now up by 5% in CO-03. I don't think Mitsch-Bush is going to win at this point.

[Calthrina950]

Why is Susan Collins doing so much better than Trump in Maine?

Residual crossover appeal from her prior landslide wins in the state, similar to what enabled Joe Manchin to eke out reelection in West Virginia in 2018. It's looking like Collins could very well win by a similar margin.

[Calthrina950]

NYT calls it for Bice and Gonzales.

Which district is this?

[Calthrina950]

NYT calls it for Bice and Gonzales.

Which district is this?

TX-23.

Hurd's district!? If Gonzales does win-because Ortiz-Jones is refusing to concede defeat from what I've read-that would definitely be a pleasant surprise for Republicans, since most-especially on this forum-thought that this seat was all but gone for them. But it's not too surprising, given the extent to which Biden is underperforming in the Rio Grande Valley. I think Trump's improvement with Hispanics saved him in Texas and in Florida.

[Calthrina950]

In IN-05, Victoria Spartz (R) leads Christina Hale (D) 52-44.

Republicans are going to hold that seat. Wagner also won reelection in MO-02, so the litany of disappointments for Democrats in the House and Senate stretches even longer.

[Calthrina950]

AP calls CO-03 for Boebert.

That does it. With Boebert winning in such a favorable environment for Democrats in Colorado, it's clear that this district is beyond reach for them. And with Southern Colorado trending further to the right, Boebert will become entrenched and should have no problems winning reelection in 2022 and beyond.

[Calthrina950]

KS-SEN: Marshall leads Bollier by 13 points with 98% of the vote in.

Strong candidate Roger Marshall was real. With the eventual NUT map, he'll ascend not only to the Senate but to Valhalla where electoral titans like John Cornyn reside.

Marshall, Cornyn, Graham, Tuberville, and Collins all significantly outperformed expectations last night.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1324769025533116417

Trump substantially outperformed McConnell, Hyde-Smith, Tuberville, Inhofe, Marshall, Daines, Risch, and the losing Republican nominees in Oregon, Virginia, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. In turn, he ran behind Gardner, Lummis, Sasse, Rounds, Ronchetti, Cornyn, Cassidy, Perdue, Hagerty, and most importantly (and startlingly of all), the great Susan Collins.

[Calthrina950]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

And as with Collins, there was a third-party candidate that arguably played a role in saving Manchin from defeat. Rusty Hollen, the Libertarian nominee in West Virginia's Senate race, received 4.17%. Moreover, Manchin only won with a plurality. It's conceivable that Morrisey may have won had Hollen not been on the ballot. But it's not a complete comparison, because Collins garnered a majority even with Savage on the ballot, and would have been subject to RCV had she not done so.

[Calthrina950]

Dems losing two House seats in Iowa while expecting to defeat Ernst would be hilarious.

And Axne may be on borrowed time, and could easily go down to defeat in 2022. Moreover, what happened in the race between Feenstra and Scholten? I'm assuming that Feenstra won by double digits, since he's not Steve King?

[Calthrina950]

Dems losing two House seats in Iowa while expecting to defeat Ernst would be hilarious.

And Axne may be on borrowed time, and could easily go down to defeat in 2022. Moreover, what happened in the race between Feenstra and Scholten? I'm assuming that Feenstra won by double digits, since he's not Steve King?

Feenstra won by 25 points.

Not surprising at all.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326369139452239872

It seems like Young Kim will have her revenge! I still remember how she participated in the freshman group that was photographed on the steps of the U.S. Capitol soon after the midterms in 2018, only to lose the seat once all of the ballots had been counted. This time, she will be there as a legitimate Representative-Elect.

[Calthrina950]

AP calls AK-AL for Don Young (R).

Democrats can try all they want, but Don Young will leave Congress in a body bag.

I'm glad to see that we were vindicated! There were some on here who were genuinely convinced that Young could lose.

[Calthrina950]

AP calls AK-AL for Don Young (R), AK-SEN for Dan Sullivan (R).

Results:
Trump +17.8
Sullivan +20.0
Young +16.3

Has Alaska completely finished counting its ballots? If so, these are disastrous results for the Democrats, who actually thought they could upset Sullivan and Young. It's a significant improvement for Young in particular, since he "only" beat Alyse Galvin by 6% in 2018. I'm assuming Young carried most of bush Alaska again, like he has done throughout his career.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/repdonyoung/status/1326996302765445120

The Dean of the House, right after winning reelection, contracting the virus...is something. At the rate cases are exploding in this country, everyone is going to get the virus at this point.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027

L M A O

Hilarious that Gardner is still being as craven and weak-willed as he was before he lost reelection. He simply just doesn't care anymore.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027
L M A O

Hilarious that Gardner is still being as craven and weak-willed as he was before he lost reelection. He simply just doesn't care anymore.

There was speculation that Republicans were already hoping to recruit him for 2022 before his defeat this year. If he's up for that, his incentive to posture isn't much weaker than it was previously.

I'm aware of this, but Gardner's prospects for future statewide office in Colorado are done after this year. He will not defeat Bennet or Polis under virtually any circumstances.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1329172541001379846

The virus is spreading like wildfire through the halls of Congress. At this point, it would be a miracle if Pelosi, McConnell, and the other party leaders didn't get it.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1329197458174349313?s=19

Obviously, this isn't anywhere near what Cox needs, correct?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1329172541001379846

The virus is spreading like wildfire through the halls of Congress. At this point, it would be a miracle if Pelosi, McConnell, and the other party leaders didn't get it.

I'm not sure I would call McConnell not getting covid a miracle if you catch my drift

I wouldn't wish illness on McConnell, even though I absolutely despise him.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1329172541001379846

You can add Doug Lamborn, my Representative, to this list as well, so that makes it eight.

[Calthrina950]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

And we've spent the last 2/4 years hearing about how incumbency advantage, ticket-splitting, and candidate quality no longer matter.

Biden outperformed every single House Democrat on this list, including incumbents Fletcher and Allred. Ticket-splitting, such as it was this year, benefited downballot Republicans, not Democrats, in the vast majority of cases.