NPC Elections - Rules and Results Thread

[OBD]

Would really appreciate it if people could keep the partisan discussion out of this thread - and refrain from personal attacks period -, it literally has nothing to do with game mechanics. The mechanism itself will be allowed if people wish to use it.

Writing the post-mortem now.

Aye-aye, capt'n!

[Lumine]

Post-mortem up. I wanted to be far more specific, but there was a lot to be said and some details had to be kept up. Results aside, gentlemen, all main four parties contesting did a good job and have greatly improved since July - the new campaigners also did very well -, so my congratulations on that.

The October cycle will start on October 5th.

[Former President tack50]

Re: Debates, while I am not opposed to debates for the NPC elections; I'd rather keep those for the "real/player driven" elections.

So I would much rather see say, a Presidential debate (MB vs Ninja), a Senate debate or even a House debate of some sort (probably Cao vs Beeman vs Sev) instead of an NPC elections debate.

I'd even be fine with a general "state of Atlasia" or generic Congress debate that just has say, the party chairmen or Congressonal leaders debating; but I'd rather have it centered on the player driven elections than the NPC ones.

[West_Midlander]

I think policy townhalls on specific issues (like one for each broad issue) where each party leader or other representative for the party sits down with the moderator and gets asked questions about their and their party's stances would be a good idea. A pure debate, however, doesn't make a ton of sense since the NPC elections don't represent a single election. Even if this [a town hall] takes place once every other NPC cycle (or more or less often w/e), I think that would be cool.

Also, I think the ability to sit down with impartial interviewers for interviews could count for NPC "points." Ideally, they would be "local" or national news interviews and would be carried out by a neutral figure and would be modeled after the Lumine interviews from earlier this year and before that. (Of course, someone else (one or more people) would have to step up as interviewers because Lumine is GM now, so has his hands plenty full, I gather).

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Another thing we need to consider is if monthly debates are something people intend on sticking to, because in all honesty I can see this playing out for maybe two, three elections at most and then it all falls apart. We don't have nearly enough people with the time and interest to conduct NPC campaigns, player campaigns, officeholding, and just about everything else. I had similar doubts about the ACLU and gun rights groups last year, and those lasted for about a month before everyone forgot about them and moved on.

We're already very fortunate to have a GM who is not only conducting these elections, but volunteered to do so himself and commit to it. We created the Office of the Comptroller General specifically to limit the workload of the GM.

[Lumine]

Also, I think the ability to sit down with impartial interviewers for interviews could count for NPC "points." Ideally, they would be "local" or national news interviews and would be carried out by a neutral figure and would be modeled after the Lumine interviews from earlier this year and before that. (Of course, someone else (one or more people) would have to step up as interviewers because Lumine is GM now, so has his hands plenty full, I gather).

I have to confess I rather like this idea, and would rather enjoy media dynamics having more of an impact on the whole process. Certainly wouldn't mind allowing this dynamic and grading them as campaign material, but aye, you'd need more Game Engine personnel for dynamics such as this to work.

We're already very fortunate to have a GM who is not only conducting these elections, but volunteered to do so himself and commit to it. We created the Office of the Comptroller General specifically to limit the workload of the GM.

If it helps for me to give Game Engine contex, after three months I have made substantial progress with working out methods and generally ensuring that I take less time to set up and calculate stuff, and in general terms I feel I can sustain the present level of detail in terms of results (weekly polling I've found to be problematic, so while efforts will be undertaken to provide people with polling during the campaign period it will not be as consistent as I'd like in terms of schedule). That's the bright side.

The somewhat darker side is that it does drain energies that could be spent on the storyline side of things, meaning I haven't been able to move forward with a number of stories and follow-ups I'm sitting on. More likely than not I'll end up needing a deputy in the long-term future, either for extra electoral duties or - my preference - to help out writing stories and to prevent a lack of balance (not neglect world-building in favor of NPC contests).

[Continential]

Another thing we need to consider is if monthly debates are something people intend on sticking to, because in all honesty I can see this playing out for maybe two, three elections at most and then it all falls apart. We don't have nearly enough people with the time and interest to conduct NPC campaigns, player campaigns, officeholding, and just about everything else. I had similar doubts about the ACLU and gun rights groups last year, and those lasted for about a month before everyone forgot about them and moved on.

