TX-SEN: True to Form

[KingSweden]

Likely R, of course. The primary to replace him ought to be interesting

[KingSweden]

The primary in TX-16 should get interesting. Joe Moody would make a good Congressman but Is be shocked if we don't get a Hispanic RGV machine Dem

[KingSweden]

Rawlings would make a compelling Gov candidate, IMO, rather than Senate

[KingSweden]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

Just me, but if anyone said one tenth about my wife what Trump said about Cruz's, I would have leapt across the stage in blind rage

Ted Cruz is a coward

[KingSweden]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I would just give up. Don't believe any out of state commies. I was born and raised in Texas, and have lived here my entire life. And I am here to say that Texas will start to become competitive around ten years from now, and maybe would tilt D twenty years from now. But now is too early. Cruz will win most probably with a margin in the lower to mid 10s. This race is not competitive, look elsewhere for now.

Looks like you spoke too soon, Da-Jon has spoken

[KingSweden]

Hypothetically, how would Former Admiral and Chancellor of the UT system William McRaven do if he ran?

I'm very skeptical of whether McRaven actually has political ambitions, but a well-respected former military official with a fairly inspiring personal story would be great for a state like Texas.

Isn't he debating TX Gov?

[KingSweden]

Hypothetically, how would Former Admiral and Chancellor of the UT system William McRaven do if he ran?

I'm very skeptical of whether McRaven actually has political ambitions, but a well-respected former military official with a fairly inspiring personal story would be great for a state like Texas.

Isn't he debating TX Gov?

Huh, is he? I think, strangely, Texas is one of the few blue states where it might be easier for a Democrat to win the Senate than the governorship, along with Arizona.

Heard that somewhere. McRaven would be a great recruit against Greg abbott

[KingSweden]

Congressman Joaquin Castro said on the Daily Show yesterday that he believes Beto will win. Source.

I mean what else would he say

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/997284947034558465

Beto will be up, y’all, this race is over.

[KingSweden]

That's a lot of money in one month:

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/997478904578433024

Ok yeah Beto is definitely going to beat Cruz in money, question is if his message will resonate in the Suburbs of TX.

He’ll have the resources to get his message out, more than most Democrats can say in Texas, that’s for sure

[KingSweden]

Lying Ted Cruz up to his old tricks again:

https://www.twitter.com/TexanTruth42/status/1000838395898232832

Is it me or it's a terrible strategy to get people to fund your campaign?

Nobody likes to receive mail that says "summons".  If I got something like that, it would incline me against voting for whoever sent it (regardless of their party).

This

[KingSweden]

No one knows who Beto is.  From a media stand point.  Mike Espy and David Baria are much better known. But, in this environment, neither are flipping, though

These statements are just false.

[KingSweden]

Lol at people saying “but Clinton won it 1992!”


What would those same people say to someone in 2004 who said “but Reagan won California in ‘84?”

Roughly the same time elapsed.....

Even more time, actually.

[KingSweden]

I can't believe I'm saying this about Ted Cruz, and we'll have to see the actual bill to be sure, but the talking points about this bill seem very focused and reasonable.  I was expecting him to propose something that would include full funding for the wall, etc., and put Democrats in the position of opposing a fix to the child separation problem.

Are there any substantial differences between his bill and the one proposed by Senate Democrats?

[KingSweden]

I can't believe I'm saying this about Ted Cruz, and we'll have to see the actual bill to be sure, but the talking points about this bill seem very focused and reasonable.  I was expecting him to propose something that would include full funding for the wall, etc., and put Democrats in the position of opposing a fix to the child separation problem.

Are there any substantial differences between his bill and the one proposed by Senate Democrats?

I'm not up on the Senate bill.  This is what I saw for the Cruz bill:

• Double the number of federal immigration judges, from 375 to 750.
  
• Authorize new temporary shelters with accommodations to keep families together.
  
• Mandate that familes must be kept together, absent aggravated criminal conduct or threat of harm to the children.
  
• Provide for expedited processing and review of asylum cases.

These are all reasonable IMO

[KingSweden]

O'Rourke has campaigned in all 254 counties already. Impressive.

