Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[wbrocks67]

13 days to election VBM:
2020: 1.18M; 72.1% D, 19.0% R — D+53.1
2022: 634k; 73.0% D, 19.2% R — D+53.8
2023: 339k; 73.4% D, 20.1% R — D+53.3

[Nyvin]

I feel better about this race than any other in November I think.

[Duke of York]

I feel better about this race than any other in November I think.

The Philadelphia mayor and Allegheny County Executive election will help.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Franklin & Marshall poll (no horse race):

Daniel McCaffery (left): 16% favorable, 9% unfavorable
Carolyn Carluccio (right): 12% favorable, 17% unfavorable

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/f-m-college-poll-october-2023-6539b15636f9d.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Franklin & Marshall poll (no horse race):

Daniel McCaffery (left): 16% favorable, 9% unfavorable
Carolyn Carluccio (right): 12% favorable, 17% unfavorable

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/f-m-college-poll-october-2023-6539b15636f9d.pdf

Pretty much the only thing I can gleam here is that the anti-Carluccio ads are working.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 989,338
Dem: 702,091 (71.0%)
Rep: 204,295 (20.6%)

Total ballots returned: 378,389
Dem: 277,896 (73.4%)
Rep: 75,601 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 39.5%
Rep return rate: 37.0%

Dems continue to outperform their requests (D+50.4) with returns (D+53.4) and have now surpassed a 200K lead on Reps.  Return rate also continues to go up.

[wbrocks67]

Carluccio is just .... so bad at this. She puts out this ad (which is terrible for many reasons), but most egregious it that her campaign has nearly entirely been funded by outside interests!

https://twitter.com/JudgeCarluccio/status/1717539395165655378

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Did she take a benadryl right before the camera started rolling?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Carluccio is the weakest statewide judicial candidate Republicans have nominated in PA since Anne Covey.

Lean McCaffery

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I don't fault Carluccio for not being a political superstar given that this is a judicial race after all, but she really is just extremely cringe, especially given McCaffery is much more telegenic as well - also this ad is basically perfect, up until the Planned Parenthood mention at the end, you may believe he may even be a Republican lol (with the "working class" caricature)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPbE5xS4v2g

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 998,453
Dem: 707,712 (70.9%)
Rep: 206,668 (20.7%)
= D+50.2

Total ballots returned: 426,229
Dem: 312,510 (73.3%)
Rep: 85,498 (20.1%)
= D+53.2

Dem return rate: 44.2%
Rep return rate: 41.4%

Dem lead: +227,012 (was +202,295 yesterday)
Dem return rate lead: +2.8% (was +2.5% yesterday)

This is pretty much exactly how 2022 was turning out; Dems got to a 3/4% lead in return rate higher than Rs around this time.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro has cut an ad for Innamorato in Allegheny, I wonder if this is a one-off, or there is more coming for McCaffery, Parker, etc.

https://twitter.com/Innamo/status/1717922860394512557

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/TheMessenger/status/1717927908390351220

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 1,006,060
Dem: 712,234 (70.8%)
Rep: 208,920 (20.8%)

Total ballots returned: 470,858
Dem: 345,560 (73.4%)
Rep: 94,141 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 48.5%
Rep return rate: 45.1%

Dem lead: +251,419 (was +227,012 on Friday)
Dem return rate lead: +3.4% (was +2.8% on Friday)

8 days out from election:
2020: 1.83M — 69.2% D, 21.0% R; D+48.2
2022: 851k — 71.8% D, 20.0% R; D+51.8
2023: 471k — 73.4% D, 20.0% R; D+53.4

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 1,016,308
Dem: 717,934 (70.6%)
Rep: 212,341 (20.9%)

Total ballots returned: 518,687
Dem: 379,865 (73.2%)
Rep: 104,205 (20.1%)

Dem return rate: 52.9%
Rep return rate: 49.1%

Dem lead: +275,660 (was +251,419 yesterday)
Dem return rate lead: 3.8% (was +3.4% yesterday)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The trends in Allegheny, Centre, Montgomery, Dauphin, and Lancaster alone disprove the notion that voter registration numbers mean anything meaningful when it comes to election results.

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1718626612906799317?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, especially Allegheny. I'm wondering if there was some type of voter roll adjustments since 2022 as well; it's hard to square a lot of this, but especially Allegheny gaining like 16K republicans when that county is zooming left.

