2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Adam Griffin]

>Unprecedentedly non-white electorate
>Unprecedentedly old electorate
>Unprecedentedly college-educated electorate
>Same D-R advantage as 2016

These prelim exit polls are garbage. Ignore them.

[Adam Griffin]

Florida's gone for Biden. There's like nothing left in the urban centers and Central Time zone is gonna net Trump 150-200k votes.

[Adam Griffin]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

[Adam Griffin]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Pretty Cool... can you just explain what we are looking at exactly by %?

Swing map from '16?

Yep!

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, I don't know much discussion there's been, but...Biden's favored in Georgia at this point. If he wins 70% of what's left, he wins by 20k votes (not including any mail ballots that arrive by Friday and/or provisionals, both of which skew heavily D).

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896

Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

Yes, Georgia flipping in a Dem <5 environment is impressive for Biden.

Imagine if it had actually been Dem +10.

We would have gotten FL and N.C. that’s about it.

[Adam Griffin]

Even if Trump actually did get an injunction to stop votes coming in after Election Day, it doesn't change the writing on the wall in PA. It probably means he keeps NC and maybe GA, though.

GA doesn't accept ballots that arrive after election day anyway.

Nope. Court ruling stated that for this election, any ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by tomorrow will be counted. No idea why nobody is talking about these (or the provisionals, for that matter), which combined will likely be north of 20k votes and 70% Democratic.

[Adam Griffin]

Even if Trump actually did get an injunction to stop votes coming in after Election Day, it doesn't change the writing on the wall in PA. It probably means he keeps NC and maybe GA, though.

GA doesn't accept ballots that arrive after election day anyway.

Nope. Court ruling stated that for this election, any ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by tomorrow will be counted. No idea why nobody is talking about these (or the provisionals, for that matter), which combined will likely be north of 20k votes and 70% Democratic.

In GA?

Source?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/politics/georgia-absentee-ballots-deadline-order/index.html

[Adam Griffin]

"Is it over?"
"At long last."

[Adam Griffin]

Biden's going to net another thousand or so out of Clayton.

The only place left where Trump could possibly net with mail ballots is Floyd - and he'll net approximately 10 votes from there max.

Of the rest, there's about 5500 mail ballots in Cobb and Gwinnett (65-70% D) and 2500 in Laurens and Taylor (60% D). That'll net Biden another 2k.

Provisionals - if following historical patterns - will net Biden another 5k.

UOCAVA ballots should lean in Biden's direction (I'd bet on 60% D). So another 2-4k net for Biden there.

Biden's going to win Georgia by 10,000 votes or more when everything is said and done.

[Adam Griffin]

After GA flipped:

https://twitter.com/selshoax/status/1324634028515889153

[Adam Griffin]

How come UOCAVA lean Biden; is it case of overseas citizens & officers cancelling out the assumed pro-Trump margin among enlisted troops?

Biden's going to net another thousand or so out of Clayton.

The only place left where Trump could possibly net with mail ballots is Floyd - and he'll net approximately 10 votes from there max.

Of the rest, there's about 5500 mail ballots in Cobb and Gwinnett (65-70% D) and 2500 in Laurens and Taylor (60% D). That'll net Biden another 2k.

Provisionals - if following historical patterns - will net Biden another 5k.

UOCAVA ballots should lean in Biden's direction (I'd bet on 60% D). So another 2-4k net for Biden there.

Biden's going to win Georgia by 10,000 votes or more when everything is said and done.

Yep. Military will likely be pro-Trump but not by as much as in other states (see: black voters), and will be a minority of the total UOCAVA vote in all likelihood.

Just as an example, we got a Forsyth County UOCAVA dump several hours ago and it was 67% Biden.

[Adam Griffin]

How come UOCAVA lean Biden; is it case of overseas citizens & officers cancelling out the assumed pro-Trump margin among enlisted troops?

Biden's going to net another thousand or so out of Clayton.

The only place left where Trump could possibly net with mail ballots is Floyd - and he'll net approximately 10 votes from there max.

Of the rest, there's about 5500 mail ballots in Cobb and Gwinnett (65-70% D) and 2500 in Laurens and Taylor (60% D). That'll net Biden another 2k.

Provisionals - if following historical patterns - will net Biden another 5k.

UOCAVA ballots should lean in Biden's direction (I'd bet on 60% D). So another 2-4k net for Biden there.

Biden's going to win Georgia by 10,000 votes or more when everything is said and done.

Yep. Military will likely be pro-Trump but not by as much as in other states (see: black voters), and will be a minority of the total UOCAVA vote in all likelihood.

Just as an example, we got a Forsyth County UOCAVA dump several hours ago and it was 67% Biden.

If the provisional votes are all from election day in person voters, they'd likely heavily favor Trump though.  Still, the mail in votes that need to be 'cured' might even that out somewhat.

Provisional votes in GA are always 65-75% D, because they're very heavily concentrated in urban areas.

[Adam Griffin]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Trump would have won the state by a narrow margin (15k votes or so) if he had done as well as Kemp in rural/small-town GA (especially in the North and Southeast), right? There were clearly some Kemp/Biden voters.

Yes. This map is 36 hours old (explains Atlanta and Savannah "swinging R") and I'll update it tomorrow, but it frankly speaks to...well, perhaps I'll just let people draw their own conclusions for now.

[Adam Griffin]

In any game in which they don't play Kentucky from now on, I will root for Georgia.

I will also root for the Falcons, Hawks, Braves, you name it.

These motherf--kers ACTUALLY PULLED OFF A LAST MINUTE COMEBACK FOR ONCE.

If that doesn't say "2020," I don't know what does.

C'MON 2020, LET'S GET SICKENING

[Adam Griffin]

For anybody who's interested, I've done my first round of #analysis/maps on what happened in Georgia trend-wise in the Georgia Megathread.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's to hoping Biden gets some hairplugs reinstalled and those liver spots lasered off!