PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[nini2287]

Rendell vs. Castor, I'd give around a ten-point win to Rendell, Castor is from the wrong part of the state and won't signifcantly cut down on Rendell's margins (we've discussed that before).

Once again, Rendell's key to victory (and very big victory in Montco) was because of the Rendell Republicans. With Castor as the nominee, there is no way Rendell wins Montco by more than ten points. The committeepeople love Castor there. They didn't care for Fisher. If Castor was the nominee, they'd be working very hard to see him victorious.

He'd also cut into Rendell's big margins in Bucks, Chester and Delaware.

Castor would probably be weaker out west but I have a feeling that Rendell is not well liked across the state. Rendell had that amazing appeal in 2002 and was able to carry some western counties (Allegheny, Greene, Beaver, etc) but it was not by much. Pair Castor with Swann or Pippy and I think he can win them over fairly easily.

The Rendell Republicans are still here, and I think most of them would vote for Rendell over Castor.  Plus some of them are still mad over the attorney general flop.  Yes, Rendell's margins in the suburbs would be down but I would say:
Bucks Rendell by 21
Chester Rendell by 10
Delaware Rendell by 22
Montgomery Rendell by 16
Philadelphia

Those margins plus Castor's weakness out west would lead to Rendell's victory.

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I don't see how the moderation helps. Rendell vs. anybody but Castor means Rendell wins the SE easily and that is where moderation (though Castor is not actually a moderate. Weird situation there.) would be helpful.

If Swann tries to run based mainly on name ID and if he is weak on the issues, Rendell wins. A twenty point Rendell win is absurd, though.

In all these cases, a Rendell win is more likely and if Swann or Castor were to win (they're the only two candidates I really can see winning this thing) I doubt it will be by more than three points.

Good point on moderation, I hadn't really thought about it.  Maybe if he ran as a populist-leaning conservative that would be better, especially in some parts of the Lehigh Valley and SWPA.

For a twenty point Rendell win, I'm talking about a complete joke of a Swann campaign, as in if he makes comments like-"I have the right experience to lead Pennsylvania.

Anyway, I have to be up early tomorrow, so I'm getting off now.

[Keystone Phil]

The Rendell Republicans are still here, and I think most of them would vote for Rendell over Castor.  Plus some of them are still mad over the attorney general flop.  Yes, Rendell's margins in the suburbs would be down but I would say:
Bucks Rendell by 21
Chester Rendell by 10
Delaware Rendell by 22
Montgomery Rendell by 16
Philadelphia

Those margins plus Castor's weakness out west would lead to Rendell's victory.

As I said in the past, Castor has a lot of power over Montco Republicans. I've seen it first hand. I don't think they're really mad over the AG thing. While I believe Castor was in the wrong with some things concerning his candidacy, his supporters are very loyal.

Montco, which re-elected Castor with about 75% of the vote, would not go for Rendell by sixteen points. No more than ten could Eddie win by.

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Swann vs. Rendell in the Lehigh Valley - Rendell keeps the Lehigh Valley. That area doesn't have the strong union presence it had before. If anything, it's quickly becoming an economically conservative area. I agree that it would help in SWPA.

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I think Rendell would have a lot of fun with that comment and it would probably hurt Swann a great deal but Swann could hit back with stuff about Philadelphia. It doesn't do much in the experience area but focus so much on Philly and people will think (as I'm sure many think now) "He really has been all about Philly, hasn't he?" I think this race could be the east vs. west race we've been waiting for and if Swann can energize the west, he can pull this thing off.

[Keystone Phil]

Expect a Quinnipiac poll for this race tomorrow or sometime very soon. In April, Quinnipiac released their Senate poll on the 21st and their Governor poll on the 22nd. Stay tuned.

[Lincoln Republican]

Phil, isn't Scranton a household name in PA?

They have been a prominent PA family for generations, and William Scranton was Governor in the early 1960's.

I believe Ed Rendell will win re-election to a second term, but would the current Scranton be able to mount a reasonable campaign? 

[TeePee4Prez]

Expect a Quinnipiac poll for this race tomorrow or sometime very soon. In April, Quinnipiac released their Senate poll on the 21st and their Governor poll on the 22nd. Stay tuned.

