Saskatchewan election 2020

[Storr]

It's election day in Saskatchewan!

[DistingFlyer]

Might as well throw out a forecast . . .

SP - 40 (56%)
NDP - 21 (37%)

[Benjamin Frank]

SP 43
NDP 18

Rest of Province
Sask:31
NDP: 4 (+1)

Saskatoon
Sask: 8
NDP: 6 (+1)

Regina
Sask: 4
NDP: 8 (+3)

[Jeppe]

SKP - 39
NDP - 22

1. Cumberland
2. Athabasca
3. Regina Lakeview
4. Saskatoon Nutana
5. Regina Elphinstone-Centre
6. Saskatoon Centre
7. Regina Rosemont
8. Saskatoon Riversdale
9. Regina Douglas Park
10. Saskatoon Fairview
11. Prince Albert Northcote
12. Saskatoon Meewasin
13. Regina Northeast
14. Saskatoon Westview
15. Regina Coronation Park
16. Saskatoon University
17. Regina University
18. Regina Pasqua
19. Saskatoon Eastview
20. Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood
21. Moose Jaw Wakamow
22. Prince Albert Carlton

[mileslunn]

Mine are

Saskatchewan party 57% - 43 seats
NDP 35% - 18 seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There has actually been a last-minute glut (well, compared to what we had...) of polls, all showing a broadly similar picture: Saskatchewan Party on 55-56%, NDP on 36-38%, others nowhere.

[adma]

My feeling is, Meili will come out of this with a "future premier" plausibility that the last two electiontime NDP leaders didn't.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have TV links on youtube?

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone have TV links on youtube?

CBC just started https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEmunn9OWi0&ab_channel=CBCSaskatchewan

[Benjamin Frank]

Anyone have TV links on youtube?

CBC just started https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEmunn9OWi0&ab_channel=CBCSaskatchewan

Thanks!

[Tintrlvr]

When should we expect results to start coming in?

[trebor204]

Results:

https://results.elections.sk.ca/

[Oryxslayer]

Sas Party leads in 15, NDP in 3.

[Oryxslayer]

Sas 37, 6 NDP.

CBC projects Sas majority.

[trebor204]

CBC and CTV projects Sask Party majority

[Benjamin Frank]

Buckley Belanger in a relatively close race.

[ON Progressive]

Very disappointing night for the NDP.

If one didn't already think the SK NDP was dead somehow, now they can think of them as dead.

[Storr]

Very disappointing night for the NDP.

If one didn't already think the SK NDP was dead somehow, now they can think of them as dead.

One party province?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would ignore popular vote figures for now - significantly more postal votes have been cast in the cities than in the sticks and they have not been counted tonight.

Anyway the scores at present are Saskatchewan Party 46, NDP 15. This is a change of five seats on the 2016 election. Of course with so much left to count and the seats being so small, much can yet shift.

[adma]

Anyway the scores at present are Saskatchewan Party 46, NDP 15. This is a change of five seats on the 2016 election. Of course with so much left to count and the seats being so small, much can yet shift.

Yeah, with that in mind, I'd scarcely label the Sask NDP "dead"--realistically speaking, that's within the mean seat total most were anticipating.  So if that *is* a death, it's more preordained,  It just means that a path back to power is ever more difficult; but we all already knew that.

If their seat total remained mired in the 3-6 range, *then* it'd be Taps time.  But 15 is "live another day" territory.  (And if their vote share fell, it's in part due to the Buffalo Party unexpectedly stealing some of the rural nominal-opposition thunder.  Seems that much like in BC, minor right wing forces were on the upswing.)

[mileslunn]

While still have to count mail in ballots, NDP at 27%, Saskatchewan party at 64% and if you take total right wing vote (over 2/3) so this is a much bigger win for Saskatchewan Party than polls suggested.  Yes mail in ballots should cut margin a bit, but still huge disappointment for NDP.  My guess is with it pandemic raging and it being a foregone conclusion Saskatchewan Party would win, many NDP voters stayed home.  Looks like very bad turnout.

Anyways as I've stated elsewhere, I kind of have a feeling Saskatchewan is about to replace Alberta as Canada's most conservative province where conservative parties can reliably count on winning.

[Benjamin Frank]

All polls reporting

The Sask Party is now up 50-11 in seats, with Meili personally trailing.

Unless rescued by the mail in ballots, Meili's left wing socialist approach has to be considered a complete failure.

On that score, even if all the mail in ballots went to the party in 2nd place in the riding, the Sask Party would still win 40 ridings to 3 for the N.D.P.

18 ridings could flip. Of course, in some ridings the NDP is ahead by quite a bit, but there are more mail in votes in their ridings.

[DC Al Fine]

All polls reporting

The Sask Party is now up 50-11 in seats, with Meili personally trailing.

Unless rescued by the mail in ballots, Meili's left wing socialist approach has to be considered a complete failure.

On that score, even if all the mail in ballots went to the party in 2nd place in the riding, the Sask Party would still win 40 ridings to 3 for the N.D.P.

18 ridings could flip. Of course, in some ridings the NDP is ahead by quite a bit, but there are more mail in votes in their ridings.

What specifically was Meili doing differently from Lingenfelter and Broten?

[adma]

It's looking like the NDP's got a more ambivalent result than "live another day" (and if Meili loses his seat, there goes the "premier in waiting" cast)

But even so, the one thing standing against declaring the NDP "dead" is: what's the alternative?  Basically, with the near-disappearance of the Sask Libs and the near-irrelevance of the Sask Greens, they have the viable left-of-Sask vote park advantage all to themselves--and treading water at 10 seats per election might not be great, but it at least keeps *some* kind of electoral pump primed.

Their problem is, they've yet to hit upon a compelling Notley/Horgan figurehead, and the Sask Party has had too steady a hand on the tiller.  And maybe re the "left wing socialist approach" comment below, they still have a bit of an identity crisis, where whatever vestige of Romanow "natural governing party" pragmatism coexists rather uneasily with the modern-day left-of-centre urge to be "woke".

And yes, Regina/Saskatoon are growing--but the elements there that are growing might be categorized as "Scheer suburbs", which at least for the meantime cancels out the impulse to veer left.

So if Saskatchewan is taking over Alberta's heartland-of-conservativism mantle, it might be through being the Abbotsford to Alberta's Greater Vancouver, or the Erin O'Toole's Clarington to the GTA.  A bit more peripheral, a bit sleepier, a bit less "cosmopolitan", etc...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In retrospect, I probably should have guessed that Meili wouldn't get very far based on the fact that Canadian political Reddit seemed to like him long before he became leader.