TX-SEN: True to Form

[Indy Texas]

Good on him for actually sticking to his three-term limit, unlike most Republicans who make the same pledge.

I found the fact that he made that pledge very odd to begin with, since it was stereotypically something that post-1994 "grassroots conservative" Republicans do.

[Indy Texas]

Beto O'Rourke says he's raised nearly $217,000 since announcing, with an average donation of $34.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/849019265491619840

That's already more than Ted's last opponent managed to raise. I personally think this race is likely R but I think after Flake and Heller this is the next place Dem's need to be looking at. You lose 100% of the races you don't contest.

Well, Ted's last opponent was some fat old former Blue Dog state senator from East Texas who had zero constituency or name recognition and hadn't held office since the '90s.

[Indy Texas]

I just wish Beto would fix his terrible campaign logo. I want a bumper sticker that I'd actually be willing to put on my car.

[Indy Texas]

In 2014, John Cornyn only got 59% of the vote in his primary, where the other candidates were Steve Stockman and a bunch of randos.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Cruz could get forced into a runoff in his primary next year. He'd still win it, but he'd have to spend more time and more money doing so.

And if there isn't a "clean repeal" of the ACA, I could see some Tea Party dead-ender running as an independent and saying that Cruz broke his promise, maybe getting 3-5% of the GE vote.

[Indy Texas]

Cruz sex tape imminent?

https://www.twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1025866042390863873

At the debate, someone rips Cruz's mask off, revealing he is in fact a creature from another dimension and thus ineligible to serve in the Senate.

[Indy Texas]

Lying Ted meltdown continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesoliphant/status/1038549935489253377

This sounds like something a middle aged white guy would be saying in like 1965.

[Indy Texas]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/09/ted-cruz-reelection-trump-813354

Interesting piece from Politico about the scramble to save Cruz
Not much new information though. The title is a bit clickbaity. Basically, GOP groups are freaking out about being outspent so much, and the master strategy seems to be to deploy Trump and Sen. Cornyn as much as possible in October.

Heavy retail campaigning from Cornyn could hurt O'Rourke, given his popularity. But, as Politico pointed out, Cruz wouldn't even endorse his fellow senator in 2014, so maybe there's a way to separate the two senators in the minds of voters.

Trump will be Trump. We'll be reminded that Cruz is strong on borders, vets and draining the swamp, while O'Rourke will let in the scary foreigners, legalise crime and side with MS13. A unique message tailored to the race (lol). I can't imagine it will change too many minds.

Cornyn got 59% of the vote in the 2014 GOP primary. He faced no serious opposition - the other 41% was split among Rep. Steve Stockman and various protest candidates.

Cornyn is not a good choice to energize GOP base turnout or appeal to independent voters.

[Indy Texas]

Cruz will probably win but the "muh there's no way he loses!!" shtick is getting dumber and dumber by the day. It's really not rocket science: a candidate that's behind by 2 or 3 points in polling averages two months before the election has a significant chance to win their race. Everything else (like "where's muh coalition??") is irrelevant nonsense.

My guess is he wins but by an embarrassingly close margin, like when Mark Warner won 49-48 in 2014 against Ed Gillespie.

[Indy Texas]

https://www.therealbeto.com/ lol

Oh f*** off, Ted Cruz. It's not like you're going to represent every demographic in your state either.

His hometown of Houston and Harris County will vote like 60% against him.

His home town will give him 0% of the vote since his home town is Calgary, Alberta.

Got im!

I kind of wish Beto would be a bit dirtier with the "not a true Texan" angle of Cruz. For example, here is the sole picture I could find of Ted Cruz in a cowboy hat:

Ted Cruz enjoys many human pursuits, including the wearing of hats atop one's head.

Cowboy hats are very useful headgear for shielding one's face and neck from the sun, which the human epidermis is very sensitive to. Ted Cruz could never secrete a UV-protecting mucus-like substance from his pores, because, after all, all of the cells that comprise Ted Cruz have 100% human DNA.

[Indy Texas]

https://www.therealbeto.com/ lol

Oh f*** off, Ted Cruz. It's not like you're going to represent every demographic in your state either.

His hometown of Houston and Harris County will vote like 60% against him.

His home town will give him 0% of the vote since his home town is Calgary, Alberta.

So Democrats were busing illegals to vote for them all along! It's just that they were Canadians, not Mexicans

Why didn't they bus me then?

I dunno. It’s a stupid conspiracy theory that’s spreading locally. It’s probably an excuse for Republicans here locally not accepting that Houston has gotten more progressive.

I remember there was a army exercise in Texas a few years ago when Obama was president. The army chose Texas because of it's perceived patriotic nature. There was rumors swirling around that the drill was a trick, and Obama and the UN were going to send in the army to declare martial law and take away their guns.

Pretty sure they chose it because the desert landscape of West Texas was a reasonably close approximation to the Middle East.

[Indy Texas]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

45-46% isn't good enough to win an election in general unless there are more than two candidates.

[Indy Texas]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

Obviously that won't win it, but it would be one of the best results a Democrat has gotten in Texas this century I'm pretty sure, if not THE best.

Current record for "closest statewide TX race in the 21st century" is 2002 Lt. Governor.

Dewhurst (R) 51.8
Sharp (D) 46.0

So...there is a solid chance that Beto ends up with the best result for a 21st century Democrat in Texas, and if he doesn't, he'll end up narrowly in second to that.

EDIT:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=48&year=2002&f=0&off=6&elect=0

This is Dewhurst/Sharp 2002. Imagine if Cruz/O'Rourke comes to that same 5.8% margin. The map would look so different in just 16 years. Sharp didn't carry Harris County! He won Dallas County by 3 points!

It was a different time. And in earlier elections, Harris County was often one of the few counties that the Democrats didn't win.

Ex. In 1978, future Secretary of State James Baker ran for attorney general against future governor Mark White.

It was 55.6% White, 44.4% Baker.