We're already very fortunate to have a GM who is not only conducting these elections, but volunteered to do so himself and commit to it. We created the Office of the Comptroller General specifically to limit the workload of the GM.

I was the guy who sort of “rebirthed” special interest groups and they felll because they had no use unlike real life ones, and the most successful one was the ACLO which died due to the strike being over.

[Poirot]

My question is about a party supporting another.

If a party decides to back another party, in one state or all states, after the first poll is out, would all of the support in the poll transfer to the designated party or would the GM decides with some factors how much support is transfered, jow muc goes to another party and maybe even some still stay pit and don't move.

Is there a difference if supporting another party happens before the first poll is out or after the poll is out.

[Lumine]

My question is about a party supporting another.

If a party decides to back another party, in one state or all states, after the first poll is out, would all of the support in the poll transfer to the designated party or would the GM decides with some factors how much support is transfered, jow muc goes to another party and maybe even some still stay pit and don't move.

Is there a difference if supporting another party happens before the first poll is out or after the poll is out.

A majority of the support would in all likelihood go to the endorsed party, but I would indeed try to factor how relative that shift is and how compatible voters might be. For example, the Law and Justice Party endorsing the Dixieland Patriot's Party would probably see a significant number of voters refusing the switch, whereas with parties that are more ideologically compatible - or somewhat friendly - the effect would obviously be amplified. I already experimented with this factoring how the Green support was being split (though that one included campaigning factors), which as people can easily discern from polling didn't go 100% towards Labor.

As to whether there's a difference before and right after the first poll no, not a meaningful one. The difference would be more substantial if a deal was closed when the campaign is nearing the end.

[Lumine]

OCTOBER 2020

CAMPAIGN PERIOD

Monday October 5th - Friday October 30th

UP FOR GRABS

Utah
Montana
Wyoming
Kentucky
Missouri
Texas
Vermont
New Jersey
Guam
San Francisco (Mayoral)

BALLOT ACCESS

NATIONAL PARTIES

1. Labor Party

Sinn Fremont (Fremont)
Beauty and Bread (Fremont)
Tricolor Party of Lincoln (Lincoln)

2. Federalist Party

3. Democratic Alliance

Atlasian Future Party (South)

4. Liberal Party

5. Peace Party

6. Green Party

7. Law and Justice Party

REGIONAL PARTIES (Unaffiliated)
None.

CAMPAIGNING OPEN ACROSS THE BOARD

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

North Dakota already voted, as an FYI.

[Lumine]

Polling

Polls are not meant to be fully accurate

Utah:

Standard Fremont System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		52%
Federalist Party		19%
Liberal Party		12%
Democratic Alliance		12%
Green Party		2%
Peace Party		2%
Law and Justice Party		1%

Wyoming:

Standard Fremont System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		53%
Federalist Party		18%
Liberal Party		12%
Democratic Alliance		10%
Law and Justice Party		3%
Green Party		2%
Peace Party		2%

Montana:

Standard Fremont System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		43%
Federalist Party		28%
Liberal Party		12%
Democratic Alliance		11%
Green Party		3%
Peace Party		2%
Law and Justice Party		1%

Guam:

Standard Fremont System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		39%
Federalist Party		21%
Liberal Party		18%
Democratic Alliance		17%
Peace Party		3%
Green Party		1%
Law and Justice Party		1%

Texas:

Standard South System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Federalist Party		42%
Labor Party		34%
Democratic Alliance/AFP		15%
Liberal Party		3%
Peace Party		3%
Law and Justice Party		2%
Green Party		1%

Missouri:

Standard South System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Federalist Party		41%
Labor Party		27%
Democratic Alliance/AFP		13%
Peace Party		12%
Liberal Party		5%
Green Party		1%
Law and Justice Party		1%

Kentucky:

Standard South System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Federalist Party		47%
Labor Party		26%
Democratic Alliance/AFP		21%
Liberal Party		2%
Peace Party		2%
Law and Justice Party		1%
Green Party		1%

Vermont:

House of Representatives elected via Mixed-member PR

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Liberal Party		28%
Federalist Party		25%
Democratic Alliance		22%
Labor Party/Tricolor		22%
Peace Party		1%
Green Party		1%
Law and Justice Party		1%

New Jersey:

General Assembly elected via FPTP

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/Tricolor		38%
Federalist Party		24%
Democratic Alliance		19%
Liberal Party		16%
Green Party		1%
Peace Party		1%
Law and Justice Party		1%

San Francisco Mayoral:

RCV System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		43%
Democratic Alliance		27%
Federalist Party		20%
Liberal Party		6%
Peace Party		2%
Green Party		1%
Law and Justice Party		1%

[Lumine]

It's been brought to my attention the Law and Justice Party is probably going to stop being a major party in the next census update, and wanted to clarify that in said eventuality the party will no longer be automatically included in the process unless remaining members decide for the party to stand.

