2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Unelectable Bystander]

I would advise against using 538’s generic ballot as any sort of scientific measure. By my count, YouGov and Morning Consult make up 11 out of their 24 polls since the beginning of December, both of which hackishly show an inflexible D+4 result without ever showing a Biden approval above 45%. Even if these magical Biden disapproving/generic D approving voters do exist and are democrats, good luck getting them to show up for moderate swing districts D’s in an off year cycle when they don’t even like the party’s leader. At some point, it’s just wishing a blue wave into existence like 2020 and then wondering why institutions are distrusted.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I would advise against using 538’s generic ballot as any sort of scientific measure. By my count, YouGov and Morning Consult make up 11 out of their 24 polls since the beginning of December, both of which hackishly show an inflexible D+4 result without ever showing a Biden approval above 45%. Even if these magical Biden disapproving/generic D approving voters do exist and are democrats, good luck getting them to show up for moderate swing districts D’s in an off year cycle when they don’t even like the party’s leader. At some point, it’s just wishing a blue wave into existence like 2020 and then wondering why institutions are distrusted.

You might be right, but also worth considering the possibility that we're now in a period that will invariably be dominated by high-turnout, partisanship-driven competitive elections in which more volatile variables will exert less (though still some) influence, not dissimilar to the late 1800's. Consistent, margin-of-error leads like this despite notable movement on other questions a strong sign of that.

There may be some evidence of that in presidential year elections, but not in this midterm environment.
1. Voters in 2021, if anything, seemed more likely to cross over. IIRC there was a large cohort of people that don’t regret voting for Biden but voted Youngkin + straight ticket R’s. Also, 2021 saw massive increases in unaffiliated voter registrations with decreases in the two major parties
2. There’s no evidence that turnout is high for Dem’s currently. Actual elections and all available polling show an enthusiasm gap between conservatives and liberals, but YouGov refuses to acknowledge this in their poll weighting

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1481342334633533440?t=FnEImskpB2SKvmIN...

7 point improvement on GCB for Dems.

Biden's approval is 33% in the same poll.. the undecideds will dramatically lean R.

not necessarily. the reason his overall approval is 33% is things like a <30% approval among 18-34 years olds, who are not voting R.

These people are not voting at all, which may as well be the same thing as voting R. They didn’t show up for Obama’s midterms, they surely won’t show up when Biden fails to deliver any of the bizarre things he promised them.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Nobody has posted this whopper yet?

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TRF-Generic-Ballot-0119-Poll-Report.pdf

R+13.

Lol so for the “just cuz it doesn’t match your narrative doesn’t mean it’s junk” crowd, does that apply here too or is that statement only true for YouGov polls?

[Unelectable Bystander]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

R+6/7 is honestly not that bad considering the environment. Still, puts Dems in a position of losing like 40 house seats.

Not even, especially considering the lack of competitive districts thanks to all the gerrymandering.

This is probably true and also speaks to how much this board is over-emphasizing the debate on whether or not it will be a shellacking worse than 2010. It doesn’t need to be and it doesn’t even really matter. 290 seats would be functionally the same as 225 seats while Biden is president, and most of those blue districts would just flip back in 2024 anyways. There are really only a few important questions this cycle:
1. Will the popular vote be at least R+3 or 4? At this point, the big 4 D senate seats would probably all flip and all GOP seats are gone locking in 54-46 majority AND the GOP has a chance to accelerate trends and flip some current blue future red seats (west central Illinois, northwest Indiana). These are the only incremental house seats that matter because they’ll likely be gone for good once they flip
2. Will the popular vote be at least roughly even, at which point the GOP flips at least one chamber (particularly the senate)?

Everything else is fairly irrelevant

[Unelectable Bystander]

Mr. Pollster I hope you are not actually buying that lol.

Anyways, somebody call Wasserman to ask how much he’s seen, because I am ready to call the race for Hinson

[Unelectable Bystander]

(C)-rated CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/11/politics/cnn-poll-economy-education-2022/index.html
CNN Poll: Economy and education could shape how Americans vote in 2022

GOP +1

They had Dems +5 in Nov, Dems +1 in Sep 2021.
They had Dems +11 right before 2020 election, so a double digits swing since 2020.

With that and the Susquehanna poll, the 538 weighted generic ballot is now at R+ 2.2, a new high for this cycle. GB and special elections have been the only factors not signaling a wave, so certainly an interesting development

[Unelectable Bystander]

D's lead on GCB 42/37 on the You Gov poll it's February not October still too premature to celebrate for Rs and COVID is going down good for Biden this is the same Biden that beat Trump in 2028 and won 375 EC votes in 2008/12

42 % ain't all that great because the further we go in the 2022 Campaign the more likely the Undecided Voters break for the Challenger. YouGov Poll also underpolled White Non-College Vote.

I tried saying this two months ago but every left leaner tried to claim that it was only the result of Biden disapproving democrats. Every week that passes with Dems still at 42% on the GCB is another nail in the coffin. Also, can we vote to ban YouGov polls from this website? They literally send one out every 5 minutes and they’re utter trash.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1495112270707404806


It's not yet set in stone, but I think, that a lot of Dems still don't grasp how big red wave might [likely?] become. Imo most people still think it will be R+2 at *worst*.

