Italy 2013: The official thread

[Tender Branson]

A lot of sondaggis today:





...

ISPO:

Pdl 21,2
Lega Nord 5,2
La Destra 1,4
FdI 1,5
Altri Cdx 0,5

Totale Cdx 29,8

Pd 29,9
Sel 4,2
CD 0,8

Totale Csx 34,9

Lista Monti 9,5
Udc 2
Fli 1

Totale CxM 12,5

M5S 16,4

RC Ingroia 3,9

FiD Giannino 1

Amnistia 0,8

http://www.meridianamagazine.org/20130206/il-sondaggio-ispo-conferma-la-rimonta-del-centrodestra-ora-a-5-da-bersani-cresce-ancora-grillo-rischia-monti/#.URKWtoGnt8E

...

IPR Marketing:

[Tender Branson]

Compared with the previous ISPO poll that I posted 1 page before, the Left lost 1.7% and the Right gained 1.7% ...

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like Bersani is stuck with trying to make an alliance with Vendola and Monti for a Senate majority (at least that's the story the major Italian papers are pushing) and the latter two aren't making it easy. Vendola is saying it's not possible to make it work. 

[RogueBeaver]

Which of these pollsters is considered the most accurate?

[Keystone Phil]

Tecnè does the daily tracker (and is the one showing the closest margin) but I doubt that's the most accurate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll ask again, what's EMG's track record? They are the ones showing the widest margins for the left.

[Keystone Phil]

Berlusconi claims he is within 2.3 points of IBC. Must be his internal but non-internals aren't too far from this.

[RogueBeaver]

I was gonna ask "what sort of national candidate publicly talks about their internals", but this is SB and therefore the regular playbook is totally irrelevant.

[Keystone Phil]

I was gonna ask "what sort of national candidate publicly talks about their internals", but this is SB and therefore the regular playbook is totally irrelevant.

Well, I'm sure it was a Euromedia poll which probably doesn't technically count as an internal pollster but is affiliated with Berlusconi.

[SPQR]

All pollsters except Euromedia and SpinCon are at the same (decent) level of accuracy.

[Keystone Phil]

Overseas voting began today. Ballots are to be mailed in by February 21st.

Just under three hours until the Senator Giordano-Deputy Berardi campaign kickoff. It's going to be held less than ten minutes from me. Pretty cool to have something like this in my own neighborhood.

There's supposed to be a special guest, too. Silvio?

[Tender Branson]

Remember that in the next 2 weeks, polls will be prohibited in Italy.

[Keystone Phil]

Remember that in the next 2 weeks, polls will be prohibited in Italy.

So let's squeeze in as many as possible!

SWG

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.8%
Center-right - 27.8%
M5S - 18.8% (!)
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.4%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.1%
Other - 2.1%

Demos

Italia. Bene Comune - 34.1%
Center-right - 28.6%
M5S - 16%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 16%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Other - 1.3%

[Keystone Phil]

Ingroia is saying he will offer his votes to IBC in the Senate if they don't partner with Monti but how would that work? They're already running alone and they're not going to win a plurality in any region to get seats...

[Antonio the Sixth]

An average of the most recent polls gives 34.9% for the left and 29.2% for the right.

[RogueBeaver]

So looking like a 4-5 point IBC victory at this stage, so long as we don't get a 2006 repeat. If there are any last minute shifts we won't know.

[Keystone Phil]

Was today the actual last day for polling?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So looking like a 4-5 point IBC victory at this stage, so long as we don't get a 2006 repeat. If there are any last minute shifts we won't know.

Yeah, this 2-week ban on poll is ridiculous. I'm all for having a "period of calm" right before the election, but a couple day (as it is in France) should be enough.

Anyway, the average lead of the left in 2006 was 5.5 points. Now it's 5.7...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Was today the actual last day for polling?

Yup.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT calls SB a "wildcard", that he can't win outright but just wants influence.  I hope they're right.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/09/world/europe/berlusconi-remains-the-wild-card-in-italy-parliament-race.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=0

[Keystone Phil]

Was today the actual last day for polling?

Yup.

When will there be a debate? Is there even going to be a debate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Was today the actual last day for polling?

Yup.

When will there be a debate? Is there even going to be a debate?

Last time I heard about it, the negotiations for a debate had collapsed because Berlusconi wanted the debate to be between coalition leaders (him, Bersani and Monti) while Bersani wanted to also include Grillo, Ingroia and Giannino. No idea why they each had this position, but maybe they were just looking for a pretext to not have a debate...

[RogueBeaver]

That seems most likely to me. Has Italy done GE debates before, and if so, in which elections?

[Keystone Phil]

That seems most likely to me. Has Italy done GE debates before, and if so, in which elections?

They definitely did in 2006: Berlusconi vs. Prodi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, just "voted"!

By "voted", I mean, my parents put a cross on the symbol I indicated and then put my ballot in the envelope... which of course looks nothing like really voting.