🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How bad does the PSD performance have to be for Rio to lose the leadership?

I think if it's not very very close, he has to go.

Do you mean "very very close" between the two parties, or between the two blocs? I expect you mean the former, but I want to be sure.

[Mike88]

How bad does the PSD performance have to be for Rio to lose the leadership?

I think if it's not very very close, he has to go.

Yeah, it's over for him.

[Mike88]

Praying for a PS majority. Costa deserves it.

If gets a majority, he will have to face a lot of things and he will not have scapegoats.

[Flyersfan232]

Looking at the results so far, a PS majority may not be that impossible. With the results so far, I'm saying the PS could end up at around 41% and the PSD at 28%.

how often are exit polls wrong or right?

[Niemeyerite]

How bad does the PSD performance have to be for Rio to lose the leadership?

I think if it's not very very close, he has to go.

Do you mean "very very close" between the two parties, or between the two blocs? I expect you mean the former, but I want to be sure.

I meant parties. But he's out for sure after this.

[jaichind]

So far no foreign vote. Do they usually lean Right or lean Left?

[jaichind]

So far PS is on track to be a bit above 41 and PSD on track to be around 27.5.  Surprisingly large gap. CHEGA and IL doing well must be part of the reason.

[Logical]

Results from most rural areas are in. Clear cannibalization of the BE and CDU vote by PS.
53,98% reported
PS 43,27% (+5,12)
PSD 31,61% (-0,40)
CH 7,49% (+6,47)
BE 3,13% (-4,42)
CDU 3,67% (-1,44)
IL 2,52% (+2,02)
CDS 1,89% (-2,88)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Huh, the exit polls are pretty good for Costa. And the early returns are even better. It really seems that his repeated claims that it was only a choice between him and Rio have been pretty successful in polarizing the electorate and doing so in the PS's favour. CHEGA may well be the only minor party to cross 5% which is pretty stunning.

Now I mostly wonder if Costa will get his absolute majority he was asking so loud for.

[Logical]

So far no foreign vote. Do they usually lean Right or lean Left?

European expats lean left while the rest lean right. Doesn’t matter though as PS and PSD will divide the expat seats equally 2 each.

[Mike88]

Results from most rural areas are in. Clear cannibalization of the BE and CDU vote by PS.
53,98% reported
PS 43,27% (+5,12)
PSD 31,61% (-0,40)
CH 7,49% (+6,47)
BE 3,13% (-4,42)
CDU 3,67% (-1,44)
IL 2,52% (+2,02)
CDS 1,89% (-2,88)

For the PSD, you can add the PSD/CDS coalitions in Azores and Madeira.

[jaichind]

Results from most rural areas are in. Clear cannibalization of the BE and CDU vote by PS.
53,98% reported
PS 43,27% (+5,12)
PSD 31,61% (-0,40)
CH 7,49% (+6,47)
BE 3,13% (-4,42)
CDU 3,67% (-1,44)
IL 2,52% (+2,02)
CDS 1,89% (-2,88)

For the PSD, you can add the PSD/CDS coalitions in Azores and Madeira.

Ah, did not notice them.  OK the PSD position is not as bad as I thought but still pretty bad.

[Flyersfan232]

Huh, the exit polls are pretty good for Costa. And the early returns are even better. It really seems that his repeated claims that it was only a choice between him and Rio have been pretty successful in polarizing the electorate and doing so in the PS's favour. CHEGA may well be the only minor party to cross 5% which is pretty stunning.

Now I mostly wonder if Costa will get his absolute majority he was asking so loud for.

could he be ps choice for there retirement job of president?

[jaichind]

It seems the Right-wing vote went up significantly but could not stop as likely PS majority.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So far no foreign vote. Do they usually lean Right or lean Left?

European expats lean left while the rest lean right. Doesn’t matter though as PS and PSD will divide the expat seats equally 2 each.

Admittedly the expat vote outside of Europe is so overwhelmingly right-leaning that PSD/PàF got both of its seats as recently as 2015 (and all previous elections going back up to the Guterres era it seems?). But of course this time the party is much, much weaker so that's not remotely in the cards.

[Mike88]

Huh, the exit polls are pretty good for Costa. And the early returns are even better. It really seems that his repeated claims that it was only a choice between him and Rio have been pretty successful in polarizing the electorate and doing so in the PS's favour. CHEGA may well be the only minor party to cross 5% which is pretty stunning.

Now I mostly wonder if Costa will get his absolute majority he was asking so loud for.

could he be ps choice for there retirement job of president?

It depends of how popular he will be by then. Soares did that in 1986 after 2 years as PM with an IMF bailout and was able to win by a 51-49% margin. Cavaco Silva, after 10 years as PM, 8 with a majority, did the same in 1996 and lost to Jorge Sampaio, 46-54%.

[Mike88]

It seems the Right-wing vote went up significantly but could not stop as likely PS majority.

Yep, as of right now, but it's still early, the total right is at 44.6%. But, they will probably fall as more urban vote is counted.

[Farmlands]

It seems the Right-wing vote went up significantly but could not stop as likely PS majority.

The problem for them, but mostly the PSD, is that the D'Hondt system rewards the kind of left-wing unification behind the PS that seems to have taken place, while not favoring a fragmentation of the vote between the right parties.

[Walmart_shopper]

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.

[Logical]

CDU will not win a seat in Évora for the first time ever. They’ve held at least 1 seat there since the first free elections in 1976.

[Mike88]

Counting so far:

42.4% PS, 19 seats
32.3% PSD, 13
  7.6% CHEGA
  3.7% CDU
  3.6% BE
  3.1% IL
  1.8% CDS
  1.0% PAN
  0.7% Livre

[Mike88]

CDU will not win a seat in Évora for the first time ever.. They’ve won at least 1 seat there since the first free elections in 1976.

Everything points to that, and in Beja, CDU will probably hold their seat by just a hair.

[Mike88]

PSD is set to lose Viseu district. Only Santana Lopes lost it in 2005.

[Rikschard]

PSD is set to lose Viseu district. Only Santana Lopes lost it in 2005.

And Bragança is oh so close.

[Mike88]

PSD is set to lose Viseu district. Only Santana Lopes lost it in 2005.

And Bragança is oh so close.

So, so close. Vila Real is also neck and neck.