2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[bgwah]

What's with that very red district in Fremont County outside of Lander?

Looks like it includes the Wind River Indian Reservation... Don't forget that house districts have less than 10,000 people in WY!

[bgwah]

After a little eyeballing, it looks like Murray's doing about 5-10 points worse than her 2004 performance (55%). If this were to continue at this rate, she'd end up at about 45-48% of the vote.

Comparing it to a general? Interesting. She got ~48% in the 1998 primary and ended up with about ~58% in the general.

[bgwah]

Currently Cowlitz and Lewis are the two counties reporting out of WA-03. Castillo is getting mauled by Herrera in Cowlitz... Also explains Heck's low numbers.

Crist is doing surprisingly well in Cowlitz at 16%, and Heck is under 30%.

[bgwah]

Hedrick is beating Castillo in WA-3 now, lol. Ouch...

[bgwah]

Good showing by Murray I suspect, even if King is overrepresented. This not much value added dumb incumbent, will be hard to put away I suspect. Just why Washingtonians (Seattle is probably the least "dumb" metro area in the US), want a dumb to represent them, escapes me, but they do. Why don't they elect a Left smart?  Just asking.

Don't you talk like that about my Pattykins!

[bgwah]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

They won't hold that narrow lead at the end of the count. Half of King county, including virtually all of Seattle is still out. And probably 70%+ of the outstanding votes are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%. In the final count the Democrats should be between 51-52%.

Uh, not really. They're perhaps a bit underrepresented relative to the rest of the state at the moment, but certainly not to the extent you're suggesting. What is your source anyway?

[bgwah]

Unofficial results submitted to Atlas!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&off=3&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

[bgwah]

Washington briefly had separate party primaries (including the 2004 primaries) but 1998 had an open primary.

Amusingly enough, it resembles this one somewhat...

1998:
46% Murray (D)
32% Smith (R)
15% Bayley (R)

2010:
46% Murray (D)
34% Rossi (R)
12% Didier (R)

[bgwah]

And just for fun, Republicans-only map:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&off=3&elect=2&fips=53&f=0



Didier strength:



Akers strength:




As you can probably guess, Franklin is Didier's home county, and Whatcom is Akers' home county.

Lewis County being Rossi's 2nd best is very interesting to me, and not something I would have expected. It definitely strikes me as a Tea Party kind of county.

[bgwah]

And just for fun, some of the competitive primaries... And yes I know they're top 2 primaries, but I maintain that the maps are more interesting when the parties are separate!

[bgwah]

What's going on with WA-02? The results were far closer there than I'd have expected.

Koster has run against Larsen before when the seat was open in 2000, and came close to beating him. Furthermore, Larsen had two challenges from the left that nabbed about 10%. The race is where I expected it, really--still lean Larsen but definitely one to keep an eye on.

Edit: For comparison, the 2000 results:

2000 Primary:
49.06% Koster (R)
46.40% Larsen (D)
2.90% Stuart Andrews (R)
1.64% Glen S. Johnson (R)

2000 General:
50.01% Larsen (D)
45.93% Koster (R)
2.62% Stuart Andrews (R)
1.44% Glen S. Johnson (R)

[bgwah]

I've heard a lot of 1994 comparisons for Washington. I've already addressed this, but in 1994 the primary was a very big indicator that the Democrats were in big trouble. For example, Tom Foley is probably remembered as the biggest loss here, losing with 49% of the vote. Well he got 35% in the primary. I haven't really seen anything like that with this primary.

I don't want to sound too optimistic, things could change of course. I think Herrera will win WA-3, Reichert will be comfortably re-elected in WA-8, WA-2 and the Senate race will be closer than I would like (but I still think the Democrats will win both), the Democrats will lose some state legislature seats... But I do not see anything resembling 1994 in these primary results.