IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[RINO Tom]

Let's rumble.

I should be nervous, but I'm confident you guys will nominate a corrupt doofus.

[RINO Tom]

More like the anti-people's Pat. I would endorse a dog over him.

When you endorse a candidate, is there like a ceremony?  Like, do you invite people over, post it on YouTube?...  Help me out here.

[RINO Tom]

IL continues to lose population faster than any other state, primarily due to outmigration to other states (over 500K net loss since 2010). The Gallup poll of 2013 identified that 50% of IL residents would move out if they could - the highest percent in the US. A similar poll this fall from the Paul Simon Pubic Policy Institute put the percentage who want to leave IL at 47%. This attitude was present under Quinn, and hasn't changed.

Rauner will say he has a plan to change that, but the Dems have blocked it. He does have a plan, and it is bold and far-reaching, and parts may not even work, but its a plan. His plan involves a lot of anti-union elements as well as curbs on legislative power. Those parts are toxic to a lot of the Dems. So far under Rauner the Dems have only proposed the same sorts of programs and spending they did under Quinn - ie no change as far as many voters are concerned. But the poll numbers say change is demanded, and for the first time in most people's memory the Pubs picked up legislative seats in a presidential year.

Who ever the Dems nominate for Gov is going to have to come to grips with the facts above. They don't have to espouse the Rauner agenda, but they can't rehash Quinn either if they plan to succeed. They are going to have to be as bold as Rauner and risk some pushback from key groups. But there are Dem models out there from MN to CA that a candidate could run on. So far, none have dared. That could cost them in 2018.

Yep.  In local politics, Illinois is not this safe Democratic state.  Period.  How many elections do we need to see for this to be accepted?  Does it take outvoting Cook with the collar counties and most of Downstate?  Of course.  But that's just the way it is in this state, as Cook County voters would vote for a bowl of hair (credit to Veep) with a D next to its name.

Illinois voters of all types are angry with how terribly the state has been run and the rising expenses they're facing because of it.  If they choose to reject Rauner's more conservative plan to try to fix it (not that it ever got a chance from the legislature, which refused to budge an inch), and they might, they're only going to choose a Democratic plan if it isn't the "same old, same old."  As you said, we're losing population to surrounding states with lower taxes and lower cost of living.  It won't matter if we have a world class city and several cool, smaller cities down state; we need to remain solvent and functioning as a state to be attractive to businesses and individuals, and I honestly think that if Democrats can't put forward a convincing vision of their own, I think Rauner gets another shot.

[RINO Tom]

This is Illinois, though and in an anti-Trump wave is felt it will be in Obama's homestate.

Illinois has felt the biggest dip in jobs and Rauner hasn't done much to quell the dissatifaction of the job market or declining wages in Illinois.

It's almost as if there's an army of morons standing in his way!

[RINO Tom]

I'm sure Governor Rauner's veto of the largest tax increase in Illinois history will somehow hurt him in his re-election bid.

"Illinois families don't deserve to have more of the hard-earned money taken from them when the legislature has done little to restore confidence in government or grow jobs. Illinois families deserve more jobs, property tax relief and term limits. But tonight they got more of the same," Rauner said, in part, in his statement.

Illinois continues to dig its own grave.

[RINO Tom]

I'm sure Governor Rauner's veto of the largest tax increase in Illinois history will somehow hurt him in his re-election bid.

"Illinois families don't deserve to have more of the hard-earned money taken from them when the legislature has done little to restore confidence in government or grow jobs. Illinois families deserve more jobs, property tax relief and term limits. But tonight they got more of the same," Rauner said, in part, in his statement.

Illinois continues to dig its own grave.

Doesn't Illinois have some pretty serious debt and unfunded liabilities issues? Granted I don't know the entire situation behind this tax increase but in IL's current situation, it's not hard to say it is justified if the new taxes are are least mostly put towards those problems.

