PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[nini2287]

2010 could be a huge year with potentially 2 statewide open seats (Governor and Senator) and a lot of people who seem ready to make runs.  Who do you think will win run for what?

Allyson Schwartz
Pat Toomey
Bob Casey (if loses his Senate bid)
Melissa Hart
T.J. Rooney
Todd Platts

[nini2287]

As a Montco resident, I'd predict Rendell would win the county by 20 points over Castor and I'd honestly be surprised if Rendell won by any less than 15.

[nini2287]

Phil,

Maybe Castor cuts Rendell's lead in Montco decently...

but visit Bucks...and ask who Castor is...

they'll say...Bruce who?

IIRC, Castor's a graduate of my college...and no one here knows who the hell he is...

He'd do much better than Fisher and unite the local Republican parties. Look at Montco. The GOP is crumbling there. There is one figure who unites them: Bruce Castor. He'd do very well out there. I guess nini hasn't been to the GOP conventions in Montco. They really do love him.

And a good number also love Rendell.

[nini2287]

Phil,

Maybe Castor cuts Rendell's lead in Montco decently...

but visit Bucks...and ask who Castor is...

they'll say...Bruce who?

IIRC, Castor's a graduate of my college...and no one here knows who the hell he is...

He'd do much better than Fisher and unite the local Republican parties. Look at Montco. The GOP is crumbling there. There is one figure who unites them: Bruce Castor. He'd do very well out there. I guess nini hasn't been to the GOP conventions in Montco. They really do love him.

And a good number also love Rendell.

If the Republicans in Montco have to choose between Rendell and Castor, it's definetley lean towards Castor. I've seen this stuff first hand at a Montco GOP convention. He's very popular.

Well I've never been to a Montco GOP Convention (or any GOP Convention for that matter), but I stand by my prediction.

[nini2287]

Make sure you look at this analysis of why Rendell will be defeated in 2006. Now I know it's written by a Young Republican leader but there are some poll numbers included and other issues that clearly hurt Rendell.
 
http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/gsterns.htm

Why is Rendell leading the Republican challengers by 20 points then?

[nini2287]

It's never to early to think of 2010. Check out PoliticsPA's rather interesting look at potential candidates.

http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/05longlist2010.htm

Interesting list, and I have heard of a majority of those listed. But one I could not find. Who is this Jim Panyard
charecter?

The list is nutty. John Street for Governor? There was a rumor of him running for Senate awhile back but that was the biggest political joke for awhile. Now after his scandals, his chances of running are way, way down (not like they were that high anyway) and chances of winning go from 1% to 0.5%.

Charlie Dent, Congressman from the Lehigh Valley, should be up there. He's one of the main potential candidates but they have Schwartz up there when we all know she wants Senate in 2010. It's crazy.

Anyway, Panyard is the CEO of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers Association who is apparently running this year (except no one considers him a candidate, not even a minor candidate).

Street certianly has the ego to run, but I highly doubt (and highly hope) he doesn't win.

[nini2287]

Street certianly has the ego to run, but I highly doubt (and highly hope) he doesn't win.

The only way Street is going to win another office is if he makes a deal with Fattah, endorses him in 2007 and takes his House seat. There is no way he's that crazy to pursue statewide office especially after the corruption hearings. If he did run, he would have to rely just on Philly in the primary. That's it. Just the city of Philadelphia. More specifically, west Philly, North Philly and parts of Center City. He'd be wasting his time going anywhere outside of Philadelphia (even if he went to downtown Pittsburgh).

I never said Street would win, just that he would possibly run.

[nini2287]

You said you highly hope that he doesn't win.

I said both but it was separated by the parentheses.  Regardless, I think we're in agreement here that Street would be terrible candidate and a terrible governor.

Potential? Yes, but just that. I'd say it's more likely that Rendell to win by 10-12 points, and that's not biased, since I'm not that much of a Rendell fan.

Rendell wins by 10-12 points against Swann? How about Castor? I can totally understand that view in a Rendell-Piccola race or even Rendell-Scranton race but I think Rendell vs. either Swann or Castor would have a difference in the single digits.

Rendell vs. Castor, I'd give around a ten-point win to Rendell, Castor is from the wrong part of the state and won't signifcantly cut down on Rendell's margins (we've discussed that before).

Rendell vs. Swann, really depends on Swann's candidacy, I haven't seen enough of him to determine what kind of candidate he is.  If he turns out to be articulate and fairly moderate, he would have a shot at beating Rendell, although I would think a very slight (3 points or so) Rendell win would be more probable.  If Swann turns out to really not understand the issues and try to campaign on name recognition only, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rendell win by over 20 points.

