Scandal in the Wind 2023. George Santos gets Sashayed

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1728238454147019139

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joshua_eaton/status/1728248201067831757

I can see it now: Santos vs MTG.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/joshua_eaton/status/1728248201067831757

This is Santos, so I would not be surprised if he meant the Country Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joshua_eaton/status/1728248201067831757

This is Santos, so I would not be surprised if he meant the Country Georgia.

I think you’ve got it. I just looked it up, and Georgia doesn’t have an extradition treaty with the US.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/joshua_eaton/status/1728248201067831757

This is Santos, so I would not be surprised if he meant the Country Georgia.

What are his views on Abkhazia? Because that's the nothern most part of Georgia.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1728432367671325174

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder if they were also waiting for Maloy to win so that she’d essentially replace Santos rather than further shrinking their majority.

[oldtimer]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wonder if they were also waiting for Maloy to win so that she’d essentially replace Santos rather than further shrinking their majority.

That would still be a net loss no matter what though.

[Roll Roons]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

[Oryxslayer]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

There's also the hope (cope?) that if you burn the guarantied loss in a special, you can go into the GE on equal footing. That might potentially allow for the GOP to regain the seat, if the national environment sees them retain some percentage of the 2022 numbers in Long Island. The main reasons why that's cope in my opinion are that its going to be Suozzi selected for the special (and become the incumbent) by local Dems, and a potential remap is likely to at least double the present Dem lean of the seat, just by removing southeast dense GOP Nassau towns and replacing them with more D friendly areas.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

There's also the hope (cope?) that if you burn the guarantied loss in a special, you can go into the GE on equal footing. That might potentially allow for the GOP to regain the seat, if the national environment sees them retain some percentage of the 2022 numbers in Long Island. The main reasons why that's cope in my opinion are that its going to be Suozzi selected for the special (and become the incumbent) by local Dems, and a potential remap is likely to at least double the present Dem lean of the seat, just by removing southeast dense GOP Nassau towns and replacing them with more D friendly areas.

Do Republicans have a chance at holding the seat in the special?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

There's also the hope (cope?) that if you burn the guarantied loss in a special, you can go into the GE on equal footing. That might potentially allow for the GOP to regain the seat, if the national environment sees them retain some percentage of the 2022 numbers in Long Island. The main reasons why that's cope in my opinion are that its going to be Suozzi selected for the special (and become the incumbent) by local Dems, and a potential remap is likely to at least double the present Dem lean of the seat, just by removing southeast dense GOP Nassau towns and replacing them with more D friendly areas.

Do Republicans have a chance at holding the seat in the special?

A chance, yes.  A likelihood?  Probably not, but it depends on who the nominees are.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

There's also the hope (cope?) that if you burn the guarantied loss in a special, you can go into the GE on equal footing. That might potentially allow for the GOP to regain the seat, if the national environment sees them retain some percentage of the 2022 numbers in Long Island. The main reasons why that's cope in my opinion are that its going to be Suozzi selected for the special (and become the incumbent) by local Dems, and a potential remap is likely to at least double the present Dem lean of the seat, just by removing southeast dense GOP Nassau towns and replacing them with more D friendly areas.

Do Republicans have a chance at holding the seat in the special?

A chance, yes.  A likelihood?  Probably not, but it depends on who the nominees are.

Suozzi’s entrance and the increasing likelihood of a redraw may have been the writing on the wall for R’s in this seat, and that it’s not worth squeezing out one more year of this seat.

If Republicans run a nobody Suozzi is probably favored. It they’re putting up someone like Jack Martins all bets are off.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Santos will (likely) be the first member of congress to be expelled since 2002, the sixth overall, and the first Republican.

[Tekken_Guy]

Santos will (likely) be the first member of congress to be expelled since 2002, the sixth overall, and the first Republican.

Is these a chance Santos survives his expulsion vote?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Santos will (likely) be the first member of congress to be expelled since 2002, the sixth overall, and the first Republican.

Is these a chance Santos survives his expulsion vote?

Sure, a very small one. He himself expects it to go through, so I don't think he has much of a fighting chance at this point.

[Tekken_Guy]

Santos will (likely) be the first member of congress to be expelled since 2002, the sixth overall, and the first Republican.

Is these a chance Santos survives his expulsion vote?

Sure, a very small one. He himself expects it to go through, so I don't think he has much of a fighting chance at this point.

How many votes do you think will there be for expulsion?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Santos will (likely) be the first member of congress to be expelled since 2002, the sixth overall, and the first Republican.

Is these a chance Santos survives his expulsion vote?

Sure, a very small one. He himself expects it to go through, so I don't think he has much of a fighting chance at this point.

How many votes do you think will there be for expulsion?

I'm guessing between 300 and 350 (all the Democrats and roughly half the Republicans).

[oldtimer]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

They can't tie anyone to Santos no matter what they do.

He's on his own tier.

[oldtimer]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

There's also the hope (cope?) that if you burn the guarantied loss in a special, you can go into the GE on equal footing. That might potentially allow for the GOP to regain the seat, if the national environment sees them retain some percentage of the 2022 numbers in Long Island. The main reasons why that's cope in my opinion are that its going to be Suozzi selected for the special (and become the incumbent) by local Dems, and a potential remap is likely to at least double the present Dem lean of the seat, just by removing southeast dense GOP Nassau towns and replacing them with more D friendly areas.

Do Republicans have a chance at holding the seat in the special?

They would lose by 20 any special election no matter the candidates.

Republicans are vulnerable in any special election almost anywhere in America at present.

[Yoda]

How soon would a special election be held if, as expected, he is expelled?

[Smash255]

How soon would a special election be held if, as expected, he is expelled?

General rule in NY is that a Special Election for a seat in Congress must be called by the Governor within 10 days of the vacancy (provided vacancy occurs prior to July 1 of an election year) and would be held from 70-90 days from the time it is called.  This would likely put in somewhere in Feb to early March.  With that said, it could potentially be moved to coincide with other elections

[Sir Mohamed]

My general expectations of the GOP are so low that I'm truly surprised it very much looks like the conman will be expelled.

[Oryxslayer]

Johnson today seemed to imply that there would be a forthcoming resignation which would moot the need for a expulsion vote. I'd believe that when I see it, cause this is Santos whose been head-in-the-sand all year.