Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[wbrocks67]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?

The chamber is so close, it's definitely possible.

[Duke of York]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?

The chamber is so close, it's definitely possible.

it could flip February 13th with the special election.

[wbrocks67]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?

The chamber is so close, it's definitely possible.

it could flip February 13th with the special election.

It could, but that one seems unlikely. PA Dems have been on a hot streak with specials and the seat is even bluer downballot than Prez suggests (reg D+18)

[wbrocks67]

Looks like McCaffery had considerable crossover support:

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1737940659426984435

[MT Treasurer]

"But all of the crosstabs with sample sizes of 40 people are saying..."

- A certain trio consisting of blue, yellow, and green avs we all know and love.

Using an off-off-year judicial election with turnout ~50% of what it was in Nov. 2020 as rock-solid evidence to disprove Joe Biden's weaknesses with low-propensity non-white voters is not really the own you and most "green" avatars think it is.

[Duke of York]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?

The chamber is so close, it's definitely possible.

it could flip February 13th with the special election.

It could, but that one seems unlikely. PA Dems have been on a hot streak with specials and the seat is even bluer downballot than Prez suggests (reg D+18)

Plus they have been using very effective messaging in special election emphasizing control of the house is being decided. The used that in the Pittsburgh area specials early in the year and it worked.

[wbrocks67]

"But all of the crosstabs with sample sizes of 40 people are saying..."

- A certain trio consisting of blue, yellow, and green avs we all know and love.

Using an off-off-year judicial election with turnout ~50% of what it was in Nov. 2020 as rock-solid evidence to disprove Joe Biden's weaknesses with low-propensity non-white voters is not really the own you and most "green" avatars think it is.

I mean, it certainly says something when the margins with nonwhite voters in PA are similar whether it's 70% turnout or 40% turnout. Means the voters are pretty set, given a small margin here or there. That's the point. No matter what the turnout is, specifically in PA, nonwhite voters don't really change a whole ton in their voting preference.

[wbrocks67]

Bizarro rightfully busts out the gate in tying Jan 6 to Garrity:

https://twitter.com/pennslinger/status/1742540957873012958

[wbrocks67]

This is interesting - you don't really normally hear anything about DeFoor but there certainly can now be an election denier angle.

https://twitter.com/LauraShadlePA/status/1744073652809637914?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?

Not with Casey on the ballot

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1745865537563881785

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1745865537563881785

Bad news for 2024 Democrats if they need such a favorable electorate to win.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1745865537563881785

Bad news for 2024 Democrats if they need such a favorable electorate to win.

Do you ever not doom? It's not bad news at all.

[Roll Roons]

How is this great news for Dems? My understanding of the tweet is that McCaffery won by the margin he did because turnout was so D-favorable, but it will presumably be more even in the presidential election.

[SnowLabrador]

How is this great news for Dems? My understanding of the tweet is that McCaffery won by the margin he did because turnout was so D-favorable, but it will presumably be more even in the presidential election.

This is exactly what I mean.

[Epaminondas]

My understanding of the tweet is that McCaffery won by the margin he did because turnout was so D-favorable, but it will presumably be more even in the presidential election.

This endless parroting in certain circles that PA is a 50-50 state seems disconnected from reality.
Lots of rural Dems may be voting Trump, but not GOP downballot.
How many statewide elections have the GOP won in the past 12 years? 5 of 30, all by 1-2%?

[wbrocks67]

I'll have to wait for Bonier's further data, now I'm unclear if he means it was a +9 advantage in turnout % or purely the makeup of the electorate.

For reference, in 2022, it was:

Electorate:
D 45.5%
R 43.8%
I 10.7%

Turnout:
R 67.8% (2.37m)
D 60.8% (2.46m)
I 43.5% (578k)

[Spectator]

How are the statewide row offices shaping up? Seems like David Sunday is heavily favored to be the R nominee for AG, but Dems don’t seem to have a clear frontrunner as far as I can tell. My intuition is that Jared Solomon has the strongest profile for a general election.

Ryan Bizzarro and Malcolm Kenyatta seem like the D favorites for Treasurer and Auditor. I don’t think Kenyatta would be the smartest choice for that position, and Tim DeFoor probably wins if he faces him.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

My gut instinct, atm, is that Bizarro wins but Kenyatta loses. Not sure about AG, will have to see who the Dem nominee is.

[wbrocks67]

My gut instinct, atm, is that Bizarro wins but Kenyatta loses. Not sure about AG, will have to see who the Dem nominee is.

If I had to pick between the two, I'd say Bizarro, but mostly because Garrity is a much weaker opponent than DeFoor is. DeFoor has some skeletons in his closet, but as of right now, he's generic R to voters. We'll see if that changes. Bizzaro has done a much better job at already trying to frame Garrity as extreme, while Kenyatta hasn't even touched DeFoor yet.

[The Mikado]

So does Bizarro always say the opposite of what he means and refer to himself in the third person?

Bizarro am not running for Treasurer!

[VPH]

Kenyatta is under fire for calling Pinsley racist for some reason. I still think he’s favored in the primary, but I may well vote for DeFoor again if he’s the nominee. Will need to see both candidates’ proposals.

On the AG side, I’m voting Solomon but think Stollsteimer is the strongest candidate in the general. His record is rather incredible—dude put together the framework to reduce homicides by 70% in Chester, PA. DePasquale likely has a geographic advantage in the primary with multiple Philly area candidates in the race. Bradford-Grey and Khan both seem to garner more progressive backing.

[Spectator]

Kenyatta is under fire for calling Pinsley racist for some reason. I still think he’s favored in the primary, but I may well vote for DeFoor again if he’s the nominee. Will need to see both candidates’ proposals.

On the AG side, I’m voting Solomon but think Stollsteimer is the strongest candidate in the general. His record is rather incredible—dude put together the framework to reduce homicides by 70% in Chester, PA. DePasquale likely has a geographic advantage in the primary with multiple Philly area candidates in the race. Bradford-Grey and Khan both seem to garner more progressive backing.

Curious to see what Kenyatta says when Pennsylvanians re-elect the black Tim DeFoor in November.

[Lambsbread]

Kenyatta is under fire for calling Pinsley racist for some reason.

Oh, weird. Because there does seem to be a reason but you conspicuously didn’t include it:

Two years ago, Pinsley found himself in hot water for racially tinged remarks he made during a Legislative Redistricting Commission meeting.

“Nor should you allow a map that allows one district that packs Allentown and Bethlehem into one super district. I hope Senator Costa will hold the line on that. We don’t need a ghetto,” said Pinsley, according to WFMZ-TV.

Anyway, the state party is already behind Kenyatta and Pinsley is an also-ran who will easily be dispatched in the primary. But hey, you know, blue no matter who, right?

I may well vote for DeFoor again

Oh. Weird.

[wbrocks67]

Kenyatta is under fire for calling Pinsley racist for some reason. I still think he’s favored in the primary, but I may well vote for DeFoor again if he’s the nominee. Will need to see both candidates’ proposals.

On the AG side, I’m voting Solomon but think Stollsteimer is the strongest candidate in the general. His record is rather incredible—dude put together the framework to reduce homicides by 70% in Chester, PA. DePasquale likely has a geographic advantage in the primary with multiple Philly area candidates in the race. Bradford-Grey and Khan both seem to garner more progressive backing.

Curious to see what Kenyatta says when Pennsylvanians re-elect the black Tim DeFoor in November.

Meh, DeFoor is literally the most unknown person to the electorate. That could either help or harm him; too early to say at this point.