[nini2287]

Rendell vs. Castor, I'd give around a ten-point win to Rendell, Castor is from the wrong part of the state and won't signifcantly cut down on Rendell's margins (we've discussed that before).

Once again, Rendell's key to victory (and very big victory in Montco) was because of the Rendell Republicans. With Castor as the nominee, there is no way Rendell wins Montco by more than ten points. The committeepeople love Castor there. They didn't care for Fisher. If Castor was the nominee, they'd be working very hard to see him victorious.

He'd also cut into Rendell's big margins in Bucks, Chester and Delaware.

Castor would probably be weaker out west but I have a feeling that Rendell is not well liked across the state. Rendell had that amazing appeal in 2002 and was able to carry some western counties (Allegheny, Greene, Beaver, etc) but it was not by much. Pair Castor with Swann or Pippy and I think he can win them over fairly easily.

The Rendell Republicans are still here, and I think most of them would vote for Rendell over Castor.  Plus some of them are still mad over the attorney general flop.  Yes, Rendell's margins in the suburbs would be down but I would say:
Bucks Rendell by 21
Chester Rendell by 10
Delaware Rendell by 22
Montgomery Rendell by 16
Philadelphia

Those margins plus Castor's weakness out west would lead to Rendell's victory.

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I don't see how the moderation helps. Rendell vs. anybody but Castor means Rendell wins the SE easily and that is where moderation (though Castor is not actually a moderate. Weird situation there.) would be helpful.

If Swann tries to run based mainly on name ID and if he is weak on the issues, Rendell wins. A twenty point Rendell win is absurd, though.

In all these cases, a Rendell win is more likely and if Swann or Castor were to win (they're the only two candidates I really can see winning this thing) I doubt it will be by more than three points.

Good point on moderation, I hadn't really thought about it.  Maybe if he ran as a populist-leaning conservative that would be better, especially in some parts of the Lehigh Valley and SWPA.

For a twenty point Rendell win, I'm talking about a complete joke of a Swann campaign, as in if he makes comments like-"I have the right experience to lead Pennsylvania.

Anyway, I have to be up early tomorrow, so I'm getting off now.

[nini2287]

Phil, isn't Scranton a household name in PA?

They have been a prominent PA family for generations, and William Scranton was Governor in the early 1960's.

I believe Ed Rendell will win re-election to a second term, but would the current Scranton be able to mount a reasonable campaign? 

Scranton could have a shot if he wasn't out there. I'm not sure whether Piccola or Scranton is the bigger joke.

Piccola is.  He changed his viewpoint on abortion just to help his lost cause in the primary.

[nini2287]

[img] Anyway, I'm so confused over who is worse now - Eddie or Catherine.

Catherine.  A horrible person .  Rendell's not THAT horrible.

[nini2287]

[img] Anyway, I'm so confused over who is worse now - Eddie or Catherine.

Catherine.  A horrible person .  Rendell's not THAT horrible.

But Catherine knows what her job is (even though she has a hard time doing it) while Eddie doesn't know if he's a Governor or a sports commentator.

She may know what her job is but she doesn't even know her boss' name.

[nini2287]

If they nominate Scranton, Santorum will just receive the few extra hours that Swann/Castor would've gotten. No way am I going to campaign at all for Scranton.

Same. Scranton or Piccola won't receive any work on my behalf and I hate to say this but I might have to skip the Gubernatorial vote if either of them is nominated.

You wouldn't even cast a write-in vote for Swann, Castor, Brown,  your cat, or anybody?

[nini2287]

My question is, who the hell is supporting Piccola???

My question is, who the hell is Piccola?

I believe he's the Republican Whip of the State Senate

[nini2287]

My question is, who the hell is supporting Piccola???

My question is, who the hell is Piccola?

I believe he's the Republican Whip of the State Senate

I don't think he was serious. If he was, that's sad. If you're going to follow politics in the state (especially the Gubernatorial election), you have know the names/positions of people running.

No, I was joking. I know who he is. That's why I put a after I said that. I am referring to how nobody knows who he is.

Isn't Piccola the guy challenging Casey in the Dem primary?

[nini2287]

My question is, who the hell is supporting Piccola???

My question is, who the hell is Piccola?

I believe he's the Republican Whip of the State Senate

I don't think he was serious. If he was, that's sad. If you're going to follow politics in the state (especially the Gubernatorial election), you have know the names/positions of people running.

No, I was joking. I know who he is. That's why I put a after I said that. I am referring to how nobody knows who he is.

