Italy 2013: The official thread

[Tender Branson]

Has anyone noticed how Berlusconi bought Mario Balotelli recently for his AC Milan to win the close Lombardy election ? It is thought that the purchase might win him a few points there and therefore the election.

I only mentioned this twice already.

An analyst suggested he could gain up to four hundred thousand extra votes. Seems totally ridiculous to me but who knows?

I read it in the Standard today:

http://derstandard.at/1358305374608/Balotelli-der-Wahlhelfer

I didn't even hear before that Balotelli changed to Milan, but yeah, he seems popular enough to help Berlusconi there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Everything that's wrong with football right there.

And about twelve percent of what's wrong with Italy.

[Keystone Phil]

Demopolis from yesterday...

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.8%
Center-right - 28%
M5S - 16.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.4%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.3%


SpinCon (for the laughs) from yesterday...

Italia. Bene Comune - 32.3%
Center-right - 30.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 11.5%
M5S - 11.5%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.8%
Others - 8.5%

[RogueBeaver]

So still a 5-6 pt race. Whew.

[Keystone Phil]

So still a 5-6 pt race. Whew.

I have no idea why this relieves you. More time on the clock is regarded as a plus for Berlusconi and the 2006 polling ended with the left up about five points.

[RogueBeaver]

I'd rather it be 5-6 than say, 2-3.

[Insula Dei]

Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

So we got our answer: Monti and Co. will get third.

Don't be so sure. This might actually help Grillo, you know.

The choice between Mussolini and Ben Laden must be agonizing for the Italian Right. Which one will amuse the rest of Europe the most?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

So we got our answer: Monti and Co. will get third.

Don't be so sure. This might actually help Grillo, you know.

The choice between Mussolini and Ben Laden must be agonizing for the Italian Right. Which one will amuse the rest of Europe the most?

Given the people you are talking about, I'm not sure 'agonizing' is the most accurate word here.

[Zanas]

This whole sh**t is so wrong. On all levels.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm at a campaign meeting. Someone said Grillo claims he never made the al Qaeda remark.

[Insula Dei]

Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

So we got our answer: Monti and Co. will get third.

Don't be so sure. This might actually help Grillo, you know.

The choice between Mussolini and Ben Laden must be agonizing for the Italian Right. Which one will amuse the rest of Europe the most?

Given the people you are talking about, I'm not sure 'agonizing' is the most accurate word here.

If possible they'd have both, of course.

[Simfan34]

This is hilarious. I cannot wait for the inevitable aneurism The Economist will have if Berlusconi wins this. How long will a Berlusconi government likely last?

[Kitteh]

I have to admit, there is a very tiny part of me that wants to see Berlusconi elected just because it would be hilarious. Fortunately the sane part of me still is in control

[Keystone Phil]

Balotelli scores opener. Udinese ties. Milan given a controversial last minute penalty kick and Balotelli scores the winner. Oh, Silvio...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm at a campaign meeting. Someone said Grillo claims he never made the al Qaeda remark.

He was recorded on TV. LOL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Demopolis from yesterday...

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.8%
Center-right - 28%
M5S - 16.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.4%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.3%

I found slightly different numbers...

Una coalizione di Centro Sinistra guidata da Bersani: 34,2%
Una coalizione di Centro Destra guidata da Berlusconi: 27,4%
Una coalizione di Centro guidata da Monti: 15,5%
Movimento 5 Stelle di Grillo: 16%
Rivoluzione Civile di Ingroia: 4,5%
Altre coalizioni o liste: sotto il 2,4%
Non sa: 20%
Affluenza: 75%

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Berlusconi's big economic speech today was about repealing the new property tax (replacing lost revenue by striking a tax deal with Switzerland), the regional business tax and cut personal income tax. Naturally there's nothing about how to finance any of this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently Berlusconi's big economic speech today was about repealing the new property tax (replacing lost revenue by striking a tax deal with Switzerland), the regional business tax and cut personal income tax. Naturally there's nothing about how to finance any of this.

It's actually worse than that. He said he would pay taxpayers back for the additional taxes they have already paid under Monti. A 2-year-old kid would understand the trick.

[RogueBeaver]

As usual with him, lowest common denominator.

[Lurker]

How does the majority bonus thing work? and does the bonus apply to the senate as well?

[RogueBeaver]

Whichever coalition wins a plurality of the Chamber of Deputies popular vote automatically gets ~54%, or 340ish, seats. In 2006 Prodi beat Berlusconi by 0.1% as an example. Senate's more complicated, ask one of the Italians here.

[Zuza]

For Senate elections bonus applied, but on a regional rather than national basis.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How does the majority bonus thing work? and does the bonus apply to the senate as well?

Hi Lurker, I encourage you to read the introduction I wrote in the opening posts of this thread. By post#4 and #5, there's everything you need to know about the intricacies of the Italian voting system.

Anyway, yes, the short version is as the others said. The coalition with the most vote gets a guaranteed national 340-seats blocs for the House, and a similar guaranteed seat block - but at the regional level - for the Senate.

[Tender Branson]

New ISPO poll:

PD    30,8
Sel    4,9
Altri di centrosinistra    0,9

Totale coalizione di centrosinistra    36,6

Pdl    19,1
Lega Nord    4,9
La Destra    1,6
Fratelli d'Italia - Centrodestra Nazionale    2
Altri di centrodestra    0,5

Totale coalizione di centrodestra    28,1

Udc    3,8
Fli    1,1
Scelta Civica con Monti per l'Italia    9,7
Movimento 5 Stelle    13,6
Rivoluzione Civile    4,6
Amnistia giustizia e libertà - Pannella    1,1
Fare per Fermare il Declino    1,3
Altro partito    0,1

[Tender Branson]

The left-margin declined by 2% though in the past week from about 10.5% in their Jan. 24 poll to about 8.5% now in the latest poll.