MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[OneJ]

I swear to God, if we get a Dixiecrat renaissance out of nowhere...

You can probably thank Trump.

[OneJ]

Presumably McDaniel moves into this race and Wicker walks.

I think so too.

Same.

[OneJ]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

There would be a runoff right?

If no one gets over 50%, yes.

[OneJ]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

There would be a runoff right?

If no one gets over 50%, yes.

However, I just realized that the fact that this is a nonpartisan special election changes the dynamic drastically.  That means if the Dems run a semi-decent candidate they’re almost guaranteed a runoff spot due to the high floor provided by Black voters.  The top Republican after him would most likely get the other spot, with almost no possibility for an R vs R runoff.

In this case a Presley vs McDaniel general is almost a certainty should both of these candidates run.  In this case, Bryant’s best move might be to appoint someone like Harper in an attempt to hold the seat (assuming that Bryant is completely opposed to the idea of a Senator McDaniel, which I’m not certain of).

I think you just made very good points. Also, I guess it should be taken into account that runoffs more often than not produce lower turnout than previous elections besides the Republican primary of 2014. That should, I assume, help whoever the Democratic candidate would be, which would likely be Presley in this case.

As of now, I see Bryant going the safe route and appointing someone like Harper as you've mentioned, but it does make me wonder what Bryant thinks of McDaniel.

[OneJ]

McConnell's trying to get Bryant to appoint himself.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mcconnell-urges-mississippi-governor-to-consider-cochran-senate-seat/2018/02/01/7f455d68-079d-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html?sw_bypass=true&utm_term=.fde79a0ed3d2

That seems pretty...um...desperate.

[OneJ]

Meanwhile, yet unsurprisingly...

Trump backs Wicker for Senate

[OneJ]

Senator Wicker following the Luther Strange strategy.

Also, can we change the name of this thread?  Something like "MS 2018 Megathread" would be more appropriate seeing as we have this race, the MS-03 GOP primary and a potential Cochran retirement to all consider.

I agree.

[OneJ]

Is McDaniels flipping over?

He hasn't confirmed yet, but I bet he's considering.

[OneJ]

If Pressley doesn't run, I think Espy would be solid against McDaniel, he's giving me Doug Jones vibes.

*clapping* Doug Jones didn't win, Roy Moore lost

Trump didn't win, Clinton lost.

[OneJ]

Presley liked this tweet
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/970863426753978368
he knows of his powers

Amazing how inelastic DeSoto is.

Anyways, both Presley and Hood performed very well in Northeastern Mississippi which is a very rural region. Tishomingo, for example, voted 86-12 Trump. In 2000 the same county only voted 59-39 Bush and the swing & trend towards Republicans accelerated since. Those are some really impressive results and shows that (the right) Democrats can be competitive in a state that is very polarized in multiple ways.

[OneJ]

Saw a Wicker ad a few minutes ago. It was anti-McDaniel and claimed that McDaniel said that Trump was not a "conservative" and called Trump's supporters "delusional" and "disturbing."

[OneJ]

Survey conducted by Wicker's campaign tested GOP voters in DeSoto County. Wicker has a 44-29 lead over McDaniel despite McDaniel winning over 70% of the vote in the same county against Cochran in the runoff. Also includes favorability and Trump approval and stuff like that.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/HindsPolling/status/973710497450201088

Btw, it's a google survey. Ugh...

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/HindsPolling/status/973710497450201088

Btw, it's a google survey. Ugh...

For the lazy, here's some interesting stuff (not the whole poll though):

Trump Job Approval:
46% Approve
52% Disapprove

Who would you vote for if these were the candidates?:
Presley: 42%
McDaniel: 39%

Who would you vote for if these were the candidates?:
Hood: 41%
McDaniel: 41%

Who do you plan to vote for in the Senate General Election for the regular election?
Wicker: 53%
Baria: 42%

Would you rather Democrats or Republicans to control congress this year?
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 44%

What party do you plan to vote for in the House of Representatives this year?
Democrats: 48%
Republicans: 49%

60%-36% voted for Trump in 2016, but in 2012 they claim to have voted for Romney 51%-47%

What race do you identify with?
Black: 36%
White: 61%

[OneJ]

A college professor of mine said back in 2007 that Espy is the only African-American who could have plausibly won a statewide election in Mississippi, but that he'd probably missed his window by 2007. 11 years later, does the electorate even remember who he is?

