Saskatchewan election 2020

[mileslunn]

No polls in almost a year and so tough to know for sure where things are at, but it will be held on October 26, 2020.  Considering how unpopular Trudeau is in Saskatchewan and Moe's approval rating, I think smart money is on the Saskatchewan Party being re-elected.  Nonetheless I do think the NDP if they play their cards right has a chance to dominate the two main cities so I could easily see them getting over 20 seats, but Saskatchewan is much more rural than other provinces so you cannot form government by just winning cities.

[mileslunn]

I think problem with NDP is historically, class was main dividing point and Saskatchewan until oil and potash boom was a poorer province than most as well as many people voted a certain way just because their family always did, but those days long gone.  Only 40% of Saskatchewan residents live in Regina and Saskatoon and not just in Saskatchewan but across Canada and English speaking world, parties on left are no longer winning in urban areas under 100,000 or rural areas.  In most provinces, sweeping the over 100,000 urban areas is enough but not in Saskatchewan.  Never mind Regina and Saskatoon are much smaller cities so more open to voting NDP than rest of province but not off limits to Saskatchewan Party the way urban cores of larger cities are for parties on right.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, Wyoming is pushing it--and Regina and Saskatoon are far more dominant than Cheyenne and Casper.

The Dakotas are a closer equivalent, geographically and politically (i.e. their erstwhile amenability to Democrats, even those of a "McGovern-progressive" strain)

What's Alberta's US analogue?

Interestingly the Alberta NDP has pretty much become the Saskatchewan NDP, but better positioned perhaps given that it is a more urban province.

Alberta has far more favourable demographics for left.  More urban, larger university educated population, more diverse.  Main problem for left in Alberta is federal counterparts are seen as anti-energy which is main economic driver there.  I actually think Notley would have a much better chance in 2023 if she changed party name and totally delinked with all federal parties as UCP's main card is they are only party who will stand up for Alberta against hostile feds.

That being said on Saskatchewan, COVID-19 is helping most premiers, save Kenney (who now has lowest approval rating, even Ford is doing better, but has seen major bounce) so I think unless something dramatic happens Moe gets back in.  Only good thing for Meili is being a doctor might work to his advantage since health care has become such a big issue.  Not enough to win likely, but still if there was ever time where being a former doctor and running for office was advantageous it is now.

[mileslunn]

Election coming up but what few polls show Saskatchewan Party with a 25-30 point lead so seems a snoozer as past few have been.  Barring any major changes, Moe likely gets re-elected, still I think real area to watch is two main cities.  If NDP wants to win in 2024, they should try and win back their urban ridings as that gives them a good base to build off of.

On other hand recent polls suggest Saskatchewan Party is ahead in both Regina and Saskatoon but not an insurmountable lead like province wide.  Rural Saskatchewan nowadays seems to be blowouts for both Tories federally and Saskatchewan Party provincially.

[mileslunn]

Tomorrow is when writ must be dropped and unlike BC which is shaping up to be semi-competitive, this looks like a snoozer.  Yes things could tighten but barring something dramatic, cannot see NDP pulling off a win here.  For NDP their goal should be to win most of Regina, take most of Saskatoon save the east end where Saskatchewan party tends to get comparable margins to rural areas (I believe this is the most affluent part of city, so probably like fact SK party will keep taxes low), win two Prince Albert seats, hold two Northern seats (which they will), and if really lucky maybe win one Moose Jaw seat but that is probably a stretch.

I think If Meili can get over 20 seats, he will get another kick at the can in 2024 when Saskatchewan party will have been in power for 17 years thus strong desire for change.  If 15-20 seats maybe he stays on, while if under 15 seats (which is what polls suggest at moment) he is gone.  Either way NDP needs to find a way to appeal beyond urban areas and not sure how.  It seems with few exceptions, there are very few left wing parties anywhere that are able to win in rural areas.  Even in US, Biden will likely win fewer counties than Mondale did in 1984.  He only is on track to win, possibly a landslide due to dominance in metropolitan counties.  Ditto UK.  If Labour wins in 2024, it will mean winning several traditional Tory constituencies in London and London commuter belt.  The urban or semi-urban Red wall seats they would win back, but rural ones likely gone for good.

