Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Crumpets]

Just a tweet from some Twitter rando, but [chef's kiss]

https://twitter.com/DirkRecker7676/status/1327109121389322241

[Crumpets]

Anecdotal, but I know a first-time voter from Georgia who is pretty much a centrist having voted for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. He says doesn't want a Democratic trifecta so he will probably be voting for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff.

I still try to convince him to to reconsider his support for Loeffler at least with the argument that this would still avoid a Dem trifecta but ensure that Attila's Barbie Girl gets kicked out of Congress. Hope he changes his mind..

Wondering how many Georgians think the way he does.

Probably relatively high. A lot of the suburbanites who delivered the state to Biden are likely to stay home or vote for at least Perdue since "OrAnGE mAN iS GoNE, sO rEpUBliCAns ArE OKay NoW." President Trump had a big silver lining for Democrats because he motivated his opponents to turn out at levels that they didn't before. Unless Trump really digs his heels in insisting that he won the election and starts completely sabotaging everything he can for the next two months (a real possibility), Perdue and Loeffler will win by surprisingly large margins in the runoff.

Although, if they were split-ticket Biden-Republican downballot voters, staying home might still be a net positive for the Democrats, even if it's not as good as getting them to switch to voting for Warnock and Ossoff.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1338189444311101441

[Crumpets]

What's the best way to ensure your base turns out to vote in Georgia by January 5th?

Calling for them to be in DC the next day probably isn't it.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1340185773220515840

[Crumpets]

Don't know why everyone is getting so worked up over elections where we already know the result.

https://twitter.com/CeesBoogaart/status/1330418683865407496

[Crumpets]

56%-41% think November was fair  - CNN Exit poll

95% of Dems thought it was fair
76% of Republicans think it wasn't.

Georgia pubs can probably see the writing on the wall both that the state is trending D and that fighting the results of the election is not a winning issue to gain additional voters.

[Crumpets]

Just taking a look at those [MSM org] numbers, I have to say the numbers are looking really [negative-sounding adjective] for [political party]. The changes in turnout among [demographic group] since the [year] election make it basically impossible for [other political party] to lose unless [first political party] can match that with gains among [other demographic group]. Anecdotally, my friends in [silly southern-sounding name] in [prominent 19th century slavery/Confederacy supporter] County said that turnout seemed pretty heavy at their precinct and most of their neighbors support [candidate]. That being said, [prominent political figure]'s recent tweet saying that [offensive statement] might have made them change their minds at the last minute.

[Crumpets]

Sure, ignore turnout in Dem counties and only mention R counties. Sure!

https://twitter.com/brianros1/status/1346604250584018944

Nothing can stop what is Cumming.

You know, because Forsyth County is trending sharply Democrat and we can't rely on outdated ideas of how certain areas will vote and how turnout in those areas will shape the outcome of the election. Get your mind out of the gutter Atlas!

[Crumpets]

Sure, ignore turnout in Dem counties and only mention R counties. Sure!

https://twitter.com/brianros1/status/1346604250584018944

Nothing can stop what is Cumming.

You know, because Forsyth County is trending sharply Democrat and we can't rely on outdated ideas of how certain areas will vote and how turnout in those areas will shape the outcome of the election. Get your mind out of the gutter Atlas!

I live in Cumming (actually in the non-urban part of the county, but I have a Cumming address).  Believe me, we've heard all the jokes.

I went on a volunteer trip with two very cool people from Forsyth County back in 2013. That's been a FF area in my book ever since.

[Crumpets]

Warnock and Ossoff both leading by 40+ points right now on the NYT site. Clearly rigged!

[Crumpets]

So this Public Service Commission District 4 election that's also happening tonight. Who is expected to win that? Currently the Dem is up 66%-34% and I have no idea what that means.

[Crumpets]

Ossoff has gone from +<0.1% projected margin and 50% chance of winning to 0.1% projected margin and 51% chance of winning. Discuss with maps.

[Crumpets]

Give it to me straight—how’s it looking so far

Nobody really knows

It probably won't be a surprise landslide in either direction. That's about where we're at.

[Crumpets]

I don't remember how fast Georgia reported on election night, but I've got to give them some credit that we're actually getting some real results in this early and they didn't just do a mail-in or election day ballot dump to make it look like they're counting fast and then leave us hanging.

[Crumpets]

[Crumpets]

We have reached "Tilt Ossoff" on THE NEEDLE!

[Crumpets]

Man, Dave is on his game tonight:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?year=2020&fips=13&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?year=2020&fips=13&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3

[Crumpets]

One problem if the polls are spot-on for these elections will be that all the pollsters will say "okay, it was just a Trump thing" and not change anything else about their methodology.

[Crumpets]

It has officially gotten to the point that I'm thinking "Warnock's win probability has been at 60% for a while. Oh no! Maybe this means his probability is flattening out and is about to start going back down!"

Just the fact that we're at that point though is a pretty good sign overall.

[Crumpets]

That Fulton dump makes me feel much better, even though the needle didn't move a bit. I thought we were going to have to hold back a red shift for another 60% of the vote. This is a nice buffer.

[Crumpets]

Warnock up to 63% win probability and Ossoff up to 58% win probability. Best for both so far tonight!

[Crumpets]

Might just be whatever method the NYT uses for uploading data, but it seems like votes for the Ossoff-Perdue race get reported before Loeffler-Warnock race. The numbers have been leapfrogging each other. Either that or more people voted in the former than the latter, but that would be strange.

[Crumpets]

Boy would I pay to see Mitch McConnell’s face right now

I can say pretty confidently it looks something like:

[Crumpets]

This thread right now:

https://twitter.com/schizoidvisions/status/1345353600046919681

[Crumpets]

From Stephanie Saul @ NYT: Kelly Loeffler is only the second woman to serve as a senator from Georgia. The other, Rebecca Latimer Felton, served for one day in 1922.