2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Hollywood]

Biden was nearing 50 percent Approvaks during the SOTU and Putin launched an undeclared war on Ukraine and the gas prices went up, Putin didn't launch the war be ause of Election Yr but it sure helps the Rs with Gas prices going to 8.00;@ gallon


As far as everything bad happening to Ds, we don't have the results yet can Rs hold their horses before they down the D's before the results are in, we Ds downed Trump because even after the shellacking in 2018 he still was under 50 even at Full Employment

But, Hollywood fails to realize Biden has the same exact Approvals as Trump, and Rs keep complaining, it takes one to know one because Trump never got above 50 percent even during his Honeymoon, Biden was at least 55 percent as soon as Trump got into office he was at 43 oercent

Total BS.  Biden was never never 50% after SOTU.  The Reaction poll of people that watched his speech was around that number, and I keeping providing you with the information.  That's a big omission given that people who watched him were more likely to approve of his speech.  That's another distinction.  They favored his statements.  Biden's approvals ratings are like -12-18 at this point, and I'm not counting your stupid YouGov poll that's was disastrous for Ds. 

Yes.  One of the wars I predicted if Biden was elected was Russia in Ukraine.  The other future war war I predicted was China into Taiwan.  The oil and gas prices aren't helping anyone.  Who the hell told Ds that we should completely do away with NG infrastructure and drilling?  Who told Biden to stop the Med -Pipeline?  Not only did he take a stand against NG on the World Stage.  He didn't do anything to stop Nord-stream and criticized the Australian Pipeline cause the Prime Minster didn't want to sign on to his stupid climate bill.  NG Production for Europe and America was pivotal in stopping Putin from invading Ukraine.  You know how I know?  It was literally a topic of debate in 2020, and the US has been training with the Ukrainians since 2014.  You think the Ukrainian is going at it alone? 

Donald Trump is under 50, but gets the second most votes in US history without even being ready to launch a mail-in campaign.  Almost pulls it off.  Donald Trump had real support in this country, and I knew that a combination of his army with a moderate candidate would devastate Democrats in future elections.  Those are real voters that support Trump and Republicans, and the people that voted for Biden were just voting against Trump cause of the constant fear-mongering.  There's a reason Ds want to put Trump in prison.  They don't want him to run again, and they don't even realize how devastating it would be for them.  Does it matter that he was under 50 with full unemployment?  The F-er would have won the election if it were held that day, or the third week in November when the vaccine was announced. 

Maybe Trump never got above 50%, but it could be that Trump was completely under-estimated by D pollsters.  It's not enough for you to be right a week before election when your polls are conveniently showing outrageously low support for and high opposition against Trump.  What pollsters did before 2020 is considered rigging in some European Countries, because they are purposely manipulating the polls to dissuade voters who become convinced that their candidate has no chance.  Look at all those polls under-estimating Trump.  There's even a CNN Poll that has Biden up 57-42 against Trump.  I know when these polls are rigged, because I read all of them.   
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls

People didn't like Trump cause he wasn't politically correct and polished.  He talks like a Blue Collar Construction Manager that won the lottery.  He's a project manager, negotiator, and self-starter with a lot of interesting policies.  The media went out of their way to take him down.  He was banned from social media and outspent 2-1 (6 to 2 Billion).  Just banning Trump is worth Billions in social media marketing dollars.  The fact that Democrats didn't beat him by 10 points is embarrassing.  They had the FBI, CIA and DOJ after him.  They even spied on his campaign and administration.


You could only win by 4 points?  This is why you guys field terrible candidates.  No awareness of the advantage that was squandered.  What Trump did was impressive.  He constantly scraped for every vote.  Did three events a day.  Called radio stations and television programs.  The guy had a work ethic that was admirable. That guy was available to the media.  That's why he won the first time.  They didn't give him coverage.  He went and did what Hillary Clinton wouldn't do. 

[Roll Roons]

Journalist/GOP operative Matthew Foldi is running in the newly competitive MD-06: https://freebeacon.com/elections/former-free-beacon-journo-matthew-foldi-launches-congressional-campaign/

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/516971-gov-desantis-map-reshapes-tampa-bay-and-eliminates-a-battleground/

Florida gerrymander causes a bit of a shuffle. Democrats now have to debate if its worth trying for FL 13th which would be Trump +7.

Bilrakis will run for the Pasco county seat instead of the Pinellas seat which would still be swingy even if a hard pull for Democrats.

It's going to be struck down so the point is moot. We probably get something like the house map

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The gender gap among Gen Z will likely converge a bit once they get married. Whether that will benefit dems or repubs remains to be seen.

https://twitter.com/a_centrism/status/1515669034599129088
More proof as to my theory about Gen Z and the gender divide. Republicans making "free speech online" an issue can make them have inroads in Gen Z males whereas Gen Z females will be hostile to that and go dem.