Castor will not be beating Rendell!  I repeat Castor won't beat Rendell!  Swann won't beat Rendell!  I repeat Swann will not beat Rendell!

[Jake]

Phil, isn't Scranton a household name in PA?

They have been a prominent PA family for generations, and William Scranton was Governor in the early 1960's.

I believe Ed Rendell will win re-election to a second term, but would the current Scranton be able to mount a reasonable campaign? 

Scranton could have a shot if he wasn't out there. I'm not sure whether Piccola or Scranton is the bigger joke.

[Keystone Phil]

Expect a Quinnipiac poll for this race tomorrow or sometime very soon. In April, Quinnipiac released their Senate poll on the 21st and their Governor poll on the 22nd. Stay tuned.

Castor will not be beating Rendell!  I repeat Castor won't beat Rendell!  Swann won't beat Rendell!  I repeat Swann will not beat Rendell!

Stupid hack. I repeat: Stupid hack.

Rendell is still a lock, huh Flyers? Polls keep showing his approval dropping and disapproval is rising but he's still assured a win, right?

Winfield, I agree with Jake. Scranton is loony but Piccola is the bigger joke.

Scranton actually came close to winning the 1986 Gubernatorial race but if he is our nominee in 2006, he will probably lose by about six to ten points.

[nini2287]

Phil, isn't Scranton a household name in PA?

They have been a prominent PA family for generations, and William Scranton was Governor in the early 1960's.

I believe Ed Rendell will win re-election to a second term, but would the current Scranton be able to mount a reasonable campaign? 

Scranton could have a shot if he wasn't out there. I'm not sure whether Piccola or Scranton is the bigger joke.

Piccola is.  He changed his viewpoint on abortion just to help his lost cause in the primary.

[danwxman]

Phil, isn't Scranton a household name in PA?

They have been a prominent PA family for generations, and William Scranton was Governor in the early 1960's.

I believe Ed Rendell will win re-election to a second term, but would the current Scranton be able to mount a reasonable campaign? 

Scranton could have a shot if he wasn't out there. I'm not sure whether Piccola or Scranton is the bigger joke.

Piccola is.  He changed his viewpoint on abortion just to help his lost cause in the primary.

He changed his views on just about everything. Remember, he voted for most of Rendell's agenda, including the personal income tax increase, before he decided to run for Governor against him.

Piccola wasn't half bad, considering he was a fairly moderate/centrist Republican, coming from a district that isn't nearly as conservative as the rest of central PA.

After he loses the primary, his state senate seat may be vulnerable.

[Keystone Phil]

Ratings are out.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=811


Rendell vs. Scranton - 47% - 37%
Rendell vs. Swann - 48% - 36%
Rendell vs. Piccola - 54% - 27%

Republican Primary - Swann - 32%  Scranton - 21%  Piccola - 6%  Undecided - 36%  (Time to jump into the race, Castor!)


1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

Approve                 47%
Disapprove              39%
DK/NA                   14 %   



This is the lowest approval rating Rendell has received since April 22, 2004

                      Apr 21   Feb 17  Sep 16  Jul 13  Apr 22
                      2005      2005    2004   2004*   2004**

Approve            49      51         52      54            46
Disapprove        34      33        30      30            33
DK/NA               18      16         17      15             22


This is also one of the highest disapproval ratings Rendell has had on record.


72% of voters believe Rendell has "a lot" or "some" of the responsibility for failing to reduce property taxes.


Finally, 46% believe that Rendell deserves re-election while 41% do not. This is also another low for Rendell since February.

[Jake]

Looks like Rendell's polling like Santorum only without a really good opponent. Scranton's numbers must be solely on name recognition if he's up to 37. Looks as if Swann is the best candidate unless someone bigger, Castor or Toomey!!!!, jumps into the race.

[Keystone Phil]

Looks as if Swann is the best candidate unless someone bigger, Castor or Toomey!!!!, jumps into the race.

Toomey won't. He's staying with the Club until 2010 (Senate race). Email, call, do whatever you can to get Castor in this race! "Unbeatable Eddie" is beatable!