I love the absolute copium in his replies lol

[Unelectable Bystander]

I still feel quite good about Republicans taking the House.

Texas Primary was 64 % Republican / 36 % Democratic

We will have to see if this holds in places like Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, etc in May.

Those are actually liberal saboteurs who showed up just to defeat the Trumpians. Strangely enough, my cousin’s sister-in-law’s friend is one of these and he said he’s a Biden -> Biden disapprover -> generic ballot undecided -> R primary -> straight ticket D voter

[Unelectable Bystander]

DCCC announces its first list of "Red to Blue" candidates and adds several frontline members: https://mailchi.mp/1aa185addc72/dccc-announces-changes-to-its-2022-house-battlefield-names-first-round-of-candidates-to-coveted-red-to-blue-list?e=f7ed7e5be5

Red to Blue:
Rudy Salas (CA-22, Valadao)
Jay Chen (CA-45, Steel)
Brittany Petersen (CO-07, Open Dem-held)
Christina Bohannon (IA-01, Miller-Meeks)
Liz Mathis (IA-02, Hinson)
Nikki Budzinski (IL-13, Open)
Hillary Scholten (MI-03, Meijer)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-02, Herrell)
Jackie Gordon (NY-01, Open)
Max Rose (NY-11, Malliotakis)
Greg Landsman (OH-01, Chabot)
Emilia Sykes (OH-13, Open)

Frontline:
CT-02 (Courtney)
NC-06 (Manning)
PA-06 (Houlahan)

One of these lists is not like the other

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712
FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

I mean, I'm sure this is an outlier, but it's not as silly as folks are acting either in the sense that we know how this result came about.  Gaetz is a well-known pedophile who committed statutory rape against a minor procured for him through a sex trafficking ring and is likely going to end up in federal prison when all is said and done.  Also, I doubt anyone knows who Jones is and party ID wasn't included (obviously it should've been).  

That's not the Point! The Point is no way on Earth would Republicans lose an R +30 District in a Biden Midterm NO MATTER WHO THE GOP NOMINEE IS!

Honestly Gaetz is a worse candidate than both Mitch and Rand Paul. We know that both of them are endangered so I think this is a sneaky pickup opportunity which warrants millions of investment

[Unelectable Bystander]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

A lot of the people who disapprove Biden probably disapprove of Republicans more. I can see a result where about an even amount of people on each quickly make up their minds and vote, but that the remaining 10% break 2:1 GOP when they get in the voting booth. That gives the Republicans a 3-4% win and with the degerrymandering, probably gives us a result similar to the edge the GOP had between 1995 and 2007. Between 225 and 235 seats.  It will take a LOT to get the big margins in Congress they had in 2011, 2015, 2017 and in the 1920s.

I think there’s some validity to this. If Biden’s approval stays in the high 30’s or low 40’s, there’s a good chance that this is the first midterm where a party outperforms the presidential approval. The reason for this is the small but significant pouty wing of the Dems who despise anybody who doesn’t agree with their priorities, but will still vote D despite not liking Biden. But these people are also already polling D in the generic ballot. The lion’s share of undecideds are independents, mostly moderate but some conservative, who all disapprove of Biden. There’s simply no reason for this 8% of the electorate to eventually break Dem though, which is why we should be watching for D vote share in the generic ballot instead of net margin

[Unelectable Bystander]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

Tie generic ballot = R lead

[Unelectable Bystander]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

Tie generic ballot = R lead

- As with all polls I throw this one on the pile. I don't give it extra weight/ignore because I  like/dislike the results.

- Polling errors work both ways. Just because the averages underestimated Republicans in 2020 does not mean they will in 2022.

Did you not read what election guy posted? The generic ballot was comfortably D in November 2021. Based on actual election results in VA, NJ, and many city-wide elections, the national “environment” could have been no less severe than R +6. How does it make any sense that the obvious polling bias has reserved itself and become too R friendly in the last 4 months? Have major pollsters changed their methodologies?

[Unelectable Bystander]

The issue that is dogging Biden even though these are April not Nov numbers is that there is still COVID he was supposed to end COVID and didn't


Biden found out it wasn't a US problem it's a Worldwide problem you have to end it with everyone not just in the US, abd he still let's illegals in thru the Border

This isn’t really true, the poll has him above water on covid while getting hammered on everything else including economy, foreign policy, and border security. This actually dispels the fake idea that covid was the only thing keeping Dems from a 2002 style unity midterm. The only thing still hurting him regarding covid is the memory of the Omicron chaos leading to a general opinion of incompetence, but Dems are likely actually being helped in this poll by having given up on lockdown culture.

Something interesting is the American favorability towards confirming judges. The population seems to generally approve of confirmation regardless of who it is, and maybe wants to keep politics out of the process.

