ME: Independents Gaining Traction

[TheSaint250]

Maine's independent state treasurer announced today that she would run for governor.

[TheSaint250]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

Would Maine's 2nd be pretty secure without Poliquin?  If so, then you are very right.

[TheSaint250]

Manu Raju‏ @mkraju
Collins, considering a run for gov, tells me she's NOT leaning toward it but will make a decision in summer/fall.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/858866555391799296

I felt like that was expected.  Never really thought she would go for it

(still optimistic, though)

[TheSaint250]

The "Centrist Project" endorses Terry Hayes, and announces a partnership with the Eliot Cutler driven group Maine Independents.

http://www.centristproject.org/mainerelease?utm_campaign=maineannounce&utm_medium=email&utm_source=centristproject

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I kinda hope she wins, just for the sake of having another high-level centrist independent. Even though I'm a Republican, I've admired the centrist independent movement.

[TheSaint250]

How much of a chance does Terry Hayes have to win?

[TheSaint250]

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

[TheSaint250]

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

Those people are persona non grata in the national Republican Party and represent blue states. Don't be intellectually dishonest.

Whatever you say.

If they're unwelcome, then I assume they will all be primaried next year?

The Republican Party will become more of a big tent once again. It will happen. They are starts in that direction.

[TheSaint250]

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

Those people are persona non grata in the national Republican Party and represent blue states. Don't be intellectually dishonest.

Whatever you say.

If they're unwelcome, then I assume they will all be primaried next year?

The Republican Party will become more of a big tent once again. It will happen. They are starts in that direction.

Are you seriously suggesting that any of those people would have a shot at breaking even 1% in a national primary?

And no, the GOP isn't going to become a FISCULLY CONSURVATIVE SOSHULLY LIBRUHL party anytime soon - why would they? Cultural warfare is all they have; who would vote for a culturally libertine (not the right word but I'm going to use it anyway) party that advocates for things like Trumpcare and the tax bill?

Of course they couldn't. Not now. But once this "culture war" stuff dies down, the party will be reformed for the better.

It'll change soon.

[TheSaint250]

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

Those people are persona non grata in the national Republican Party and represent blue states. Don't be intellectually dishonest.

Whatever you say.

If they're unwelcome, then I assume they will all be primaried next year?

The Republican Party will become more of a big tent once again. It will happen. They are starts in that direction.

I'm pretty sure Charlie Baker is going to get a primary challenge. it won't be successful, but it will happen.

also lol. Massachusetts and Vermont are historically republican states where the GOP occasionally win over old moderates who usually vote Dem otherwise. Baker has no ability to build up the GOP in Massachusetts, let alone in the nation, and the Vermont GOP has zero influence on even their next door neighbors, the crackpot New Hampshire GOP.

In Maryland, sometimes people just get cranky about taxes and vote Republican for Governor. Larry Hogan is not new - his dad was a congressman, and Larry had been running for years, either through actual political campaigns or through anti-tax groups. Larry Hogan is also not particularly moderate. And either way, he's not exactly building the Maryland GOP either, rather running on his own as a monolith.

also, dude, I was a FISCONSOCLIB a while ago, I was waiting for the GOP to change in my direction but honestly there's no audience for it. The way the GOP wins is through culture war. that's about as simple as it gets.

Yeah, of course they're not popular nationwide with the party, but they are integral parts of the party.

Also, I'll still wait and see. I'm not gonna give up on a party just because the leaders are idiots, even if I don't vote for the party occasionally (most likely for President in 2020). That might sound naïve, but so be it.

[TheSaint250]

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

Those people are persona non grata in the national Republican Party and represent blue states. Don't be intellectually dishonest.

Whatever you say.

If they're unwelcome, then I assume they will all be primaried next year?

The Republican Party will become more of a big tent once again. It will happen. They are starts in that direction.

Are you seriously suggesting that any of those people would have a shot at breaking even 1% in a national primary?

And no, the GOP isn't going to become a FISCULLY CONSURVATIVE SOSHULLY LIBRUHL party anytime soon - why would they? Cultural warfare is all they have; who would vote for a culturally libertine (not the right word but I'm going to use it anyway) party that advocates for things like Trumpcare and the tax bill?

Of course they couldn't. Not now. But once this "culture war" stuff dies down, the party will be reformed for the better.

It'll change soon.

