🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[jaichind]

Election day has arrived.

In Portugal alone, more than 9,299,000 voters are registered to vote. There will be almost 14,000 polling stations across the country that will open at 8am (3am EST) and close at 7pm (2pm EST). Polls in Azores will close one hour later due to time difference. People isolated or infected with Covid are allowed to vote and for these voters, it's recommended to vote in the last hour of voting, between 6pm and 7pm, but there will be no control.

At 8pm, TV networks will release exit polls.

The official results website: https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

Thanks.  Any link exit polls to be expected? Any live streams where one can see the exit polls at 2PM EST ?

[jaichind]

RTP exit poll has PS at 37-42 and PSD at 30-35.  Clear PS win.

[jaichind]

It seems the RTP exit poll does not cover the VBM.

[jaichind]

Both CHEGA and IL seem to have grown quite a bit relative to 2019.

[jaichind]

I really like the results site which compares current results to 2019 results IN THE voting areas that has been counted.  Just awesome

[jaichind]

I really like the results site which compares current results to 2019 results IN THE voting areas that has been counted.  Just awesome

Can you link it?

It was posted earlier

https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/resultados/globais

You have to click on "compare to 2019"

[jaichind]

So far no foreign vote. Do they usually lean Right or lean Left?

[jaichind]

So far PS is on track to be a bit above 41 and PSD on track to be around 27.5.  Surprisingly large gap. CHEGA and IL doing well must be part of the reason.

[jaichind]

Results from most rural areas are in. Clear cannibalization of the BE and CDU vote by PS.
53,98% reported
PS 43,27% (+5,12)
PSD 31,61% (-0,40)
CH 7,49% (+6,47)
BE 3,13% (-4,42)
CDU 3,67% (-1,44)
IL 2,52% (+2,02)
CDS 1,89% (-2,88)

For the PSD, you can add the PSD/CDS coalitions in Azores and Madeira.

Ah, did not notice them.  OK the PSD position is not as bad as I thought but still pretty bad.

[jaichind]

It seems the Right-wing vote went up significantly but could not stop as likely PS majority.

[jaichind]

Blank and null votes are also down which is symbolic of the polorization.

[jaichind]

PS needs about 43-44% of uncalled seats for a majority

The large number of seats in Lisboa is going to work against them as the threshold to get seats there will be low (something like 2%)

[jaichind]

The % of remaining uncalled seats needed for PS to win a majority has continued to drop, now just about 39%.

But a good part of the uncalled seats are in Lisboa and Porto where PS is unlikely to get a majority of the remaining seats.

[jaichind]

By my count, PS will get 13 more seats from Lisboa and 5 more from Porto on top of the 95 already called for them.  Yeah, that puts them at 113 already so I guess PS majority is going to take place since there are more seats for them to win from the various other places

[jaichind]

Will the various Left-wing parties learn a lesson from this and form electoral pacts next election?