Italy 2013: The official thread

[Keystone Phil]

The Senate polls in Lombardy and Sicily show both as toss ups though. I wouldn't say there is a consistent lead for either side.

And some polls show the national lead well lower than 9% unless you're saying they're total junk polls (which you and a few others would know better than the rest of us).

[Andrea]

I guess Nichi is to blame for the Puglia numbers.

I think the Puglia numbers are more or less in line with national swing.

[SPQR]

The Senate polls in Lombardy and Sicily show both as toss ups though. I wouldn't say there is a consistent lead for either side.

And some polls show the national lead well lower than 9% unless you're saying they're total junk polls (which you and a few others would know better than the rest of us).

The only polls showing a lead well lower than 9% are Euromedia,which is Berlusconi's pollster,and SpinCon which is junk (online polls!)

[Keystone Phil]

Andrea didn't include the Datamonitor poll from yesterday so here it is (essentially the same as EMG):

Italia. Bene Comune - 37.5%
Center-right - 28.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.7%
M5S - 12.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.2%
Others - 2.3%


As for SpinCon, if it really is some online poll, I won't post them anymore.

[Andrea]

Euromedia regional polls

Lombardia: Berlusconi 35.4 Bersani 35.2 Monti 13.6 Grillo 10.4 Ingroia 3.6
Veneto: Berlusconi 48.7 Bersani 32.6 Monti 11 Grillo 5 Ingroia 1.2
Campania: Bersani 34.7 Berlusconi 32.4 Monti 12.8 Grillo 10.3 Ingroia 7.5
Sicily: Berlusconi 31.6 Bersani 31.4 Monti 14.7 Grillo 13.8 Ingroia 6.1

Their Lombardia, Campania and Sicilia polls are in line with IPSO and IPR. Their national polls look a bit strange given these regional polls...except for Veneto. Veneto is a bit bizarre with both Grillo and Ingroia very low.

[MaxQue]

Strange, in the list of the North American PD candidates, I spotted a Montreal borough councillor.
So, I suppose binationals can run?

[Franknburger]

Strange, in the list of the North American PD candidates, I spotted a Montreal borough councillor.
So, I suppose binationals can run?

Obviously, as their European top candidate also has dual (German/ Italian) citizenship.

[minionofmidas]

Why shouldn't they - binational residents can run for elections in every civilized country; probably a majority of the people eligible to vote in the abroad constituencies are binationals; the whole point of creating abroad seats is to give more power to binational people as they are a comparatively upper-caste group.

[Keystone Phil]

It shouldn't be surprising that the candidates are dual citizens. That's the whole point.

Max, a lot of the North American candidates on both sides have been local councilors in Quebec or Ontario.

[SPQR]

Euromedia regional polls

Lombardia: Berlusconi 35.4 Bersani 35.2 Monti 13.6 Grillo 10.4 Ingroia 3.6
Veneto: Berlusconi 48.7 Bersani 32.6 Monti 11 Grillo 5 Ingroia 1.2
Campania: Bersani 34.7 Berlusconi 32.4 Monti 12.8 Grillo 10.3 Ingroia 7.5
Sicily: Berlusconi 31.6 Bersani 31.4 Monti 14.7 Grillo 13.8 Ingroia 6.1

Their Lombardia, Campania and Sicilia polls are in line with IPSO and IPR. Their national polls look a bit strange given these regional polls...except for Veneto. Veneto is a bit bizarre with both Grillo and Ingroia very low.

This Veneto poll seems more like a prediction based on past results and recent trends than a real poll.

[Keystone Phil]

Let me get this straight: regarding an alliance of leftists and the lack of inclusion for RC, Bersani said he doesn't have Ingroia's phone number (I guess as a half serious excuse as to why they haven't been communicating). In response, Ingroia publishes a photo of his phone with his text to "Pier Luigi" on the screen from December with no response from Bersani.

Oh, I love silly process stories.

[Keystone Phil]

SWG has the following today...

Italia. Bene Comune - 34.1%
Center-right - 26.6%
M5S - 17.2%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

SWG has the following today...

Italia. Bene Comune - 34.1%
Center-right - 26.6%
M5S - 17.2%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%

Are they a serious pollster?
In that case what made Grillo jump back up to those high levels after several polls showed them falling down to about 10-12%?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've seen the last few polls, and all seem to have the left leading by 7-8 points. That's pretty poor and nowhere near what it should be, but the lead seems to be steady and consistent. Everything can still happen, but I think we're not in panic mode just yet.

[Keystone Phil]

Exactly one month to go. An eight point lead and Silvio hasn't ramped up campaigning yet. Just saying.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Exactly one month to go. An eight point lead and Silvio hasn't ramped up campaigning yet. Just saying.

"hasn't ramped up campaigning yet"? You probably haven't seen the same campaign as I have.

Anyways, I find your implicit salivating at the idea of a Berlusconi comeback (despite your insistence that you don't support him) pretty disheartening.

[Keystone Phil]

Pointing out that the race has undeniably narrowed (unless you're one poster that still refuses to acknowledge it) and that Berlusconi has a history of closing strong counts as "salivating" over a win? One can't objectively point out a comeback? God, some of you are getting awfully desperate/angry and taking it out on the wrong people.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pointing out that the race has undeniably narrowed (unless you're one poster that still refuses to acknowledge it) and that Berlusconi has a history of closing strong counts as "salivating" over a win? One can't objectively point out a comeback? God, some of you are getting awfully desperate/angry and taking it out on the wrong people.