Sure, but this is where ideology will get into it: IL is losing residents and businesses BECAUSE it's an economically stagnant state with some of the highest taxes in the country, and rather than crack down on spending (I read one time IL has the highest paid public employees in the nation, and they still constantly demand more, LOL) or the ABSURD teacher's pensions, the only answer is ever to raise taxes.  Never mind that the tax increase will hit Illinoisans' personal incomes or that it is literally going to be met with zero reduction in spending, it's also exacerbating (in my humble opinion) the state's biggest problem: businesses are leaving for greener pastures, and our politicians' reaction is all too often to show them the finger and increase taxes on the ones who remain loyal to the state.  Caterpillar has been headquartered in Peoria for decades, and after years of threatening to leave for Indiana or another more business-friendly state, what was Illinois' solution?  Have an economically thriving Chicago suburb bribe them to move there instead, providing a mini-death blow to Peoria.  It's just a messed up state, and the people who could do anything about it don't care as long as their friends are taken care of or their immediate community is doing okay, and those folks outnumber the ones who want any sort of change.  You can disagree with the methods to fix it, but it's just heartbreaking to watch my home state crumble and for anyone in their right mind to think that this tax increase alone will not be hugely detrimental, let alone actually help.

[RINO Tom]

Republicans in the House have got to be worried about the coming primary challenges should they support this veto override.

Not usually one to support primaries from the right, but God damn.  Watching that live broadcast today was sickening.

[RINO Tom]

Republicans in the House have got to be worried about the coming primary challenges should they support this veto override.

Not usually one to support primaries from the right, but God damn.  Watching that live broadcast today was sickening.

If you read my post from July 3, how would you close the gap between expenses and revenue? What was passed cut roughly 3 G$ from current spending and raised 5 G$ in taxes. Cutting much more than 3 G$ either violates judicial orders or cut school funding causing property taxes to rise.

muon, you are much wiser on this issue than I am, and if you honestly think this is the right approach, I'm inclined to believe you, especially since I know for a fact you deal with the Illinois Democratic caucus, and frankly you and your party members are the only hope in saving that state right now.  There is too much entrenched power on the other side of the aisle for any reform.  However, whether it's property tax, income tax, sales tax or something else, Illinois taxpayers have been given the spiel time and time again that in order to reduce our debt problem and *fix the state* (or at least take a measly first step in that direction), we need to raise revenues, and you just gave the argument that if we don't raise revenues, things will get worse.  IL citizens, very understandably, are infuriated that THIS is the compromise we must make.  We must further hurt our tax base so that we can *pass a budget*, but we can't further go without a budget to protect our tax base?  It just worsens the impression that the state legislature is so entrenched in "business as usual" and is totally oblivious to people's actual impressions of Illinois and what's wrong with it.

I get that in your position, you actually have to come up with the answers, and that's gotta be tough.  The obvious first step, at least to me, would be to change the absolutely asinine pension language in our state's constitution, but it sounds like that will be pretty hard.  I guess my question is, with the passing of this budget, what will change next year or in two years?  Rauner has somehow become a bad guy for being elected to finally crack down on the teacher's unions and all of the other tax-and-spend nonsense that has gotten IL into this mess, but a lot of people are starting to wonder if it's just so broken that it's not worth putting a bandaid on.  Why not take the attitude that we're taxed enough, and nothing should be added to that burden until spending is SERIOUSLY reformed and the state's economy improved?  Honestly asking.  Surely, as a state Republican, you'd prefer that approach, all things being equal.

[RINO Tom]

Thanks for the response.  There are clearly a lot of obstacles, and it's just sad to see.  According to the Census, there were like 3 counties in the whole state that didn't lose population in the whole state, and only one was Downstate (Champaign), between 2015 and 2016.  I just wonder if there will ever reach a point where state Democrats will decide it's more important to stop the bleeding than to "not budge."  I know that sounds hackish putting all of the blame there, but they're the ones blocking attempts at serious reform to how this state has been run for the last several years, pure and simple.

P.S.  Still sad I didn't see your message to meet up in time before the Iowa caucuses last year!

P.P.S.  You weren't one of the guys giving the fiery speeches in Springfield yesterday on the live feed, were ya??

[RINO Tom]

I thank governor Rauner for standing up to the people of Illinois, who can't afford a 32% tax increase.

Thanks to that tax hike from 'slightly less than everywhere else' to 'around average,' I can now call 911 if I need to. I appreciate your concern but I'm honestly fine.

It is not a tax hike of 32%. It is an increase from 3.75% to 4.95%. While technically correct to call it a '32% hike,' it does not accurately reflect the situation. At all.

You're asking Republicans to be honest, man. It's not worth it.

Hope Rauner gets curb stomped.