There were also rumors about 10 years ago that he might switch parties. He endorsed Barbour for reelection in 2007 and apparently really wanted to be appointed to Trent Lott's seat, but I haven't heard anyone referring to him as anything other than a Democrat for this race.

Well if it counts, my mother does and I'll say it's very likely she'll vote for Espy too. But other than some older and middle-aged black voters I doubt that he's remembered by many from back in the day.

[OneJ]

Has the filing deadline passed? when will it be?

Yep. It was on March 1st.

[OneJ]

Still Likely R (and that's only because Espy is the most credible candidate Democrats have had since Ronnie Musgrove).

The race against Wicker meanwhile, is now Safe R...unless Hood or Baria jumps in...and even then it would be a very strong Likely R (for Baria) or Lean R (for Hood).

The deadline for Wicker's seat has already passed and Baria has already declared running against Wicker. It's pretty much all about the special now.

Phil Bryant is going to appoint a former democrat?

Seems like an easy person to attack for McDaniels

In addition to this, she switched pretty late. Most former Democrats switched during the '90s and '00s.

[OneJ]

I’m astonished at the fact that Bryant could’ve appointed Lynn Fitch if McConnell really wanted a woman that bad. At least Bryant didn’t appoint himself.

[OneJ]

I’m astonished at the fact that Bryant could’ve appointed Lynn Fitch if McConnell really wanted a woman that bad. At least Bryant didn’t appoint himself.

I was gonna say, Stacey Pickering has a penis (southern males with female names)  but you already edited it!

Lol! I had to catch myself at that point.

[OneJ]

Cindy Hyde-Smith can and will beat back Chris McDaniel and ultimately win the seat. From my sources, she’s well liked and intelligent. She has all the credentials needed for a race in MS: religious, conservative, and relatable. Smith is a tried and true conservative who served MS well. Chris McDaniel is an opportunistic pseudo-conservative who cares about himself more than the country.

Everything you said is true, except I'm not 100% sure on the first sentence. Especially if Andy Taggart stupidly butts into the race and takes Jackson area Establishment Republican votes away from her.

Smith will get her base from rural voters. She’s from a farming community. McDaniel is the one from Jackson.

But McDaniel's base is actually outside of the Jackson area...just look at the 2014 results of the runoff.

[OneJ]

According to this internal, Espy has 18% of the white vote. That’s pretty impressive since many black candidates normally don’t get above 10%. Obama got 11% in 2008 & 10% in 2012. Also in 2008, Fleming, a black candidate who ran against Cochran, got only 8% and ultimately lost to Cochran by a 61-39 margin. Luckily for Espy, black voters are less elastic than even Southern whites.

As for as why Espy has such high name recognition, he’s been on commercials by him being an attorney and all, so I was familiar with him long before this race.

While CHS may be underestimated, remember that we still have a very long time until November 6th and anything can happen, especially since Shelton has jumped into the race and Taggert is seriously considering about joining.

[OneJ]

Espy appears to now have a website:

[snip]

Hooray!!! About time dammit. Thinking about volunteering for Espy or Shelton, especially during the summer.

[OneJ]

I apologize for the double posting...

Wait, Espy has money for a poll but can’t take the time to set up a Twitter account? What a joke.

DSCC better throw in for Shelton

He does now @espyforsenate.

[OneJ]

According to Shelton, he has a fiscally conservative record, such as not raising taxes. Is this true?

Apparently, last year he proposed a $36,000,000+ budget that included a one percent raise in the salaries of city employees and did not require a tax increase.

Here’s his facebook: https://m.facebook.com/jasonleeshelton/

[OneJ]

Not related exactly tho this race, but a new poll by Millsaps University-Chism Strategies has a 44-37 split on whether Mississippi is on the "right track"/"wrong track".

Also interesting from the poll is that Reeves approvals are at 38-34, compared to 55-25 for Hood.  Seems to indicate that a 2019 gubernatorial match up between the two would be very competitive.

Here's a little more information for those interested:
http://kingfish1935.blogspot.com/2018/04/millsaps-chism-survey-voters-like.html

Apparently, they recorded 67% percent of their respondents to be white and only 29% of respondents are black(!). How did that happen? Also, Trump is at 51% approval and 45% disapproval as well.