That would leave us with only six parties automatically included, plus long term regional alliances that have been noted to last for more than a month.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Peace will compete in all of the contests in November except for gubernatorial and other executive elections in the following states:

Kentucky
New Jersey
Utah
Wyoming

In all executive contests we don't compete in, we are going to automatically endorse the Labor candidate for the office in question. Please note that we will still compete in legislative elections in all of these states except for New Jersey, where we will also be endorsing the Labor candidates.

[Lumine]

Peace will compete in all of the contests in November except for gubernatorial and other executive elections in the following states:

Kentucky
New Jersey
Utah
Wyoming

In all executive contests we don't compete in, we are going to automatically endorse the Labor candidate for the office in question. Please note that we will still compete in legislative elections in all of these states except for New Jersey, where we will also be endorsing the Labor candidates.

Duly noted. This, alongside the removal of the LJP as a party automatically "on" in terms of running for office, will be reflected at the next polling update.

I'll update polling on the 16th or the 19th, both due to a lack of time now and because campaigning has been fairly limited thus far.

[OBD]

Is a polling update coming soon? Quite a bit has gone down since then.

[Lumine]

Is a polling update coming soon? Quite a bit has gone down since then.

Coming tonight, currently grading speeches and performances.

[OBD]

Is a polling update coming soon? Quite a bit has gone down since then.

Coming tonight, currently grading speeches and performances.

Great! Thank you.

[Lumine]

Polling

Polls are not meant to be fully accurate

Utah:

Standard Fremont System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		51%
Federalist Party		19%
Liberal Party		14%
Democratic Alliance		10%
Peace Party		5%
Green Party		1%

Wyoming:

Standard Fremont System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		55%
Federalist Party		19%
Liberal Party		14%
Democratic Alliance		9%
Peace Party		2%
Green Party		1%

Montana:

Standard Fremont System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		40%
Federalist Party		27%
Liberal Party		14%
Democratic Alliance		11%
Peace Party		6%
Green Party		2%

Guam:

Standard Fremont System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		35%
Liberal Party		23%
Federalist Party		20%
Democratic Alliance		15%
Peace Party		6%
Green Party		1%

Texas:

Standard South System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Federalist Party		46%
Labor Party		37%
Democratic Alliance/AFP		11%
Peace Party		4%
Liberal Party		2%
Green Party		0%

Missouri:

Standard South System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Federalist Party		43%
Peace Party		21%
Labor Party		20%
Democratic Alliance/AFP		10%
Liberal Party		6%
Green Party		0%

Kentucky:

Standard South System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Federalist Party		49%
Labor Party		22%
Democratic Alliance/AFP		22%
Peace Party		5%
Liberal Party		2%
Green Party		0%

Vermont:

House of Representatives elected via Mixed-member PR

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Liberal Party		32%
Federalist Party		29%
Democratic Alliance		18%
Labor Party/Tricolor		17%
Peace Party		4%
Green Party		0%

New Jersey:

General Assembly elected via FPTP

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/Tricolor		38%
Federalist Party		25%
Democratic Alliance		20%
Liberal Party		17%
Green Party		0%

San Francisco Mayoral:

RCV System

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)
Labor Party/SF/B&B		41%
Democratic Alliance		24%
Federalist Party		18%
Liberal Party		9%
Peace Party		7%
Green Party		1%

[OBD]

Thank you Lumine for the polls (a little disappointing, but still good to know)! On a somewhat related note, I made county maps for the NPC elections thus far. These obviously aren't canonical, but I think they're pretty cool and a (relatively) accurate representation of what went down. I have the July and August elections thus far (EDIT: Now fully updated!)



Please don't hesitate if you have any questions about my (statistically questionable) methodology. Generally, I took recent election results and adjusted them to both match the raw NPC numbers and better represent the different coalitions in Atlasia.