Heck even in BC, I am betting BC Liberals hold most if not all of the interior ridings they currently hold.  If NDP gets a majority there, it will be by running the board in Lower Mainland and picking off not just swing ridings, but some historically safe BC Liberal ridings like Richmond-Queensborough, Surrey-Cloverdale, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Vancouver-False Creek, North Vancouver-Seymour, and Vancouver-Langara, which a decade ago where ones BC Liberals would win by 20-30 points.  Thus NDP needs to find a way to win in smaller towns and rural areas and I cannot think of any left wing party in last decade who has managed to do this.  Maybe Ardern will in New Zealand on October 17th, but unlikely she holds those in 2023 so more a unique circumstance.  Such meaning if NDP does win, it will be due to Saskatchewan party becoming so unpopular, but tough to hold beyond one cycle.

[mileslunn]

Cumberland and Athabasca, otherwise two seats with a First Nations' majority are only two rural seats I can see NDP winning and ironically those were their two best seats in 2016 and may well be again.  South of that, all NDP seats I expect to be urban.  Maybe smaller urban as I could see them winning one or both of the Prince Albert seats.  A Moose Jaw seat possible but much more difficult.

[mileslunn]

I don't think there is much of an urban rural split in Scandinavia and there are some very rural areas of France and Spain and Portugal that still vote left - in fact the Alentejo region of rural Portugal remains a Communist stronghold to this day.

Scandinavia is a lot like Ontario and Manitoba as yes Centre Party who is sort of a rural version of our Liberals does well in rural areas, but Greens and Left are very urban.  Social Democratic party in southern parts where most agriculture is and all of Denmark tend to be largely confined to urban areas.  They do however in Norway, Finland, and Sweden do really well in the northern rural parts, but not southern rural parts, so otherwise not the rural Agrarian parts.  In a lot of ways comparable to Manitoba and Ontario where NDP does well in northern parts, but poorly in rural southern parts.

In Portugal that is true, but Alentejo an anomaly there and a few others exist.  For Spain, there are a few rural areas that vote left, but the trend is rightward while right wing urban areas like Valencia and Madrid, trend is leftward even if they have not flipped yet.

To every rule you can find a few exceptions, but overall rural areas which left does well in are becoming less and less common around the globe and its more a timing.  Some like Saskatchewan moved away from left sooner than others did. 

[mileslunn]

The decline of the NDP in rural Saskatchewan is parallel to the decline of the Democrats in the Dakotas and rural Minnesota. Once a upon a time South Dakota elected George McGovern to the US senate and North Dakota elected a lot of socialists in the depression etc... but that would never happen now. Minnesota leans Democratic because the Twin Cities are such a big part of the population (like what Winnipeg is to Manitoba). In the long run I'd rather be a party whose base is in the cities and suburbs - which are steadily growing in population, then be a party whose base in depopulated and shriking rural areas...

In most provinces that works, but Saskatchewan is a lot more rural than most provinces.  In Manitoba you can win by just sweeping Winnipeg but cannot in Saskatchewan by sweeping Regina and Saskatoon.  In Ontario, most elections since 2000 at both levels have seen Tories sweep rural Southern Ontario but few in urban ridings thus only around 1/4 to a 1/3 of seats.  Only in 2011 and 2018 provincially when they broke into suburbs could they win.  BC similar as NDP could easily get 50 seats by running the board of seats west of the Surrey/Langley border and only win a handful east of that.  In Alberta, if Notley wins in 2023 which is a long shot, it would be by sweeping Edmonton and winning vast majority of seats in Calgary while rural Alberta is a UCP lock.

