Italy 2013: The official thread

[Andrea]

IPR

National: Bersani 35.4% Berlusconi 28& Monti 14.8% Grillo 14.6% Ingroia 4.7%
Lombardy: Bersani 35% Berlusconi 33% Monti 13%
Sicily: Bersani and Berlusconi 34% Monti 14%
Campania: Bersani 34% Berlusconi 30% Monti 18%
Veneto: Berlusconi 40% Bersani 32% Monti 13%

EMG
Bersani 36.8% Berlusconi 28%   Monti 14.5% Grillo 13.5% Ingroia 5%

Euromedia
Bersani 35% Berlusconi 32.4%  Grillo 13.1% Monti 12.9%  Ingroia 3.5%

Tecné for all regions

Piemonte: Bersani leads by 4.6%
Liguria: Bersani leads by 12%
Lombardy: Bersani 32.9 Belusconi 31.4
Veneto: Berlusconi by 9%
Friuli: Bersani by 2
Emilia: Bersani by 24
Tuscany: Bersani by 22%
Marche: Bersani by 21%
Umbria: Bersani by 21%
Lazio: Bersani by 10.4%
Abruzzo: Bersani by 9%
Campania: Bersani by 4% (Ingroia below the threshold)
Puglia: Bersani by 5%
Basilicata: Bersani by 18%
Calabria: Bersani by 10%
Sicily: Berlusconi 28.1 Bersani 27.6
Sardinia: Bersani by 16%

[SPQR]

ISPO poll on Sicily: 33 Bersani, 32 Berlusconi

[minionofmidas]

While a different outcome was possible, Monti tanking compared to early polls was always the most likely. I wouldn't bet on him breaking 10%.

[Keystone Phil]

How come Ingroia is suddenly below the threshold (!) while Monti is surging in Campania?

Looks like Veneto isn't actually a three or four point race but Friuli is close? Shouldn't that be comfortably center-right?

Sicily being a coin flip should be fun.

[SPQR]

Given national swing,Friuli and Piedmont are both lean-Bersani.

[Antonio the Sixth]

While a different outcome was possible, Monti tanking compared to early polls was always the most likely. I wouldn't bet on him breaking 10%.

Yeah, it takes major political skill to siphon out Berlusconi's hardcore base (that was the only way for Monti to gain traction). A political skill Monti has made it clear he doesn't have. Running was really a stupid idea.

[Keystone Phil]

AC Milan (Berlusconi) bought Balotelli today and I've seen some of my (leftist, Berlusconi hating) friends seriously say this was a campaign move by Silvio.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction: Berlusconi will win again.

Just recently, a left-managed bank in Siena did blow up and this drags Bersani and Monti down.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Prediction: Berlusconi will win again.

Just recently, a left-managed bank in Siena did blow up and this drags Bersani and Monti down.

Yes, I've been hearing about that stuff (I watch the TV news on http://tg.la7.it/)

From what I understand, the accusations thrown at Bersani are frivolous at best. The left is dismissing them pretty confidently (which is far from being usual, you know...). Also, these kinds of scandals happen every month or so, so don't make much of it.

[SPQR]

Accusations against Bersani or PD are ridicolous.

The bank was controlled (55% of shares,now only 33% after an increase in capital) by a Foundation,and 13 of the 16 administrators of the Foundation were chosen by both the Province and the City of Siena,as established by a law from the '90s.
Since PD won both,then the local members had to choose the 16 administrators,but to think that the national secretary is in any way responsible of the management choices of a bank,or of documents which the Bank of Italy itself could not find during its controls on the bank,since they were hidden,is absolutely ridicolous.

Also,the mayor of Siena (PD) lost a confidence vote (through a political maneveur of a former PD councillor and current Scelta Civica candidate) because he wanted to change some administrators of the Foundation.

[palandio]

How come Ingroia is suddenly below the threshold (!) while Monti is surging in Campania?

Looks like Veneto isn't actually a three or four point race but Friuli is close? Shouldn't that be comfortably center-right?

Sicily being a coin flip should be fun.

Don't read too much into regional "polls". I suspect much fluctuation because of very small sample sizes.
At least take all regional polls by different pollsters together.
Lombardy, Veneto, Sicily: Center-Right favored, but not safe.
FVG: At the moment toss-up, baring further movement into Berlusconi's direction.
Campania: Center-Left slightly favored, but complicated situation.
Puglia, Piemonte, Lazio: Center-Left favored.