[kwabbit]

Yeah, especially Allegheny. I'm wondering if there was some type of voter roll adjustments since 2022 as well; it's hard to square a lot of this, but especially Allegheny gaining like 16K republicans when that county is zooming left.

Allegheny has a very weird voting history as one of the few educated areas in Appalachia. Not too many counties that were as strong for McCain as Bush also swung left from 2012 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2020. I'm guessing there's still more ancestral Dems to be shed by Democrats than former Republicans to be gained, but nowadays people also choose to be unaffiliated more. That's independent of the voting trends, where Democrats are definitely outpacing registration changes in the educated north hills.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 1,026,227
Dem: 723,746 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,286 (21.0%)

Total ballots returned: 570,553
Dem: 417,829 (73.2%)
Rep: 114,149 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 57.7%
Rep return rate: 53.0%

Dem lead: +303,680 (was +275,660 yesterday)
Dem return rate lead: +4.7% (was +3.8% yesterday)

[Duke of York]

Total ballots requested: 1,026,227
Dem: 723,746 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,286 (21.0%)

Total ballots returned: 570,553
Dem: 417,829 (73.2%)
Rep: 114,149 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 57.7%
Rep return rate: 53.0%

Dem lead: +303,680 (was +275,660 yesterday)
Dem return rate lead: +4.7% (was +3.8% yesterday)

excellent news. How is Philadelphia looking?

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 1,026,227
Dem: 723,746 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,286 (21.0%)

Total ballots returned: 570,553
Dem: 417,829 (73.2%)
Rep: 114,149 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 57.7%
Rep return rate: 53.0%

Dem lead: +303,680 (was +275,660 yesterday)
Dem return rate lead: +4.7% (was +3.8% yesterday)

excellent news. How is Philadelphia looking?

Better! They ended with nearly 110K VBM requests, which is up from 103K in 2021. Given McLaughlin only lost by 25K votes in 2021, every extra thousand counts.

GOP had a slight better return rate, but now it's closer. Dems at 51.9% return rate, GOP at 52.6%. The overall return rate was 72% in 2021, so I think we can likely pass that this year. May be able to get it closer to where it was last year (80%)

[wbrocks67]

Final VBM:
2020: 2.64M; 64.8% D, 23.6% R — D+41.2
2021: 753K; 71.4% D, 21.3% R — D+50.1
2022: 1.21M; 69.1% D, 21.1% R — D+48.0
2023: 571K; 73.2% D, 20.0% R — D+53.2 [so far]

VBM looking better (right now) for Ds than any recent year, but will see how it ends up next Tuesday. Question mark is E-day turnout; you can see that in 2021, Ds actually had a better VBM number, but election day turnout was more R. In 2022 however, election day was not as R, so they still were able to win despite having a lower lead in VBM than 2021.

I imagine last years election day turnout was less R than 2021 given the pandemic subsiding, so if this years election day turnout in terms of D-R % is similar to last year, and they have the best VBM number in the last 4 years, then things would look really good for Ds.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 1,026,489
Dem: 723,892 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,368 (21.0%)
= D+49.5

Total ballots returned: 612,793
Dem: 447,169 (73.0%)
Rep: 123,682 (20.2%)
= D+52.8

Dem return rate: 61.8%
Rep return rate: 57.4%

Dem lead: +323,487 (was +303,680 yesterday)
Dem return rate lead: +4.4% (was +4.7% yesterday)

There was a few straggler requests, but that should be the basically final number now. Up about 75K from 2021.

[wbrocks67]

13 days to election VBM:
2020: 1.18M; 72.1% D, 19.0% R — D+53.1
2022: 634k; 73.0% D, 19.2% R — D+53.8
2023: 339k; 73.4% D, 20.1% R — D+53.3

5 days out from election:
2022: 1.02M; 70.4% D, 20.7% R — D+49.7
2023: 613k; 73.0% D, 20.2% R — D+52.8

What's interesting here is that by this time in 2022, there was a bit of an "R mail surge", with the Dem lead going from +53.8 to +49.7 in this week span. Not really seeing that much of that this year.

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, Carluccio is trying the 11th hour "I'm really a reasonable moderate and going to bring everyone together" stunt that Oz tried last year

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1719910187442835673