So in most provinces and nationally you are bang on and ditto in US, UK, and Australia, but in Saskatchewan being more rural won't work.  Sort of like how Iowa used to go blue, but recent sorting means it will likely be tough for Democrats to win in future.  But at same time, Texas which is quite urban is now in play thus a pretty good trade off.

[mileslunn]

The NDP could get a majority if it literally swept every urban seat, plus won the 2 far north ridings:

2 far north +
13 in Saskatoon +
12 in Regina +
2 in Moose Jaw +
2 in Prince Albert
3 in smaller cities (Swift Current, Yorkton, the Battlefords)

That gives you 33 seats, a bare majority

Of course, winning some of those seats requires huge swings. Take Yorkton for example, which has voted for the winning party in every election since 1964, making it the province's best bellwether. The Sask Party won it in 2016 by 50 points.

Also it seems in Canada, urban areas over 100,000 is the typical tipping point.  Yorkton and Swift Current are pretty small and if you look at cities with similar size in Ontario, they tend to always vote Tory even in bad elections, like Tilsonburg, Pembroke, Brockville etc.

That being said if NDP were to win, it would probably be through such path.

[mileslunn]

In a rural-urban-sorted era, bellwethers aren't the eternal thing they once might have seemed.  Kitchener Centre, for one, now seems more perma-left than a left-right swinger.

Yes and no.  Looking across Canada and US sort of mixed.

For BC, Kamloops used to be bellwether but this is no longer case.  BC Liberals will definitely win Kamloops-South Thompson while Kamloops-North Thompson might go NDP, but only if a landslide, its not a bellwether anymore.

For Alberta, the city of Calgary as a whole is considered a bellwether despite few competitive elections and this probably still true as regardless of results, Edmonton always votes left of province as whole while Rural Alberta to right.  That being said I could see something like NDP wins 15 of 26 seats in Calgary but UCP wins 46 seats overall, but only if really close might this trend be bucked.

In Manitoba, Gimli is seen as a bellwether and while I could see NDP winning it back in a landslide election, I don't think it is any longer a bellwether, its more conservative than province is as a whole.

For Ontario, it is Peterborough-Kawartha which still both provincially and federally remains one.  Peterborough is a smaller city with a university thus small enough for Tories to win but large enough it can go progressive.  But also 30% of riding is rural which Tories tend to dominate.

Sarnia-Lambton however is definitely no longer a bellwether, its now pretty solidly Tory and maybe could go NDP if they were to win so perhaps a bellwether in an NDP-Tory battle, but not a Liberal-Tory one.

For Quebec you have Laval des Rapides and CAQ probably would win it if an election were held today, but it is no longer a bellwether.

In US, Missouri used to be a bellwether but now solid red state.  Ohio was too and while still winnable by Democrats, its no longer a tipping point state; it only votes Democrat if they are on track for a solid win, not in a nail biter.  Of counties, Vigo County, Indiana often seen as a bellwether but again I could see Democrats winning it in a landslide, but not in a close election, it would go GOP.

So in sum yeah past bellwethers aren't always good ones and certainly with sorting, political alignments are changing.  The NDP's best hope is with Saskatchewan now a have province and more immigrants moving there than in past, while fewer people leaving, Regina and Saskatoon should each election cycle have a larger share of population and if province were to get to 1.4 million people as Scott Moe wants, most of the growth would probably be in those two cities thus likely closer to 50% of population than current 40%.  Only risk is you might see a lot of growth in exurbs like you are now seeing elsewhere and those tend to vote heavily to right.  Likewise amongst First Nations, birth rate is much higher, so their share of population is growing which helps NDP.  Major challenge is turnout tends to be atrocious amongst them. 

[mileslunn]

In a rural-urban-sorted era, bellwethers aren't the eternal thing they once might have seemed.  Kitchener Centre, for one, now seems more perma-left than a left-right swinger.

Ontario's best bellwethers are actually Peterborough and Scarborough Centre, and they're still swinging with the tide. Niagara Falls was one too until Wayne Gates won it.