[MT Treasurer]

POLITICO piece on both parties' Senate targets. Notably, NH does not appear on either party's list and Democrats don’t seem to be considering NC a viable pick-up opportunity right now.

The GOP-controlled Senate Leadership Fund is reserving eight-figure ad flights starting in September to protect Republican seats in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as to take Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, the group told POLITICO. SLF also laid down millions in Alaska to protect incumbent Lisa Murkowski from a Donald Trump-inspired primary challenge.

Those GOP plans follow the Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC’s moves to set aside $106 million in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania, with most of those ads beginning in August. [...]

Notably, neither super PAC is putting money yet in New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is running for reelection. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu took a pass on challenging Hassan, and both parties will be watching the September GOP primary closely to see who emerges.

Some Republicans are feeling less and less sure about how competitive they will be in the Granite State, but Law said he feels “very confident that we will end up playing in New Hampshire.” In the interim, Republicans and Democrats alike are concentrating elsewhere.

The McConnell-connected Senate Leadership Fund will drop a whopping $37 million in Georgia this fall, $27 million in North Carolina, $24 million in Pennsylvania, $15 million each in Nevada and Wisconsin, $14 million in Arizona and $7.4 million in Alaska. The Schumer-connected Senate Majority PAC reserved $26 million in Pennsylvania, $22 million in Arizona, $21 million in Nevada, $12 million in Wisconsin and nearly $25 million in Georgia.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/18/senate-mcconnell-super-pac-134-million-ads-00025642

[ElectionsGuy]

Imagine Republicans don't target NH heavily and then they do "surprisingly well" and almost win it. Well, seems like that could reasonably happen with the way the GOP establishment does politics.

[Unelectable Bystander]

The gender gap among Gen Z will likely converge a bit once they get married. Whether that will benefit dems or repubs remains to be seen.

https://twitter.com/a_centrism/status/1515669034599129088
More proof as to my theory about Gen Z and the gender divide. Republicans making "free speech online" an issue can make them have inroads in Gen Z males whereas Gen Z females will be hostile to that and go dem.

Very big if true

[Unelectable Bystander]

POLITICO piece on both parties' Senate targets. Notably, NH does not appear on either party's list and Democrats don’t seem to be considering NC a viable pick-up opportunity right now.

The GOP-controlled Senate Leadership Fund is reserving eight-figure ad flights starting in September to protect Republican seats in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as to take Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, the group told POLITICO. SLF also laid down millions in Alaska to protect incumbent Lisa Murkowski from a Donald Trump-inspired primary challenge.

Those GOP plans follow the Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC’s moves to set aside $106 million in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania, with most of those ads beginning in August. [...]

Notably, neither super PAC is putting money yet in New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is running for reelection. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu took a pass on challenging Hassan, and both parties will be watching the September GOP primary closely to see who emerges.

Some Republicans are feeling less and less sure about how competitive they will be in the Granite State, but Law said he feels “very confident that we will end up playing in New Hampshire.” In the interim, Republicans and Democrats alike are concentrating elsewhere.

The McConnell-connected Senate Leadership Fund will drop a whopping $37 million in Georgia this fall, $27 million in North Carolina, $24 million in Pennsylvania, $15 million each in Nevada and Wisconsin, $14 million in Arizona and $7.4 million in Alaska. The Schumer-connected Senate Majority PAC reserved $26 million in Pennsylvania, $22 million in Arizona, $21 million in Nevada, $12 million in Wisconsin and nearly $25 million in Georgia.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/18/senate-mcconnell-super-pac-134-million-ads-00025642

Why protect Murkowski? We’re not talking about Susan Collins here, it’s Alaska in a Biden midterm. Any reasonable choice can hold the seat

[Minnesota Mike]

Why protect Murkowski? We’re not talking about Susan Collins here, it’s Alaska in a Biden midterm. Any reasonable choice can hold the seat

You have to protect your incumbents or nobody pays their NRSC dues.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Why protect Murkowski? We’re not talking about Susan Collins here, it’s Alaska in a Biden midterm. Any reasonable choice can hold the seat

You have to protect your incumbents or nobody pays their NRSC dues.

Fair enough

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

POLITICO piece on both parties' Senate targets. Notably, NH does not appear on either party's list and Democrats don’t seem to be considering NC a viable pick-up opportunity right now.

The GOP-controlled Senate Leadership Fund is reserving eight-figure ad flights starting in September to protect Republican seats in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as to take Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, the group told POLITICO. SLF also laid down millions in Alaska to protect incumbent Lisa Murkowski from a Donald Trump-inspired primary challenge.

