CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[wbrocks67]

NJ is likely close to finish counting soon (they're at about 4M statewide which is the baseline for ultimate turnout in the end), so I don't really see how NJ-07 flips... Malinowksi still up by over 12K votes.

Also LMAO at someone saying Josh Harder will "probably win".... he's currently up by 13%.....

[VAR]

Sasse underperformed Trump by a lot in rural Nebraska while winning Douglas County by 21 points.

[Stuart98]

Spreadsheet estimating how the oustanding vote in each precinct in UT-04 will go.
Owens looks to be very, very narrowly favored and it could well be a recount.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1326515697892159494?s=19

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1326515697892159494?s=19

Looks like I can sleep now.

[Torie]

I have the partisan breakdowns of the absentee ballots returned in NY by county as of 2 or 3 days ago (good enough), and based on the Cortland dump, if replicated elsewhere,  Brindisi closed the margin by around 22,000 votes, and is behind by 28,000. There are about 50,000 to 55,000 of those ballots in NY-22. So still about an 85% chance of going Pub maybe.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

This looks like a CONCESSION by Rep. Harley Rouda!

Well, congratulations to Michelle Park Steel then as the 1st Korean American elected to Congress

Already filed to run against Steel in 2022. lol.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326226014922420224?s=19

Good, enjoy your two year rental while you can

You expect 2022 to be a blue wave or what ?

Just you wait for OC redistricting.

(puts on my naive innocent hat for purposes of drawing out an answer)

But California has an Independent Redistricting Commission as a well-intentioned reform. Are you telling me this Independent Redistricting Commission will suddenly draw districts in Orange County in a way to screw over a particular party in a partisan-purposed manner?

It may depend on how well the "citizen" testimony can be crafted to influence the commissioners. In 2011, the commissioners were advised to rely on citizen testimony because there was not objective evidence as to where "communities of interest were".

I'm sure that there are more Democratic areas that can moved into a district or more Republican areas moved out.

"Blagovians have moved into Sierra Bandana so now the community is split. They have a hard time getting the interest of their representative. If the community were made whole in a single district they would be better represented." (we are either trying to move Blagovians out of the district if they were refugees from a tyrannical Communist regime and more likely to vote R, or move them into the district if they are more likely to vote D).

On the other hand San Diego doesn't need much population adjustment, at most some redistribution. Orange County is somewhat short, so it would have to shift districts north a bit. It would not be illogical to push more of CA-47 out of the county and add that to CA-48. The other choice would be push more of CA-39 out of the county. I think the mountains are too much of a barrier to cross into Riverside County.

The big change will be in Los Angeles County where close to a district will be lost. Riverside has increased in vote share so you should eastward shifting of districts in the Pomona-Ontario area. They may try to knock out one of Waters or Bass. There will also need to be some northward shift through the Central Valley.

[2016]

BREAKING NEWS
CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX NEWS PROJECT that Incumbent Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan will be reelected for a 2nd Term giving Senate Republicans their 50th Vote in the Chamber.

The only way Democrats can now gain control is by winning the two Georgia Runoff Elections in January.

[Torie]

So what do you guys think will be the final makes up come January?

Does 224 D, 211 R sound about right?

Edit: Although that might be a smidge optimistic on my part.

222 D,  211 R, 1 lean/likely R (that 40 vote margin has been certified, so to change they need to find outright errors (IA-02)), 1 tossup (CA-25). Odds are maybe 60% that the final will be 223 D-212 R, and 40% it will be 222 D - 213 R.  The Dem's net loss is 10 - 11 seats. The Dems lost most of the close ones, and there were a lot of close ones. 

[lfromnj]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article107085482.html

To show you how bad the Cuban snapback was for D's

The Congressman elect for FL 26 in 2016 voted for Clinton.

[lfromnj]

Theres a small chance the house could end up at 213 -222
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1326553576194285572
PA would probably be 7-12 without redistricting +2 R
FL could be 9 D 18 R +2 R
NC would still be 10-3 +2 R
VA would prob be 6D 5 R. +1 R

[VAR]

AP calls AK-AL for Don Young (R), AK-SEN for Dan Sullivan (R).

Results:
Trump +17.8
Sullivan +20.0
Young +16.3

[Roll Roons]

AP calls AK-AL for Don Young (R).

Democrats can try all they want, but Don Young will leave Congress in a body bag.

[Calthrina950]

AP calls AK-AL for Don Young (R).

Democrats can try all they want, but Don Young will leave Congress in a body bag.

I'm glad to see that we were vindicated! There were some on here who were genuinely convinced that Young could lose.

[2016]

I think CNN has the most accurate House Map right now so I'll go with them from now on until everything is decided.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house

DEMOCRATS 218
REPUBLICANS 203
14 Races Uncalled

For the purpose of this Exercise I'll give CA-25 (Garcia vs Smith; Too many LA County Ballots left),
IL-14 (Underwood vs Oberweis), NY-3 (Suozzi vs Santos), NY-18 (Maloney vs Farley); NY-19 (Delgado vs Van de Water) to the Democrats bringing them to 223.

I'll also give CA-39 (Cisneros vs Kim), CA-21 (Cox vs Valadao; Since Kings won't restart counting until Nov. 21 and is Valadao's stronghold Cox would need a lead heading into that count), IA-2 (Miller-Meeks vs Hart), LA-5 (Runoff between two Republicans), NY-24 (Katko vs Balter) and UT-4 (McAdams vs Owens) to the Republicans bringing them to 209.

Three Races I see as totally Jump Balls: NY-2 (Open; Garbarino vs Gordon); NY-11 (Rose vs Malliotakis) and NY-22 (Brindisi vs Tenney).