Sarnia used to be a pretty good federal bellwether, but decided to not back Trudeau.

Scarborough Centre is more still a bellwether due to luck.  It is much less favourable to Tories than province or country as whole, just happened in 2011 and 2018 it was a very strong swing to Tories thus won it.  If Liberals rather than NDP main alternative and Tories winning around 70 seats with Liberals at say 40 seats, pretty sure in that circumstance Scarborough Centre would vote Liberal.

For Saskatchewan, last two were such big blowouts and things have changed so much since 2003 that I don't think we will know where bellwethers lie until we have another NDP win or close election.

In BC, looking at past few elections, I am kind of thinking Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge-Mission, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Vancouver-Fraserview would be good candidates for future bellwethers

Niagara Falls was also largely a bellwether federally but since 2004, has gone Tory each election although in 2004, 2015, and 2019 margins weren't particularly large so its not a safe Tory riding by any means, but not a bellwether either.  Nepean and Kanata-Carleton as well as Kitchener-Conestoga might be bellwethers.

While only true at federal level, in every election from 2004 to 2015, London West results were almost bang on what overall Ontario results were with each party being within a percent or two, but then diverged in 2019 and hasn't materialized provincially. 

For UK if current voter coalition holds, you could ironically see traditionally safe Labour seats like Bolsover and Sedgefield and traditionally safe Tory like Cities of London & Westminster, Wycombe, and Rushcliffe emerge as bellwethers.  Kenneth Clarke and Dennis Skinner were both longest serving members of their respective parties prior to 2019 and both never had trouble winning, yet results in 2019 in both their constituencies were almost bang on national averages.

[mileslunn]

Meanwhile your average rural Saskatchewan or Dakota's farmer probably does own the land he farms in because his family was the one who settled it in the first place, only 150 years ago or so.

In general around the world I'd say land owners vote for the right, while peasants vote for the left. It's just that places like rural Canada or America have many more landlords than peasants.

Though another thing to consider is that at one time the Prairies were dotted with small "family farms". Those have largely died off and now its mostly factory farming. The main thing happening in places like rural Saskatchewan is you have a shrinking aging population who are resistant to social change and its hard to get them excited about economic populism when all the social media they are exposed to just goes on about gun rights and the threat of Muslims and transgendered people etc...

Also a lot of the people old enough to remember CCF days and Tommy Douglas have mostly died off while newer generation is much more individualistic and entrepreneurial and less on collectivist ideals as previous generations.  In addition large exodus to Alberta which has only ended recently probably makes some think if we vote more like Alberta we will do better.  Never mind parties on left focusing more on social issues has helped them win middle class and upper middle class urban areas, but hurt them in smaller working class communities.  Off course former is growing while latter shrinking so nationally probably the right move.

One thing that NDP may have in their favour long term is birth rate amongst First Nations much higher and projections show by 2050 they will be 1/3 of Saskatchewan's population so provided they are spread out (not sure how distribution works) and actually show up (low turnout quite common here) that could help NDP, but that is still a few decades away.  For newer non-white immigrants, not sure much benefit as I find a lot who move to Saskatchewan and similar to Alberta.  Otherwise the very entrepreneurial small business types so vote conservative more so than in other provinces.

[mileslunn]

Meili yesterday promised to introduce a wealth tax on those with net worth over $15 million.  Idea seems to be becoming more common amongst parties on left and be interesting to see how public responds.  Biggest danger though is I am not sure it can work at a provincial level as my guess is those impacted will just move to another province, most likely Alberta, Manitoba, or BC.  Probably easier to do at federal level where that risk is lower.  Yes one can move abroad, but its more difficult to move abroad than it is to move to another province.  I am thinking wealth taxes on provincial level would only work if every province had one and that seems unlikely, at least not under current political configuration.  For Scott Moe, his best response would be to just state this will not raise much money as those impacted will just leave Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan party's goal is to increase population not drive people away.  Never mind its not as though you have a lot of large corporations in Saskatchewan or a bunch of wealthy retirees moving there so surprised there are many people with net worth that high to begin with.  Its not like Alberta with oil industry, Ontario with financial, and BC thanks to warmer climate so lots of wealthy retirees move there.  Only possibility is some of the large farms are worth over that.