[S019]

Thank you Lumine for the polls (a little disappointing, but still good to know)! On a somewhat related note, I made county maps for the NPC elections thus far. These obviously aren't canonical, but I think they're pretty cool and a (relatively) accurate representation of what went down. I have the July and August elections thus far (EDIT: Now fully updated!)



Please don't hesitate if you have any questions about my (statistically questionable) methodology. Generally, I took recent election results and adjusted them to both match the raw NPC numbers and better represent the different coalitions in Atlasia.

So, some quibbles with this map, first of all Southern whites still exist ITTL, so those Appalachia numbers are very unrealistic, especially since you have more cosmopolitan areas leaning conservative, even though those cosmopolitan areas have become more diverse and many of the whites there have college degrees. This is not a demographic open to right wing politics, especially not with the unique influence of social issues in politics here compared to the rest of the west. Even looking at economics, Missouri's rural areas voted against a Medicaid Expansion measure in this year's primary (same thing happened in OK, too), so rural areas aren't full of closet populists. Even with the usual caveats of this isn't IRL, these areas are simply gone even for left-wing economic policy. Even if you given them left-wing economic policy with right wing social policy, they won't bite when given the all conservative alternative. Even back when economics were more important, (1968 is honestly the last time that I think economics took prevalence over social, (maybe 1980, but that was also part foreign policy)), social issues were important to the South, especially on issues of segregation. Roe was probably another part of this shift as it kickstarted the evangelical right. They were of course met with opposition from northern liberals, the fact that recently our own Supreme Court was deeply divided and basically handed down a ruling equivalent to Casey, when they could have gone much further in either direction honestly, is a sign of this social polarization. Also if upstate NY flips no way, Westchester doesn't. It isn't just rich whites (which is the stereotype), places like Mount Vernon have a sizable African American vote (there's a reason why Engel lost Westchester in the IRL primary). Also again with Wisconsin, Milwaukee is at least 40% African American, it is flipping if Driftless flips. And one last note with New York, Rochester is not voting for a right wing party, full stop

I like the idea of having a map, but I think it could use some work, and this comment isn't just to you, it's a general comment towards everyone, especially since some people (you know who you are) have been fighting with me recently over this type of characterization of regional politics.

[Lumine]

Thank you Lumine for the polls (a little disappointing, but still good to know)! On a somewhat related note, I made county maps for the NPC elections thus far. These obviously aren't canonical, but I think they're pretty cool and a (relatively) accurate representation of what went down. I have the July and August elections thus far (EDIT: Now fully updated!)

Excellent work! I greatly appreciate this type of effort and although my knowledge of US counties is very limited, from what I can ascertain there's some inspired guesses or general choices I'd agree with.

On a general sense, I would say that the overwhelming bulk of electoral factors in these NPC elections are all Atlasia-based (particularly in terms of previous results and current registration), and even though I make an effort to consider at least a few RL factors (and to take into account when players make clever attempts to work with those factors in campaigning), drawing direct parallels with the RL United States is probably going to be misleading given how different Atlasia is in the end.

Maybe it will be different if the whole NPC system both continues and survives into a GM successor with far more detailed US electoral knowledge than I (assuming, of course, he or she isn't horrified by my current methodology).

[OBD]

Thank you Lumine for the polls (a little disappointing, but still good to know)! On a somewhat related note, I made county maps for the NPC elections thus far. These obviously aren't canonical, but I think they're pretty cool and a (relatively) accurate representation of what went down. I have the July and August elections thus far (EDIT: Now fully updated!)

Please don't hesitate if you have any questions about my (statistically questionable) methodology. Generally, I took recent election results and adjusted them to both match the raw NPC numbers and better represent the different coalitions in Atlasia.