We've all noticed by now that the gap has narrowed. This has been widely discussed in this thread including by myself (and not exactly in overconfident tones, as you can remember). However, that was the news of two or three weeks ago. If you look at the big picture, you can see there has not been much movement in most recent polls. However, 90% of your posts in this thread keep being about how Berlusconi's inevitable comeback is on a roll. You sound pretty much like those who still saw a "Romney momentum" in the last week of October. And since these people weren't absolutely neutral in their support, that led me to think you aren't either. I apologize if I misunderstood.

I think you know I've no problem discussing with people of different opinions, but supporting Berlusconi isn't a problem in political views - it's a moral issue. Hence why I'm annoyed when I see you verging on this.

[Keystone Phil]

The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.

Would you mind to explain what's so ridiculous? I know the "Berlusconi is coming back" narrative is always a very tempting one to adopt, but being as confident as you are never makes much sense (Sarkozy will be reelected, right?).

[Keystone Phil]

The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.

Would you mind to explain what's so ridiculous? I know the "Berlusconi is coming back" narrative is always a very tempting one to adopt, but being as confident as you are never makes much sense (Sarkozy will be reelected, right?).

And Sarkozy was nearly re-elected. 

What was ridiculous was your suggestion that 90% of my posts in the thread have been about Berlusconi's inevitable comeback.

1) 90%? Really, dude?
2) I've never argued that the comeback is "inevitable." I haven't argued that Silvio will win.
3) I'm here for answers, to post news and discuss the dynamics of the race. I really have no desire to "campaign" here. If you want to get all sanctimonious about how someone's support in this election is a "moral issue," go ahead. I'm not engaging in that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.

Would you mind to explain what's so ridiculous? I know the "Berlusconi is coming back" narrative is always a very tempting one to adopt, but being as confident as you are never makes much sense (Sarkozy will be reelected, right?).

And Sarkozy was nearly re-elected. 

What was ridiculous was your suggestion that 90% of my posts in the thread have been about Berlusconi's inevitable comeback.

1) 90%? Really, dude?
2) I've never argued that the comeback is "inevitable." I haven't argued that Silvio will win.
3) I'm here for answers, to post news and discuss the dynamics of the race. I really have no desire to "campaign" here. If you want to get all sanctimonious about how someone's support in this election is a "moral issue," go ahead. I'm not engaging in that.

Oh come on now. We all have opinions and discussing their respective moral standing is a part of the game. I didn't think you'd be that sensitive.

And yeah, mine was obviously a hyperbole and I apologize for that, but you can't deny you've been rambling about Berlusconi's comeback much more than anyone else. And you keep talking about it like a massive movement just taking place despite the fact it hasn't been all that evident in the most recent polls. You seemed to me (emphasis on seemed, again sorry if I misunderstood) overly excited about all this.

Anyway, predicting that Sarkozy would make it to 48% would have been an audacious but defensible prediction. Predicting, with such confidence, that he would win while he was polling in the low 40s was just plain stupid.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, I've been "rambling" about his comeback because 95% of the people here viciously hate him and you have one person that actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback. So, yeah, by comparison I guess I do seem like a fan.

I'm not getting into a flame war about my Sarkozy prediction but I must say your reasoning there makes absolutely no sense. Saying he'd end up with 48% of the vote while polling in the low 40s would have been fine but predicting he'd get just 2.1% more than that is plain stupid? Uh. Ok. It would have been indefensible if he ended up being swamped but he wasn't so I don't understand why guessing closer to the actual result was stupid. It just seemed stupid at a certain time.

Let's just drop that. Feel free to start a new thread to battle that one out. I think you've done enough damage here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, I've been "rambling" about his comeback because 95% of the people here viciously hate him and you have one person that actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback. So, yeah, by comparison I guess I do seem like a fan.

I'm not getting into a flame war about my Sarkozy prediction but I must say your reasoning there makes absolutely no sense. Saying he'd end up with 48% of the vote while polling in the low 40s would have been fine but predicting he'd get just 2.1% more than that is plain stupid? Uh. Ok. It would have been indefensible if he ended up being swamped but he wasn't so I don't understand why guessing closer to the actual result was stupid. It just seemed stupid at a certain time.

Let's just drop that. Feel free to start a new thread to battle that one out. I think you've done enough damage here.

Sorry, but I'm not going to let this stand.

First of all, who the hell is the guy who "actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback"? I hope you're not talking about me, because that would mean you really didn't pay attention.

Also, the fact you seem to think "viciously" hating Berlusconi is something else than the soundest and most natural possible attitude is already pretty bad. This guy is a vile abomination of mankind. That's a fact. There's no need to be a moderate hero about this.

And yes, of course it does make some sense to imagine the gap would narrow a bit. Elections do tend to narrow more often than not (though of course it could have narrowed much less than it actually did). But for a candidate as deeply unpopular as Sarkozy to actually pull a win, it would take much more. Yeah, there's a pretty big difference between 48% and 50%. But even this doesn't really matter. You said "Sarkozy will win". You didn't even say he might win or there's a fair chance. You made a ridiculously bold prediction that turned out decidedly wrong: you lost. You can't use the fact he came close as an excuse.

[Keystone Phil]

Read the thread. It isn't you.

The rest of your rambling really isn't worth my time. Move on.