It actually exactly reflects the situation.  You pay a 32% higher income tax... how is that misleading?  What's the "honest" explanation?  If you make 50,000 your tax goes up from 1,875 to 2,475... Maybe if this is confusing for Democrats, it explains why they continue to screw us over again and again.

Hey, as long as they STAND UP TO RAUNER, who gives a shlt about the families of Illinois?

[RINO Tom]

Dunno what's more delusional, Democrats who thought Lincoln coukd survive in 2010 or Republicans who think Rauner will survive an election in Illinois with Trump at 35% approvals.

Uh, pretty clearly the ones who thought an unpopular President wouldn't affect a federal race rather than a gubernational one...?

[RINO Tom]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

It obviously remains to be seen, but I think it's highly likely Illinoisans decide their governor vote based on their frustration with state politics rather than national ones.  The question will be whether the GOP can effectively paint a (clearly accurate, IMO) picture of Rauner being the person we elected for change and the same ole legislature standing in his way in favor of business as usual (the same business as usual that has Illinois in turmoil).  If the GOP can effectively due that, Rauner will win re-election and they'll make gains in the state legislature, regardless of Trump.  I'm depressingly pessemistic that this can be done, but if Rauner loses it won't be just because of Trump.  It will be because Democrats were successful enough at painting RAUNER as the problem (which, LOL...).

[RINO Tom]

Bliss drops Ramirez-Rosa from his ticket

God dammit.

I am convinced that Illinois wi never have even a halfway decent governor.

It does, the voters will just be dumb enough to vote him out and start over.

[RINO Tom]

The radical left has never been a reliable ally in the fight for human rights

Uh, then who are the "reliable all[ies]" of the human rights movement? I don't see how the people with the deepest-seated commitment to egalitarian principles are anything but the primary allies of the humans rights cause.

Anti-semites don't really have a deep-seated commitment to egalitarian principles.

Us liberals who actually support universal human rights are the good guys. The radical left is a good ally at times but discussions like this is a useful reminder that it can't be relied upon. Currently, the radical left cannot be relied upon to protect Jews, for example.

It's almost as if every single ideology has groups that they're less than tolerant of and there isn't one (like "liberals") that is totally innocent on the issue of tolerance.

[RINO Tom]

Since Drury is no longer in the race, I have decided to support Rauner's re-election.

I'll alert the press.

[RINO Tom]

Rauner is toast because of his abortion vote. Republicans will not turn out to vote for him in a Midterm.

Holy shlt, that is not why is toast ... heck, his abortion views probably helped him get elected in the first place.

[RINO Tom]

Rauner is toast because of his abortion vote. Republicans will not turn out to vote for him in a Midterm.

Holy shlt, that is not why is toast ... heck, his abortion views probably helped him get elected in the first place.

He would have been toast either way, but he shouldn't expect voters who care about the issue to cast their ballot for him.

Why not?  They did before.  Sometimes you take what you can get.  I think there are tons of adamantly pro-choice people in West Virginia who voted for Joe Manchin each time.  (I know you think he is "fake pro-life" or whatever, but your standards are ... well, somewhat unreasonable from a neutral perspetive, IMO.)

[RINO Tom]

Why not?  They did before.  Sometimes you take what you can get.  I think there are tons of adamantly pro-choice people in West Virginia who voted for Joe Manchin each time.  (I know you think he is "fake pro-life" or whatever, but your standards are ... well, somewhat unreasonable from a neutral perspetive, IMO.)

Manchin's voting record speaks for itself, I'd say. He's "pro-life" the same way Capito is "pro-choice".

Back on topic, though... I agree that Rauner is probably the lesser of two evils, but in IL that's really not saying much (I'd vote for a third-party candidate if I lived there). And if he's such a "reasonable" Republican and a "good fit" for his state, why is his approval rating so low? If you ask me, he'll end up like Mark Kirk, even if Pritzker wins the D nomination.

Because he is running in a deeply Democratic state that is so broken that it needs to hit rock bottom before it's fixed.  Democrats in the legislature won't budge and he refuses to govern like a Baker or Hogan because, well, that wouldn't address Illinois' problems.  Rauner will be defeated but not because of some immense flaw in him as a politician, I don't think ... he said he'd come in and implement conservative reform to try to move Illinois in a different direction; he did, and SHOCKER the voters don't like that either.  At this rate, there won't be nearly as many voters in 20 years, so maybe the politics will adjust accordingly.