Those GOP plans follow the Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC’s moves to set aside $106 million in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania, with most of those ads beginning in August. [...]

Notably, neither super PAC is putting money yet in New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is running for reelection. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu took a pass on challenging Hassan, and both parties will be watching the September GOP primary closely to see who emerges.

Some Republicans are feeling less and less sure about how competitive they will be in the Granite State, but Law said he feels “very confident that we will end up playing in New Hampshire.” In the interim, Republicans and Democrats alike are concentrating elsewhere.

The McConnell-connected Senate Leadership Fund will drop a whopping $37 million in Georgia this fall, $27 million in North Carolina, $24 million in Pennsylvania, $15 million each in Nevada and Wisconsin, $14 million in Arizona and $7.4 million in Alaska. The Schumer-connected Senate Majority PAC reserved $26 million in Pennsylvania, $22 million in Arizona, $21 million in Nevada, $12 million in Wisconsin and nearly $25 million in Georgia.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/18/senate-mcconnell-super-pac-134-million-ads-00025642

Why protect Murkowski? We’re not talking about Susan Collins here, it’s Alaska in a Biden midterm. Any reasonable choice can hold the seat

Because Mitch doesn't want any GOP Senator who is against him.

[Sub Jero]

Most important endorsement.https://mobile.twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1512445408320143376?cxt=HHwWoIC-k...

[Nyvin]

Not the best investment people...ugh

https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1516028785522532352

[Politician]

Grifters gonna grift.

[Unelectable Bystander]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

[SnowLabrador]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

I'm pretty bullish on Trump's 2024 chances, but a bad midterm for an incumbent doesn't necessarily mean losing re-election. What it does mean is that Biden will have to completely change his approach to everything in his last two years and somehow turn the political environment around.

[SnowLabrador]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

I'm pretty bullish on Trump's 2024 chances, but a bad midterm for an incumbent doesn't necessarily mean losing re-election. What it does mean is that Biden will have to completely change his approach to everything in his last two years and somehow turn the political environment around.

Except that Republicans taking the House and swing state Governorships means they can overturn the election if a Democrat wins.

[Politician]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

I'm pretty bullish on Trump's 2024 chances, but a bad midterm for an incumbent doesn't necessarily mean losing re-election. What it does mean is that Biden will have to completely change his approach to everything in his last two years and somehow turn the political environment around.

Except that Republicans taking the House and swing state Governorships means they can overturn the election if a Democrat wins.

I highly doubt the GOP would attempt to steal an election if Biden won the 2024 election decisively and the election is called by the next day. They would only try to steal an election if it was extremely close like 2020 was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

I'm pretty bullish on Trump's 2024 chances, but a bad midterm for an incumbent doesn't necessarily mean losing re-election. What it does mean is that Biden will have to completely change his approach to everything in his last two years and somehow turn the political environment around.

Except that Republicans taking the House and swing state Governorships means they can overturn the election if a Democrat wins.

Lol you are a DOOMER, DID YOU SEE THE SISOLAK NV POLL SHOWING SISOLAK UP BY 46/33 NO BUT YOU POSTED CCM DOWN BY 7 TO LAXALT, AND YOU IGNORED THE OTHER POLL SHOWING CCM UP 42/34 ON LAXALT

[2016]

To give you some sense how bad Joe Bidens Approvals are:

North Carolina/Civitas Poll

JA Pres Biden

Approve 36 %
Disapprove 56 %

Republicans lead the Generic Congressional Ballot in the State of North Carolina by 12 Points (52-40) and the Legislative Ballot by 10 Points (51-41).

And that's just ONE STATE folks! GOP might pick up a couple of House Districts in the State with these sort of Numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV poll clearly shows that D's can still win the Midterms SISOLAK is up 46)33 just like CCM is ahead of Laxalt NC IA a wave insurance seat but Beasley was down 7 50)43 not 20

[Unelectable Bystander]

A whopping 6 recent polls have R generic ballot leads (4 if you exclude right wing pollsters). The only 2 that don’t? You guessed it YouGov and Morning Consult. According to them, America at large is about as #inelastic as Nevada

[Matty]

The yougov gcb is absurd

It has been the same Margin for almost a year

[Ferguson97]

The gender gap among Gen Z will likely converge a bit once they get married. Whether that will benefit dems or repubs remains to be seen.

https://twitter.com/a_centrism/status/1515669034599129088
More proof as to my theory about Gen Z and the gender divide. Republicans making "free speech online" an issue can make them have inroads in Gen Z males whereas Gen Z females will be hostile to that and go dem.

It's astonishing how women have consistently better politics than men