In past usually NDP has run on raising top rates and perhaps higher property taxes on expensive homes or a luxury tax, but this is new.  BC NDP has done all the former but not wealth tax even though BC has a lot more high net worth people than Saskatchewan.  Mind you in BC a lot of high net worth aren't residents there so property taxes better way to capture them.  Wonder if NDP will still propose raising top income tax rate as Saskatchewan is one of the lowest in Canada so unlike other provinces, they could raise a few points and not be uncompetitive with rest of country.

Scott Moe promises balanced budget by 2024 without tax hikes.  NDP claims this means austerity.  Reality is this will depend a lot on how soon a vaccine is developed and what type of recovery we have.  If an L shaped recovery, very difficult without a harsh dose of austerity.  But if a V shaped recovery, very easy and probably have a surplus to do other stuff.

Meili promises $15/hour minimum wage which seems popular in other jurisdictions but wonder what timeframe as doing it right away seems bad, but if over 4 years feasible.  Mind you Saskatchewan's cost of living isn't nearly as high as BC, Alberta, or Ontario, so $15/hour there is probably like $17 to $19/hour in other three mentioned in terms of purchasing power.

[mileslunn]

With recent bombshell on Moe with 2nd DUI that was stayed and also women he killed in traffic accident, do you think this will have any impact?  This was already widely known so I am skeptical, but be interested to see what polls show over this.

[mileslunn]

A case could be made that Saskatchewan and not Alberta is now the bedrock of conservative support in Canada. The federal Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in 2019, but fell one seat short of doing the same in Alberta. Some federal polls have recently put Conservative support in Saskatchewan running roughly even with the party's support in its western neighbour.

Provincially, the Saskatchewan Party and leader Scott Moe remain popular, while Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and his United Conservative Party have dropped in the polls. The NDP won an election in Alberta in 2015. The NDP has not won an election in Saskatchewan since 2003.

Another emphatic victory by the Saskatchewan Party would make the case stronger. Already, the party has put up historic performances, capturing more than 60 per cent of the vote in the last two provincial elections. The only other provincial parties in Canada to have done that in at least two consecutive elections were the Newfoundland Liberals after the province joined Confederation and the Quebec Liberals during the First World War.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-political-dynaties-1.5747048?cmp=rss

Saskatchewan has more favourable demographics for parties on right.  More rural, slightly older, quite a bit whiter, percent with a university degree somewhat lower.  So no real surprise.  We are seeing a re-alignment across the globe and Saskatchewan better fits your typical conservative stronghold than Alberta does.  Alberta is 3rd most urban, 3rd most diverse, most educated, and youngest province which are not exactly demographics known for being favourable to conservative ideas.

[mileslunn]

Actually Oklahoma City went Democrat in midterms and if you look at precinct breakdowns for OKC and Tulsa, Democrats dominated inner city parts much like NDP does in Regina and Saskatoon.  Now yes NDP if they have a good showing could pull out to suburbs.  Real problem is 60% live outside two cities and going elsewhere you have two Northern ridings, two Prince Albert and if you really want to stretch it two Moose Jaw ones.  But that still has NDP a bit short.  Off course eventually people will fatigue of Saskatchewan party and go NDP.  Just saying demographics are not favourable there to modern left wing coalitions.

[mileslunn]

Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina all seem pretty similar in their voting patterns. 

True, but in 2019, the orange blob was bigger in Saskatoon than Regina (probably due to the whole Erin Weir situation + Ralph Goodale strength in Wascana). Under normal circumstances, a 34-seat Sasktchewan map would probably produce an NDP seat in both cities, plus maybe one in the north?