[RINO Tom]

Rooting for Ives (Rauner is terrible and deserves to go down badly, the general is Safe D either way, Ives’ floor (not her ceiling) isn’t lower than Rauner’s, etc.), Lipinski and Quinn.

Is your issue with Rauner that he's pro-choice, or...?

[RINO Tom]

Hold up, Rauner getting 61% in Peoria (downstate). WTF is happening?

This whole site thinks of Downstate Illinois as Alabama attached to Chicago because it tends to be Republican ... not true at all.

[RINO Tom]

Gov Rauner calls for reinstatement of death penalty in Illinois for murder of police and mass murder.  Great idea!

https://www.google.com/amp/abc7chicago.com/amp/politics/rauner-calls-for-narrow-reinstatement-of-death-penalty-in-illinois/3472009/

Such a moderate hero he is. Good thing I didn’t support him for the general.

Rauner is a fake moderate. He's in fact a pro-choice version of Scott Walker.

For the millionth time, moderates aren't moderate on everything.  If any Democrat even pays lip service to being pro-life, he's a DINO on this site, but to be a moderate Republican you can't be right of center on anything??  LOL.  Rauner is a socially moderate Republican, and any non-moron can see that.

Our state deserves what it gets.   More taxes and less population is the unavoidable future for Illinois as long as Democrats control the government (most importantly the legislature).

[RINO Tom]

Gov Rauner calls for reinstatement of death penalty in Illinois for murder of police and mass murder.  Great idea!

https://www.google.com/amp/abc7chicago.com/amp/politics/rauner-calls-for-narrow-reinstatement-of-death-penalty-in-illinois/3472009/

Such a moderate hero he is. Good thing I didn’t support him for the general.

Rauner is a fake moderate. He's in fact a pro-choice version of Scott Walker.

For the millionth time, moderates aren't moderate on everything.  If any Democrat even pays lip service to being pro-life, he's a DINO on this site, but to be a moderate Republican you can't be right of center on anything??  LOL.  Rauner is a socially moderate Republican, and any non-moron can see that.

Our state deserves what it gets.   More taxes and less population is the unavoidable future for Illinois as long as Democrats control the government (most importantly the legislature).

The GOP needs to just give up on the state and allow it to self-destruct. There are fights that are worth fighting and others that aren't, and Illinois is not worth fighting for at this point. It's a lost cause.

Maybe politically, but I was born in Illinois.  I love Illinois.  To see it crumbling just so it can be proved to the world just how horribly the Democratic Party manages things is not even close to worth it to me. :/

[RINO Tom]

It's not like Republicans have fixed IL. Rauner may be a WOKE social moderate, but he did an effing godawful job managing the state. He's easily one of the worst governors in America. You can blame Madigan all you want, and I dislike Madigan too, but you look like a pathetic leader by 24/7 complaining about Madigan. Rauner didn't fix the budget crisis. He is a weak, ineffectual leader and will lose by 15-20% against an awful, sleazy democratic candidate this November.

He is bottom 5 worst governors in America. Almost as bad as Malloy and Fallin. Total loser.

What exactly do you think Governor Rauner should have done differently?  Tried to change absolutely nothing about the joke legislature's fiscal plans, directly breaking his promise to the voters?  Our unions NEED to be curtailed.  He SHOULD blame Madigan, the man who has been driving this state to ruin for years.  It ISN'T his fault that the legislature won't budge on any of the stuff he wants to do to, ya know, actually change something.

[RINO Tom]

It's not like Republicans have fixed IL. Rauner may be a WOKE social moderate, but he did an effing godawful job managing the state. He's easily one of the worst governors in America. You can blame Madigan all you want, and I dislike Madigan too, but you look like a pathetic leader by 24/7 complaining about Madigan. Rauner didn't fix the budget crisis. He is a weak, ineffectual leader and will lose by 15-20% against an awful, sleazy democratic candidate this November.

He is bottom 5 worst governors in America. Almost as bad as Malloy and Fallin. Total loser.

But remember! Even though he's the incumbent, he's not in charge.

All he has in terms of power are flannel shirts, duct tape, and a motorcycle.

Again, what would you guys have done differently?  He got elected to actually CHANGE how this broken state government operates, and he was opposed at every meaningful turn by the morons in the legislature who helped create this mess.  Now, he's going to lose his job while they all keep theirs and work with a Democratic governor to make it even worse.  Yay, Illinois!

[RINO Tom]

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