🇩🇪 German state & local elections (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 13, 2024, 02:48:15 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  🇩🇪 German state & local elections (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German state & local elections  (Read 127456 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« on: September 01, 2019, 07:58:13 PM »
Looks like Greens under-performed
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2019, 05:59:11 AM »
In Saxony I guess it will be CDU-SPD-Greens for ruling bloc ?  It seem same for Brandenburg unless SPD-Greens are willing to include the Left. CDU-SPD-Greens coalition seems like the best way for the AfD vote share to rise even further next election.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2019, 09:04:40 AM »
So we are headed toward Linke+AfD>50 right ?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2019, 08:13:46 AM »
When do polls close? 5pm or 6pm Berlin time ?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2019, 12:34:47 PM »
It seems CDU and Greens are under-performing pre-election polls while Linke seems to be over-performing pre-election polls
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2019, 12:41:37 PM »
Latest ARD
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2019, 12:45:25 PM »
Greens losing ground from 2014 so far. Excellent
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2019, 03:34:54 PM »
Looks like FDP make it, for now.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2019, 05:15:04 PM »
5.0004% with 3 voting stations left  for FDP.  Amazing
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2020, 07:38:57 AM »
Quote from: Ye Olde Europe on February 05, 2020, 07:36:46 AM
Quote from: Cassius on February 05, 2020, 07:34:15 AM
Quote from: Ye Olde Europe on February 05, 2020, 07:33:01 AM
I was utterly wrong. Kenmerich was just elected MP. Game over.

With AfD support?

Excellent. Hopefully this sort of coalition is replicated at the federal level after the next election.

Yup. They used their own candidate as sort of a trojan horse.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2020, 09:23:08 AM »
Quote from: Ye Olde Europe on February 05, 2020, 07:56:50 AM
Quote from: jaichind on February 05, 2020, 07:38:57 AM
Excellent. Hopefully this sort of coalition is replicated at the federal level after the next election.

What coalition?

De facto CDU/CDS-PFP-AfD post election coalition
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2020, 08:38:54 AM »
Hopefully AfD CDU FDP wins a majority
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2020, 09:33:15 AM »
Quote from: Ye Olde Europe on February 06, 2020, 08:49:36 AM
Quote from: jaichind on February 06, 2020, 08:38:54 AM
Hopefully AfD CDU FDP wins a majority

The FDP will probably fail to make it past the 5% threshold again though.

A AfD-CDU majority is a possibility. But after the chaos and debacle of the last 24 hours a government between them is less likely than ever before.

I have to assume that in an election there will be a consolidation of the vote toward Linke and AfD vote in which case the risk of FDP and Greens falling below 5% would be a key factor in which bloc gets a majority.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2020, 11:33:49 AM »
I have to assume that a Linke+SPD+Green majority is possible or even likely if Greens can get above 5% despite what I might hope for.  Still I think this is a great opportunity for the local FDP and CDU to assert that they will make common cause with AfD if necessary to stop a Linke led government.  They might lose this time but will win next time.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2021, 04:52:31 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2021, 05:06:42 PM by jaichind »
Prediction

CDU      28
AFD      23
Linke    13
SPD      12
Green     9
FDP        6
FW         3
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2021, 07:15:27 AM »
Quote from: Geoffrey Howe on June 06, 2021, 03:24:36 AM
Quote from: jaichind on June 05, 2021, 04:52:31 PM
Prediction

CDU      28
AFD      23
Linke    13
SPD      12
Green     9
FDP        6
FW         3

Who are you supporting?
I can’t make my mind up, but I don’t want AfD in (state) government.

I am for AfD although I suspect they will underperform.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2021, 04:48:57 PM »
Quote from: Geoffrey Howe on June 06, 2021, 04:45:05 PM
Quote from: H. Ross Peron on June 06, 2021, 04:44:33 PM
Quote from: Geoffrey Howe on June 06, 2021, 04:33:35 PM
Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?


German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

Yeah, this is a surprise.  It is not a surprise that there was anti-AfD tactical voting by Green and SPD voters but I would have expected Linke voters to vote AfD to tactically defeat CDU versus other way around.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2022, 11:02:29 AM »

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #18 on: May 08, 2022, 11:06:10 AM »
This seems like a CDU outperformance relative to pre-election polls.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2022, 11:01:09 AM »
exit poll   CDU 35  SPD  27.5
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2022, 06:51:20 AM »
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2022, 06:52:44 AM »
I would be very interested in the Green and AfD vote shares relative to pre-election polls.  This will get a sense of the view of the voters on the current energy crisis triggered by the aftershocks of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2023, 02:40:40 PM »
Quote from: Middle-aged Europe on February 09, 2023, 12:40:43 PM
INSA poll for Berlin

CDU 25%
SPD 19%
Greens 18%
Left 12%
AfD 10%
FDP 6%


SPD and Greens ended their campaigns on particularly chummy terms where I think it has been stressed enough already now that a government doesn't necessarily have to be led by the strongest party (like the SPD did on the federal level three out of four timed between '69 and '82). CDU and FDP will almost certainly cry a lot about a "coalition of losers" and such.

It seems that this poll has a large percentage of votes for "others."  Any chance a lot of them will shift their vote to parties that can be above 5% last minute? If so which parties will that benefit ?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2023, 12:34:25 PM »
AfD might come in second place in both states. 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2023, 02:30:09 PM »
What a hammering of the Federal ruling parties
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 12 queries.