[Unelectable Bystander]

NC-Cygnal: Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot in North Carolina 50% to 44%-

https://www.cygn.al/poll-republicans-hold-generic-ballot-as-economic-and-inflation-concerns-grow/

Yeah... it is a lot worse than that.

Because the Cygnal poll oversampled Democrats by roughly 13%.(37-48.8 right/wrong track when the national average is 27.6-65)(Democrats wouldn't have these numbers in a Democratic wave year, let alone a GOP wave year)

So, that would translate to Republicans having roughly a 16.5% advantage in the generic ballot in North Carolina.

Don’t forget Biden’s approvals being better than the NW average in an R +6 state

[Unelectable Bystander]

It’s funny timing actually yesterday I received the college magazine in the mail from the school I attended for grad school. They had a page about a 2020 election poll from the school. I figured it’d be interesting info. Keep in mind that it’s a well known school but not one that’s particularly known for liberalism relative to other schools, so it may be more conservative than the college aged population at large. On the other hand, that might be canceled out by the liberal response bias that you get in any poll at an educational institution.

~85% voted in 2020

-67% Biden 27% Trump

-About 25% self ID as republican, 35% independent, 40% democrat

-Among males, it was a roughly even split between conservative, moderate, and liberal

-Among females, a whopping majority of the poll was liberal

-Trump voters prioritized economy, abortion, and immigration in that order. Biden voters prioritized coronavirus, racial justice, and climate change in that order

This seems to line up with the Gen Z gender gap people are referring to. A college educated male sample of 33% conservative is a decent number for republicans, since that’s not too far below the nationwide average and will likely rise over time. The female ideological breakdown is so strong though. Another interesting thing is that seems to imply that trump won barely any independents, or he won some and lost a huge chunk of republicans. This speaks to the idea that Trump is a uniquely bad fit at colleges

[Unelectable Bystander]

The gender gap among Gen Z will likely converge a bit once they get married. Whether that will benefit dems or repubs remains to be seen.

https://twitter.com/a_centrism/status/1515669034599129088
More proof as to my theory about Gen Z and the gender divide. Republicans making "free speech online" an issue can make them have inroads in Gen Z males whereas Gen Z females will be hostile to that and go dem.

Very big if true

[Unelectable Bystander]

POLITICO piece on both parties' Senate targets. Notably, NH does not appear on either party's list and Democrats don’t seem to be considering NC a viable pick-up opportunity right now.

The GOP-controlled Senate Leadership Fund is reserving eight-figure ad flights starting in September to protect Republican seats in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as to take Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, the group told POLITICO. SLF also laid down millions in Alaska to protect incumbent Lisa Murkowski from a Donald Trump-inspired primary challenge.

Those GOP plans follow the Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC’s moves to set aside $106 million in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania, with most of those ads beginning in August. [...]

Notably, neither super PAC is putting money yet in New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is running for reelection. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu took a pass on challenging Hassan, and both parties will be watching the September GOP primary closely to see who emerges.

Some Republicans are feeling less and less sure about how competitive they will be in the Granite State, but Law said he feels “very confident that we will end up playing in New Hampshire.” In the interim, Republicans and Democrats alike are concentrating elsewhere.

The McConnell-connected Senate Leadership Fund will drop a whopping $37 million in Georgia this fall, $27 million in North Carolina, $24 million in Pennsylvania, $15 million each in Nevada and Wisconsin, $14 million in Arizona and $7.4 million in Alaska. The Schumer-connected Senate Majority PAC reserved $26 million in Pennsylvania, $22 million in Arizona, $21 million in Nevada, $12 million in Wisconsin and nearly $25 million in Georgia.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/18/senate-mcconnell-super-pac-134-million-ads-00025642

Why protect Murkowski? We’re not talking about Susan Collins here, it’s Alaska in a Biden midterm. Any reasonable choice can hold the seat

[Unelectable Bystander]

Why protect Murkowski? We’re not talking about Susan Collins here, it’s Alaska in a Biden midterm. Any reasonable choice can hold the seat

You have to protect your incumbents or nobody pays their NRSC dues.

Fair enough

[Unelectable Bystander]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

[Unelectable Bystander]

A whopping 6 recent polls have R generic ballot leads (4 if you exclude right wing pollsters). The only 2 that don’t? You guessed it YouGov and Morning Consult. According to them, America at large is about as #inelastic as Nevada

[Unelectable Bystander]

I don't think anyone's posted these national polls:

Emerson (4/25-26)
R 47
D 41

Susquehanna (4/19-27)
R 49
D 39

With the inclusion of these and the new Marist poll, the 538 average is up to R+ 2.7 and RCP is R +4.7. Both are the new high marks for the cycle I believe

[Unelectable Bystander]

Don't believe these polls, which I don't we have to wait till we vote where are the state by state poll they're not giving it to us

Ah yes the state by state polls will save the day. NC, FL, and OH are tossups. PA and WI are lean D. NH, NV, and AZ are likely D all while the generic ballot is R+6. The R gains will be coming from winning Idaho with 95% of the vote and cutting Vermont to single digits