So, some quibbles with this map, first of all Southern whites still exist ITTL, so those Appalachia numbers are very unrealistic, especially since you have more cosmopolitan areas leaning conservative, even though those cosmopolitan areas have become more diverse and many of the whites there have college degrees. This is not a demographic open to right wing politics, especially not with the unique influence of social issues in politics here compared to the rest of the west. Even looking at economics, Missouri's rural areas voted against a Medicaid Expansion measure in this year's primary (same thing happened in OK, too), so rural areas aren't full of closet populists. Even with the usual caveats of this isn't IRL, these areas are simply gone even for left-wing economic policy. Even if you given them left-wing economic policy with right wing social policy, they won't bite when given the all conservative alternative. Even back when economics were more important, (1968 is honestly the last time that I think economics took prevalence over social, (maybe 1980, but that was also part foreign policy)), social issues were important to the South, especially on issues of segregation. Roe was probably another part of this shift as it kickstarted the evangelical right. They were of course met with opposition from northern liberals, the fact that recently our own Supreme Court was deeply divided and basically handed down a ruling equivalent to Casey, when they could have gone much further in either direction honestly, is a sign of this social polarization. Also if upstate NY flips no way, Westchester doesn't. It isn't just rich whites (which is the stereotype), places like Mount Vernon have a sizable African American vote (there's a reason why Engel lost Westchester in the IRL primary). Also again with Wisconsin, Milwaukee is at least 40% African American, it is flipping if Driftless flips. And one last note with New York, Rochester is not voting for a right wing party, full stop

I like the idea of having a map, but I think it could use some work, and this comment isn't just to you, it's a general comment towards everyone, especially since some people (you know who you are) have been fighting with me recently over this type of characterization of regional politics.

Okay, if Atlasia was actually as you said, we'd essentially have the Democratic-Republican coalition, and there'd be no way North Dakota'd be Harry S. Truman's personal North Korea while New York (state AND city!) vote for Federalist governance. A Labor strong in rurals and Federalists/DA strong in the suburbs is necessary for the coalitions to work out, and makes sense considering statewide results and the differences between these parties and OTL ones.

First off, while the point that Labor is more populist has already been belabored, the Federalists are also far more palatable to suburbs than Republicans. It's a near certainty that the #NeverTrump Lincoln Project voters are solid Federalist or DA voters in this timeline, and combined with Labor's more populist bent they would thus overperform in suburbs relative to OTL. Lastly, recall that nearly every county has a plurality result, so Labor could be winning West Virginia counties with around 35-40% of the vote, and considering many of said counties voted Manchin in 2018 it's not outrageous in the slightest.

I think individual county results can be debated, but I'm generally pretty confident in the general patterns of my map.

Thank you Lumine for the polls (a little disappointing, but still good to know)! On a somewhat related note, I made county maps for the NPC elections thus far. These obviously aren't canonical, but I think they're pretty cool and a (relatively) accurate representation of what went down. I have the July and August elections thus far (EDIT: Now fully updated!)

Excellent work! I greatly appreciate this type of effort and although my knowledge of US counties is very limited, from what I can ascertain there's some inspired guesses or general choices I'd agree with.

On a general sense, I would say that the overwhelming bulk of electoral factors in these NPC elections are all Atlasia-based (particularly in terms of previous results and current registration), and even though I make an effort to consider at least a few RL factors (and to take into account when players make clever attempts to work with those factors in campaigning), drawing direct parallels with the RL United States is probably going to be misleading given how different Atlasia is in the end.

Maybe it will be different if the whole NPC system both continues and survives into a GM successor with far more detailed US electoral knowledge than I (assuming, of course, he or she isn't horrified by my current methodology).

Thanks! IMO your system's working completely fine - Atlasian politics relative to IRL ones seem to have always been wonky, and no fair NPC system could change that lol

[Lumine]

Campaigning is set to end on Friday, there will be a polling update late on late Monday/early Tuesday. Would have been ideal to do one this week, but a family member is terminally ill and I'm understandably rather bereft of motivation.

Sort of a follow up to this earlier issue, my grandmother passed away last night, so I'm taking a preemptive leave of absence as I won't have a lot of mental energy. Results on the October set will be calculated and posted at some point, but it most likely won't be on Saturday this time (depending on how things are going). In any case, another set of remarkable performances (campaigning ends tomorrow), good work!

[OBD]

Campaigning is set to end on Friday, there will be a polling update late on late Monday/early Tuesday. Would have been ideal to do one this week, but a family member is terminally ill and I'm understandably rather bereft of motivation.

Sort of a follow up to this earlier issue, my grandmother passed away last night, so I'm taking a preemptive leave of absence as I won't have a lot of mental energy. Results on the October set will be calculated and posted at some point, but it most likely won't be on Saturday this time (depending on how things are going). In any case, another set of remarkable performances (campaigning ends tomorrow), good work!

Damn, my condolences. Take as much time as you need!