Isn't Piccola the guy challenging Casey in the Dem primary?

That's Pennacchio. Why don't you guys know this? 

Pennacchio?  The wooden doll with the long nose!!

[nini2287]

Our gal - http://www.knoll2006.com/

Damn she has WAY too much makeup on.

[nini2287]

It's a lot (I didn't get passed three paragraphs) but some might still be interested - http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=2159013&type=story

I read the whole thing.  I'm going to reserve judgement on Swann until he actually comes out with a platform.

[nini2287]

I think that's the highest I've seen Piccola's numbers.  Piccola is the only Republican candidate I would definitely vote for Rendell over.  I'm still waiting to see more of what Scranton and Swann have to offer before I make an endorsement.

[nini2287]

New Keystone Poll:

Primary:

Swann 25%
Picolla 5%
Scranton 18%

General:

Rendell 46%
Picolla 37%

Rendell 51%
Scranton 34%

Rendell 53%
Swann 33%

Intersting poll..if you look at the data they oversampled Republicans.  I'd call this an outlier, no way Piccola is the only one within striking distance of Rendell.

[nini2287]

Something about being a partisan hack.

Well, beyond that. It's difficult for even the most extreme hack to see the Dems regaining control of the delegation. Is he expecting Curt Weldon or Phil English to lose? Maybe Hart?

I'm only expecting Jim Gerlach and possibly Mike Fitzpatrick.  I am also hoping for a very outside chance at Tim Murphy.  If those 3 flip, so does the delegation.  Weldon's seat may flip upon retirement, but not in 2006.  For the record (note this isn't my expected margin of victory rather their chances of winning):

Chance Jim Gerlach -> Lois Murphy: 54%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Patrick Murphy: 50%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Paul Lang: 48%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Andy Warren: 52%

I don't know much about PA 18 and I don't think it will flip.  I am hoping for a 10-9 delegation in 2006 after all is said and done.  If Weldon retires soon (before 2010), I smell the possibility of a 10-9 Dem delegation as well.  Ok, I concede Charlie Dent in PA 15 is pretty safe.

I think Gerlach is much more vulnerable than Fitz.  Even though Schrader was a weak candidate, Fitz still got about the same percentage of votes as Schwartz, and I don't think Schwartz is going anywhere, espeically now that both of them will have some seniority under their belts come 2006.  Warren might be able to appeal to some Republicans and I think he might be th ebest chance to beat Fitz

[nini2287]

Something about being a partisan hack.

Well, beyond that. It's difficult for even the most extreme hack to see the Dems regaining control of the delegation. Is he expecting Curt Weldon or Phil English to lose? Maybe Hart?

I'm only expecting Jim Gerlach and possibly Mike Fitzpatrick.  I am also hoping for a very outside chance at Tim Murphy.  If those 3 flip, so does the delegation.  Weldon's seat may flip upon retirement, but not in 2006.  For the record (note this isn't my expected margin of victory rather their chances of winning):

Chance Jim Gerlach -> Lois Murphy: 54%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Patrick Murphy: 50%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Paul Lang: 48%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Andy Warren: 52%

I don't know much about PA 18 and I don't think it will flip.  I am hoping for a 10-9 delegation in 2006 after all is said and done.  If Weldon retires soon (before 2010), I smell the possibility of a 10-9 Dem delegation as well.  Ok, I concede Charlie Dent in PA 15 is pretty safe.

I think Gerlach is much more vulnerable than Fitz.  Even though Schrader was a weak candidate, Fitz still got about the same percentage of votes as Schwartz, and I don't think Schwartz is going anywhere, espeically now that both of them will have some seniority under their belts come 2006.  Warren might be able to appeal to some Republicans and I think he might be th ebest chance to beat Fitz

That being said the Democrats have a better chance at PA 8 than the GOP does with PA 13 even with Castor.

Oh yeah, PA-13 is about as solid as PA-15 is for the GOP.

[nini2287]

Knoll already has an official, serious candidate opposing her re-election who happens to be from out west - http://www.valerieforpa.com/

good

I intend on voting for Gene Stilp in the primary-there's really no need to waste $10 million on a Lt. Gov, though I would support Valerie over Cathy any day.

[nini2287]

How the hell does Knoll have 67% name recognition?  I'm glad to see Hoeffel doing well and I hope he jumps in the race.

[nini2287]

When it looks like Swann has the committee vote won, go to plan B (by Scranton) - Keep up the talk of an open primary - http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5scrantonjan24,0,3743735.story?coll=all-news-hed

I didn't see anything about Piccola in that article - did I miss him dropping out, and if so did he endorse Swann?