They're literally no evidence to suggest that this is the case - as social media becomes even more ingrained in American (and global) life, people become even more and more trapped in their bubble of information. The "culture war" isn't a fad or whatever (it's been the cornerstone of American reactionary politics since it's conception, needless to say), and it's only going to intensify from here.

Who knows? More Republicans seem to be trending away from being completely pro-life and trending towards being in favor of SSM, as well as some form of amnesty.

[TheSaint250]

Not that you can quantify whatever the hell "integral parts of the party" mean, but come on. Anyway, I still want an explanation as to how FISCONSOCLIB is a likely (or even viable) path for the Republican Party moving forward.

As the voters move left on social issues, so will the party to survive.

Again, Trump is not an aberration; he's the logical conclusion of decades of pandering to George Wallace voters. The right-wing demagoguery and welfare chauvinism of Trump isn't an anomaly or exclusive to him - he's just the latest manifestation of it.

lol

Edit: Republicans are becoming more friendly to amnesty? Are you serious?

http://thehill.com/latino/351901-poll-two-thirds-of-republicans-back-citizenship-for-daca-recipients

http://thehill.com/homenews/news/274575-poll-majority-of-republicans-support-path-to-citizenship

[TheSaint250]

Nice response. You got me there

[TheSaint250]

So, as jfern mentioned in the USGD board, the Maine Green Independent Party now has its second state representative: Henry John Bear (I already updated the Wikipedia page ).

[TheSaint250]

Does Hayes have a chance at making as much of an impact as Cutler in 2010?

[TheSaint250]

I think Democrats flip this because of the weak GOP bench, but would a Republican hold here really be THAT surprising? Not sure why someone would believe that this is a lost cause for Republicans and yet consider CT, RI and NH winnable for the GOP?

Because LePage.

It remains to be seen how well Terry Hayes does, though. If she is getting a large amount of support, the Republicans have a good chance (while I assume she'll get bipartisan support, she'll probably win over more Democrats unless something else happens). If RCV were in, the Democrats would be good to go here, but that's not the case.

[TheSaint250]

But doesn’t Hayes float around the center?

If so, would left-wingers just vote for her as just a protest like a Bernie —> Gary thing?

[TheSaint250]

This certainly was good to see, though. It'll give statewide officials time to work out the issues and develop a more efficient way of counting. Hopefully more states come to adopt the system.

Follow-up: While IRV will not be used for federal elections, will it be used for the gubernatorial election?

[TheSaint250]

Is RCV prohibited in all state-based elections or just the statewide ones (minus the federal elections)?

[TheSaint250]

Is RCV prohibited in all state-based elections or just the statewide ones (minus the federal elections)?

All state elections. State Senate, State House, Judge of Probate, District Attorney, Sheriff

Ok thank you!

[TheSaint250]

Mills might lose.

Well, yeah. Everyone might lose. It’s a toss-up race right now.

Is Hayes even going to be a big factor this time around? The lack of RCV will most likely hurt her, as I would assume likely Hayes voters would lean towards the Democrat here and will vote for Mills now.

Then again, the last time that only two candidates got more than 5% was 1970.

EDIT: Wow, I just put together that 2018 Republican nominee Shawn Moody was 2010 independent candidate Shawn Moody. What kind of campaign was he running then?

[TheSaint250]

Candidates to get public campaign funds as LePage releases $1.4 million under court order

This should help Terry Hayes in her campaign.

[TheSaint250]

Moody needs only a plurality of the vote and since Hayes is doing this, I can see an upset 40 Hayes-19 Moody and Mills

Won't happen, no name recognition and no natural base (she's not running to the left of Mills on social issues like Cutler did to Michaud and Mitchell on gun control and same-sex marriage, for example).

Just curious, which way did Cutler tack on economics, and which way is Hayes tacking now?

[TheSaint250]

As time goes on, I become more and more convinced that this campaign broke Terry Hayes’s brain



She’s the treasurer for god’s sake, and this is what she’s doing with numbers?

Well she can’t exactly go post “Hey guys, we’re screwed. There’s no chance of winning.”

[TheSaint250]

As time goes on, I become more and more convinced that this campaign broke Terry Hayes’s brain



She’s the treasurer for god’s sake, and this is what she’s doing with numbers?

Well she can’t exactly go post “Hey guys, we’re screwed. There’s no chance of winning.”

That’s basically what cutler did.

Guess she's a different type of independent