[Keystone Phil]

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

[Speed of Sound]

This is the lowest approval rating Rendell has received since April 22, 2004

This is also one of the highest disapproval ratings Rendell has had on record.

72% of voters believe Rendell has "a lot" or "some" of the responsibility for failing to reduce property taxes.

This is also another low for Rendell since February.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm thinking Hoeffel for Lt. Governor.  Then again I wouldn't want an all Southeast ticket either so in that case I'd like to see Baker-Knoll axed in favor of Dan Onorato.

[danwxman]

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

*yawn*

I'll say it again as I've said it before...Rendell is beatable with a strong challenger and that person has yet to come forward.

[Keystone Phil]

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

*yawn*

I'll say it again as I've said it before...Rendell is beatable with a strong challenger and that person has yet to come forward.

The campaign hasn't really even started. All Lynn Swann would have to do is a) win the primary and b) not make himself look like a complete fool.

[Speed of Sound]

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

*yawn*

I'll say it again as I've said it before...Rendell is beatable with a strong challenger and that person has yet to come forward.

The campaign hasn't really even started. All Lynn Swann would have to do is a) win the primary and b) not make himself look like a complete fool.

c) really attack Rendell on property taxes. or do only people here in Berks care?

[danwxman]

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

*yawn*

I'll say it again as I've said it before...Rendell is beatable with a strong challenger and that person has yet to come forward.

The campaign hasn't really even started. All Lynn Swann would have to do is a) win the primary and b) not make himself look like a complete fool.

He's good on paper...African-American and from the West. But from what I've seen so far I am not impressed. The campaign hasn't started but he's already said some stupid things:

"I don't have any ideas, you don't need ideas"

"I don't have a plan"

People across the state are unsatisfied with Rendell, but they are not going to vote for a guy with no idea or plan. And that is what a lot of Republicans in this area have told me. They are pissed at Rendell but you can bet some lightweight like Swann is not going to get their vote either.

[Jake]

No, it's all over. If the election was in August, Rendell could lose on property tax reform/Act 72, but since it isn't for another 16 months, it won't hurt him as bad.

BTW, does anyone have either a map of districts that approved Act 72 or a list of those that did?

[danwxman]

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

*yawn*

I'll say it again as I've said it before...Rendell is beatable with a strong challenger and that person has yet to come forward.

The campaign hasn't really even started. All Lynn Swann would have to do is a) win the primary and b) not make himself look like a complete fool.

c) really attack Rendell on property taxes. or do only people here in Berks care?

I don't think people in Pennsylvania care anymore. They just don't expect relief...ever. If the Republican nominee promises property tax relief, they are going to look like an idiot and nobody will take him seriously.

[Speed of Sound]

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

*yawn*

I'll say it again as I've said it before...Rendell is beatable with a strong challenger and that person has yet to come forward.

The campaign hasn't really even started. All Lynn Swann would have to do is a) win the primary and b) not make himself look like a complete fool.

c) really attack Rendell on property taxes. or do only people here in Berks care?

If the Republican nominee promises property tax relief, they are going to look like an idiot and nobody will take him seriously.

except for my Dad, who will praise him 24/7 until Election Day. (My Dad is a very conservative Democrat)

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think people in Pennsylvania care anymore. They just don't expect relief...ever. If the Republican nominee promises property tax relief, they are going to look like an idiot and nobody will take him seriously.

They don't care? Look at the poll. It's one of the top issues right now and people believe Rendell was the failure.

You really hurt yourself with this. The analysts and the Dems on this board (even some Republicans) went on and on about how strong Eddie is. The fact of the matter is that he is not. People don't like him. He'll have his cash but he's dead out west (no Lt. Gov. candidate can save him) and if the west is energized enough to remove him (I think they're realizing they fell for the superstar in 2002 but it really wasn't worth it at all), then the west can beat the east in this one.

[Jake]

This is the best I could find. It includes 12 districts that eventually opted out. Red is yes, yellow no.



Main concentrations are the Northeast, most likely because of the slots at the race track, plus suburban Pittsburgh. The Pittsburgh School District did not approve Act 72 and barely any in the Southeast did either.

[Moooooo]

I think his numbers look rather solid.  If he runs a good campaign he should be alright.  None of his possible opponents are breaking 40%.