Even Loving County?  There are like, 80 people total there, lol.

Every single vote counts, that's why O'Rourke campaigns there because we all know that any election could be won very, very, very narrowly, especially if O'Rourke wants to become the first Democrat to win a senate race in Texas since 1994.

And it shows that he wants to represent every Texan. It was a smart move.

[KingSweden]

That is a bonkers amount of money

[KingSweden]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

Seriously, that’d be a red alert for the RNC

[KingSweden]

Stupid Cruz’s problem is shutting down the government.  GOP businessman just hate that.  He needs to promise no more shutdowns. .

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not sure if you were joking or not but it seems like that may be the case.

The Cruz-Patrick takeover of the TXGOP I imagine has not pleased the more old school business wing of the party

[KingSweden]

Stupid Cruz’s problem is shutting down the government.  GOP businessman just hate that.  He needs to promise no more shutdowns. .

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not sure if you were joking or not but it seems like that may be the case.

Why would you think I was joking.  I detest Cruz.  I hate government shutdowns.

There was a story linked on DKE about how a lot of big TX donors are keeping their wallets shut out of long memory displeasure over Cruz’s first term antics

[KingSweden]

The GOP  IS NOT worried about Cruz losing. They worry the margin will be underwhelming and allow Dems to gather enthusiasm in the state.

Dropping House races is probably the big issue

[KingSweden]

RCP has now rated the senate race in Texas as toss-up.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018#Predictions

Whoa

[KingSweden]

I think it's pretty silly to say cruz is a bad politician. Do you like his positions? That's up to you. But he's definitely a good politician.

-Beat an establishment candidate
-Is probably the most hated senator in congress, even within his own party, and appeared to build a coalition between the establishment and the conservative base. Donald was just donald

I think you need more than one primary election to be declared a good politician. Not that it's a negative mark or anything on his record, but we have other elections and now (part of) this campaign to look at. And isn't him being hated a black mark, if anything? I sort of doubt that if he were less hated he'd have done worse in 2016, for instance.

Being that hated and being the establishment choice is a very tactical move. Cruz is a student of the game. Dude studied Obama's groundwork game and would have been the nominee if trump was not there

Didn’t he make his team read Axelrod’s book about the ‘08 campaign when he took on Dewhurst?

[KingSweden]

Jalaketu West has said a number of objectionable things to me previously. At any rate, this thread should not be derailed any further then it already has been.

Whether or not Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West has said objectionable things to you previously is irrelevant to the intellectual argument advanced by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West. That argument was namely that the purpose Doctor Imperialism was trying to achieve with Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Doctor Imperialism's post was to achieve the behavior known as "humor." Now, let's be clear. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West's argument that the purpose Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Doctor Imperialism was trying to achieve with Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Doctor Imperialism's post was to achieve the behavior known as "humor" is either a valid argument or an invalid argument, but its validity or invalidity does not depend upon the fact that Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu was the person who put forth the argument into a public forum for our mutual due consideration and debate. Determining the validity of Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalekatu West's argument, rather, requires making an extensive and detailed list of the points that are pro and the points that are con. You must consider both sides of the argument in weighing the quality of the claim, and then think "on the one hand x, but on the other hand y."

In addition to this argument, Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West also deigned to make a suggestion that you yourself might consider trying to engage in the behavior known as "humor" some time. Of course, it goes without saying that in order to do such a thing you would also need to formulate a list of the arguments in favor and opposed to engaging in such a behavior. Now, let's be clear once again. The suggestion advanced by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West could be either a good suggestion or a bad suggestion, but the quality of the suggestion doesn't depend upon whether it was made by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jaleketu West, or alternatively by Donald Trump or Barack Obama (neither of whom, as far as I am aware, are Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered Users). Whoever made the suggestion, it is either a good one or a bad one on its own actual merits, wouldn't you say?

I hope that this post has been edifying and makes it easier to understand how to proceed in analyzing arguments on an online bulletin board such as the Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Congressional Elections sub-forum.

This post literally made me physically squirm. Well done, good sir

[KingSweden]

Top Trump Adviser Says Ted Cruz Could Lose Texas Senate Race

When I clicked on the link I did not expect Mulvaney to be making the prediction