Best Case Scenario: Republicans win all 3 bringing them to 212-223 in the House.
Worst Case Scenatio: Republicans lose all 3 bringing them to 209-226 in the House.

Republicans would need to flip only 9 Seats to win House Control back in 2022 in a worst-case scenario.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think CNN has the most accurate House Map right now so I'll go with them from now on until everything is decided.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house

DEMOCRATS 218
REPUBLICANS 203
14 Races Uncalled

For the purpose of this Exercise I'll give CA-25 (Garcia vs Smith; Too many LA County Ballots left),
IL-14 (Underwood vs Oberweis), NY-3 (Suozzi vs Santos), NY-18 (Maloney vs Farley); NY-19 (Delgado vs Van de Water) to the Democrats bringing them to 223.

I'll also give CA-39 (Cisneros vs Kim), CA-21 (Cox vs Valadao; Since Kings won't restart counting until Nov. 21 and is Valadao's stronghold Cox would need a lead heading into that count), IA-2 (Miller-Meeks vs Hart), LA-5 (Runoff between two Republicans), NY-24 (Katko vs Balter) and UT-4 (McAdams vs Owens) to the Republicans bringing them to 209.

Three Races I see as totally Jump Balls: NY-2 (Open; Garbarino vs Gordon); NY-11 (Rose vs Malliotakis) and NY-22 (Brindisi vs Tenney).

Best Case Scenario: Republicans win all 3 bringing them to 212-223 in the House.
Worst Case Scenatio: Republicans lose all 3 bringing them to 209-226 in the House.

Republicans would need to flip only 9 Seats to win House Control back in 2022 in a worst-case scenario.

Those “jump balls” should all go GOP.

[Torie]

I think CNN has the most accurate House Map right now so I'll go with them from now on until everything is decided.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house

DEMOCRATS 218
REPUBLICANS 203
14 Races Uncalled

For the purpose of this Exercise I'll give CA-25 (Garcia vs Smith; Too many LA County Ballots left),
IL-14 (Underwood vs Oberweis), NY-3 (Suozzi vs Santos), NY-18 (Maloney vs Farley); NY-19 (Delgado vs Van de Water) to the Democrats bringing them to 223.

I'll also give CA-39 (Cisneros vs Kim), CA-21 (Cox vs Valadao; Since Kings won't restart counting until Nov. 21 and is Valadao's stronghold Cox would need a lead heading into that count), IA-2 (Miller-Meeks vs Hart), LA-5 (Runoff between two Republicans), NY-24 (Katko vs Balter) and UT-4 (McAdams vs Owens) to the Republicans bringing them to 209.

Three Races I see as totally Jump Balls: NY-2 (Open; Garbarino vs Gordon); NY-11 (Rose vs Malliotakis) and NY-22 (Brindisi vs Tenney).

Best Case Scenario: Republicans win all 3 bringing them to 212-223 in the House.
Worst Case Scenatio: Republicans lose all 3 bringing them to 209-226 in the House.

Republicans would need to flip only 9 Seats to win House Control back in 2022 in a worst-case scenario.

Those “jump balls” should all go GOP.

Speaking of NY, you don't think the Dem candidate will win about 50% of the absentee ballots of registered Pubs and 100% of everything else? The total absentees might by as much as about 10% higher than the totals here, but that is about the max increase.

[VAR]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

What mistakes?

[KaiserDave]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

What mistakes?

Perhaps running too much on the attack, and not defining your own candidate as anything beyond Generic D/R.

[Frenchrepublican]

So what do you guys think will be the final makes up come January?

Does 224 D, 211 R sound about right?

Edit: Although that might be a smidge optimistic on my part.

Very unsure about CA-21 / CA-25 / UT-4 / IA-2

[gerritcole]

So what do you guys think will be the final makes up come January?

Does 224 D, 211 R sound about right?

Edit: Although that might be a smidge optimistic on my part.

Very unsure about CA-21 / CA-25 / UT-4

MN looks so much more red w/o Peterson

[Frenchrepublican]

So what do you guys think will be the final makes up come January?

Does 224 D, 211 R sound about right?

Edit: Although that might be a smidge optimistic on my part.

Very unsure about CA-21 / CA-25 / UT-4

MN looks so much more red w/o Peterson

That's the thing when your party is mostly a urban / suburban party.

[VAR]

Minnesota looks beautiful, ^ also, why do you think Hart will win?

[Calthrina950]

AP calls AK-AL for Don Young (R), AK-SEN for Dan Sullivan (R).

Results:
Trump +17.8
Sullivan +20.0
Young +16.3

Has Alaska completely finished counting its ballots? If so, these are disastrous results for the Democrats, who actually thought they could upset Sullivan and Young. It's a significant improvement for Young in particular, since he "only" beat Alyse Galvin by 6% in 2018. I'm assuming Young carried most of bush Alaska again, like he has done throughout his career.

[Frenchrepublican]

AP calls AK-AL for Don Young (R), AK-SEN for Dan Sullivan (R).

Results:
Trump +17.8
Sullivan +20.0
Young +16.3

Has Alaska completely finished counting its ballots? If so, these are disastrous results for the Democrats, who actually thought they could upset Sullivan and Young. It's a significant improvement for Young in particular, since he "only" beat Alyse Galvin by 6% in 2018. I'm assuming Young carried most of bush Alaska again, like he has done throughout his career.

Nah, there are still around 1/4 of the ballots which remain to be counted. In the end Biden will probably lose by around 9 points and Gross by around 11 points.