Monti will be relatively strong in traditional DC strongholds (South, maybe Veneto), maybe he will also siphon some of the "serious" TINA vote from the Center-Right (North, South) and Center-Left (Northern Center).
Ingroia will build upon Rifondazione stronghold like Toscana and Umbria, but also Southern IdV strongholds (Abbruzzo, Molise), his own home region (Sicily) and De Magistris' home region (Campania). The situation is complicated by the fact that Sicily and Campania are toss-ups and there could be some type of "vote utile" effect in favor of the Center-Left.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I keep forgetting the UdC alignment with Monti and they still have those strongholds in Campania.

I guess I just expected the Ingroia/De Magistris strength to last a little longer but ultimately crumble because they are taking away from the realistic winners.

[Keystone Phil]

Accusations against Bersani or PD are ridicolous.

The bank was controlled (55% of shares,now only 33% after an increase in capital) by a Foundation,and 13 of the 16 administrators of the Foundation were chosen by both the Province and the City of Siena,as established by a law from the '90s.
Since PD won both,then the local members had to choose the 16 administrators,but to think that the national secretary is in any way responsible of the management choices of a bank,or of documents which the Bank of Italy itself could not find during its controls on the bank,since they were hidden,is absolutely ridicolous.

Also,the mayor of Siena (PD) lost a confidence vote (through a political maneveur of a former PD councillor and current Scelta Civica candidate) because he wanted to change some administrators of the Foundation.

Isn't it all about perception though? How much involvement did the national PdL have in the Lazio and Lombardy scandals and look at the hit they're taking in each region in the national polls.

[Keystone Phil]

Yesterday's Tecnè...

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.8%
Center-right - 28.6%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.2%
M5S - 13.6%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.8%
Others - 4%

[Andrea]

How come Ingroia is suddenly below the threshold (!) while Monti is surging in Campania?

Looks like Veneto isn't actually a three or four point race but Friuli is close? Shouldn't that be comfortably center-right?

Sicily being a coin flip should be fun.

Don't read too much into regional "polls". I suspect much fluctuation because of very small sample sizes.

The sample sizes for regional polls aren't that small. They aren't subsamples, but proper samples at regional levels.

[Insula Dei]

Can anyone summarize the Montepaschi di Siena story?

[SPQR]

Today there were no public buses in Naples because of a lack of gasoline...De Magistris is quicly losing popularity,and that's what's affecting Ingroia's numbers in Campania.


As for Montepaschi: I partly explained why it's "political" above.
The scandal exploded because in 2007 they bought a bank for 9 billions,when that same bank had been bought for 6 billions only a few months before.
At the time it was a discussed operation,even though they got the go-ahead from the Banca d'Italia (central bank).
Afterwards there was the financial crisis but Montepaschi performed way worse than all other banks,and now,with a change of management of last year,it's been found that there were weird and probably illegal operations,which tried to cover up losses through derivative instruments, and there might well be bribes as well.

What's really disturbing is that the president of Montepaschi at the time of the operation,Mussari,was,until last week,the president of the Italian Banking Association.

[Keystone Phil]

De Magistris went from hero to villain awfully quickly.

[Andrea]

All opposition regional councillors in Lombardy have been under investigation for their expenses (PdL and Lega were already investigated).
7 of them have not been called for an interview. Their position is considered pretty comfortable (apparently the sums involved for them are very low) and the inquest is likely to end here for them. The rest has been called by magistrates to explain their expenses. No accusations have been moved yet. But it will play well for M5S and co during the campaign. It re-inforces the "they are all the same" mantra.
Silvio's papers (Libero and Il Giornale) are already in attack mode.

One of the Cllr put a Hercules DVD in his expenses. LOL!

[Keystone Phil]

Five point race.

Tecnè

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.7%
Center-right - 28.9%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.1%
M5S - 14.9%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.2%
Others - 3.2%

Quorum

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.6%
Center-right - 28.7%
M5S - 15.7%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.7%
Others - 3.5%

[RogueBeaver]

1) Are those national 2) How reliable are said pollsters? In the end I think this could be within 5 but Bersani still wins.

[Keystone Phil]

1) Are those national 2) How reliable are said pollsters? In the end I think this could be within 5 but Bersani still wins.

1) Yes
2) Tecnè has been cited before as reputable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Four point race.

Tecnè

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.7%
Center-right - 28.9%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.1%
M5S - 14.9%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.2%
Others - 3.2%

Quorum

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.6%
Center-right - 28.7%
M5S - 15.7%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.7%
Others - 3.5%

DEAR GOD

[RogueBeaver]

We've still got a few weeks left. I'll only panic if it's in the last week.

[Tender Branson]

The Italian people are utter idiots if they elect Berlusconi again.

But I'd still wait for the Carinthia result the week after Italy, so they are likely not the only ones.