Scandal in the Wind 2023. George Santos gets Sashayed

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1613280368635039744

This makes Gabriano the only Long Island congressman sticking with Santos, for now

He won't be forced to resign and he will play the good boy to avoid trouble.

And the GOP needs his vote in the House given the tiny majority, they can't risk a special election or even a period of vacancy.

He will probably stay for the full 2 years, but not run again.

[oldtimer]

From a political standpoint, you'd think Republican's would rather risk a low turnout special and potentially get a half decent incumbent as opposed to a high turnout presidential year where democrats have a good chance of taking the seat back against a no name. Unless they think it's a one term rental and would rather maximize what little time they have left here.

Republicans don't have a chance in any special election, they are all D+10 shifts.

It's only 12 months till the normal election anyway.

[oldtimer]

So the motion was defeated 179-213.

[oldtimer]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

[oldtimer]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

They can't tie anyone to Santos no matter what they do.

He's on his own tier.

[oldtimer]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

There's also the hope (cope?) that if you burn the guarantied loss in a special, you can go into the GE on equal footing. That might potentially allow for the GOP to regain the seat, if the national environment sees them retain some percentage of the 2022 numbers in Long Island. The main reasons why that's cope in my opinion are that its going to be Suozzi selected for the special (and become the incumbent) by local Dems, and a potential remap is likely to at least double the present Dem lean of the seat, just by removing southeast dense GOP Nassau towns and replacing them with more D friendly areas.

Do Republicans have a chance at holding the seat in the special?

They would lose by 20 any special election no matter the candidates.

Republicans are vulnerable in any special election almost anywhere in America at present.

[oldtimer]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

[oldtimer]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

The average overperformance of Democrats is 10 points, that gives them even odds they win it by 18.

It's why Democrats wanted to get rid of Santos with a Special Election.

[oldtimer]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

The average overperformance of Democrats is 10 points, that gives them even odds they win it by 18.

It's why Democrats wanted to get rid of Santos with a Special Election.

Democratic overperformance is not universal. Pretty much without exception, Nassau (and Suffolk) Democrats have done horribly since Biden took office.

This will be an obscure special on a random Tuesday, not a presidential or even midterm electorate.

By New York standards turnout will probably be lower than 20%.

[oldtimer]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

The average overperformance of Democrats is 10 points, that gives them even odds they win it by 18.

It's why Democrats wanted to get rid of Santos with a Special Election.

Democratic overperformance is not universal. Pretty much without exception, Nassau (and Suffolk) Democrats have done horribly since Biden took office.

This will be an obscure special on a random Tuesday, not a presidential or even midterm electorate.

It won't be "obscure". In fact, it will almost certainly get a lot of media coverage. As far as turnout goes, 2021 and 2023 had just county and municipal offices on the ballot. There were no statewide, legislative or congressional races on the ballot and there were no major initiative or referendum in either year. The turnout in this race will at least match, and probably exceed, that in the odd years.

Ok which day is the special ? Don't cheat by searching it on the internet.