I would say Regina is slightly more NDP friendly than Saskatoon due to civil service, although both have universities.  However the gap between two is not as wide as say Edmonton and Calgary.

[mileslunn]

Finally a new poll. It's a bit tighter.

Sask 58%
NDP 36%
P.C     2%
Green 2%
Liberal 1%
Others 1%

https://researchco.ca/2020/10/11/skpoli-first/

Meilimentum!

Regional breakdown
Regina
Sask 49%
NDP 47%

Saskatoon
Sask 54%
NDP 41%

Rest of Province
Sask 65%
NDP 25%

NDP got 37% in 2007 so not bad results but still got a ways to go.  I cannot see NDP realistically winning here so their goal should be to win at least 15 ideally 20 seats which gives them a good base to work from for 2024.

[mileslunn]

While not over yet, seems 2020 elections look like they've been good news for incumbents and bad news for opponents.  Higgs already got his majority, Horgan likely will in 9 days and Moe likely wins a landslide in 11 days.  So wondering if the polls are accurate if that makes Trudeau want to find a way to go sooner than later.

[mileslunn]

Mine are

Saskatchewan party 57% - 43 seats
NDP 35% - 18 seats

[mileslunn]

Anyone have TV links on youtube?

[mileslunn]

While still have to count mail in ballots, NDP at 27%, Saskatchewan party at 64% and if you take total right wing vote (over 2/3) so this is a much bigger win for Saskatchewan Party than polls suggested.  Yes mail in ballots should cut margin a bit, but still huge disappointment for NDP.  My guess is with it pandemic raging and it being a foregone conclusion Saskatchewan Party would win, many NDP voters stayed home.  Looks like very bad turnout.

Anyways as I've stated elsewhere, I kind of have a feeling Saskatchewan is about to replace Alberta as Canada's most conservative province where conservative parties can reliably count on winning.

[mileslunn]

Did NDP win mail in ballots or just tighter?  Be interesting to see how it impacts BC as I believe in BC, the number is higher and they are supposed to heavily favour NDP.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the count's complete--Pasqua and Riversdale stay Sask
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/final-count-in-for-sask-election-2-ridings-decided-1.5794500

The NDP must have done quite well with the remaining Mail in ballots because while they lost those seats they narrowed the gap quite a bit even compared to the first count of Mail ins

Mail in ballots I think tend to favour parties on left as we have seen in four elections recently.  In New Zealand National lost ground on those and it pushed Ardern over 50% mark.  Again didn't change outcome but still helped.

In BC, less shift, but NDP did increase vote by 2.5% while BC liberals fell 1.5% but could also be mail in ballots were mostly in Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island where NDP dominated and less so in Interior.  Despite that shift smaller than others as BC Liberals more your run of mill centre-right party, not Trumpian so their supporters probably take pandemic almost as seriously as NDP.  In Interior, almost no COVID-19 cases so fewer concerns.

In Saskatchewan, partly geography as most mail in were in Regina and Saskatoon where NDP does better, but also while Saskatchewan Party is far from Trumpian, Saskatchewan unlike BC does have its fair share of Trump like types and they probably mostly vote Saskatchewan Party while few vote NDP thus likely while not as big a divide as US, those that are anti-maskers, oppose restrictions and think COVID-19 is a joke disproportionately voted Saskatchewan Party.

US most extreme example.  Pennsylvania showed Trump ahead by 15 points on election night, but then Biden won as 78% of mail in voters went for him so probably similar scenario but not quite to same extent.  Otherwise people who vote for parties on left more likely to be concerned about COVID-19 thus vote by mail while for those on right, a sizeable portion although not near to extent as in US see COVID-19 as no threat thus prefer to vote in person.  Never mind probably Trump's rhetoric may have had some spillover in convincing the MAGA types in Saskatchewan (who are about 25% of province) mail in ballots subject to fraud.