2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Gass3268]

Additional candidates added to the DCCC's Red to Blue:



Going all in on Randy Bryce:

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/976849960909131776

[Gass3268]

Beto O'Rourke raised $6.7 million on 141,000 contributions in the first quarter: https://www.texastribune.org/2018/04/03/orourke-says-he-raised-staggering-67m-first-quarter-2018/

He's raising money almost like an incumbant. That's freaking nuts.

[Gass3268]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/04/05/shalala-reports-1-17m-haul-in-3-weeks-351024

Donna Shalala reports fundraising $1.17 million in 3 weeks.

I love Donna for reasons no one here will understanding (Badger for life), but isn't this a place where Dems really need to run a young Cuban-American Democrat?

[Gass3268]

Holy sh**t.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/983713078578642944

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/983714301662855170

The Northeast is going to be bloodbath for Republicans, New Jersey and Pennslyvania espeically.

[Gass3268]

Very poor numbers for Josh Hawley:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/984032293479215110

[Gass3268]

Out of pocket, but Cruz only raised about half of what Beto did over the last quarter.

[Gass3268]

Ossoff is making bank off his donor list:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/986728924930543616

[Gass3268]

New Crystal Ball rating changes coming tomorrow in response to AZ-08:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/989161228437282816

[Gass3268]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

[Gass3268]

I'm working on a master ratings spreadsheet and I currently have: Crystal Ball, Cook, Insider Elections, CNN and The Crosstab. Does anyone know of any others that I could be missing?

[Gass3268]

I'm working on a master ratings spreadsheet and I currently have: Crystal Ball, Cook, Insider Elections, CNN and The Crosstab. Does anyone know of any others that I could be missing?

RRH also does ratings. Partisan site but the ratings are solid.

I'll add them too! Thank you.

[Gass3268]

I'm working on a master ratings spreadsheet and I currently have: Crystal Ball, Cook, Insider Elections, CNN and The Crosstab. Does anyone know of any others that I could be missing?

RRH also does ratings. Partisan site but the ratings are solid.

I'll add them too! Thank you.

Similarly, I'm not sure if DKE does ratings. Their coverage and election data tends to be solid...but god is everything else horrible/cringworthy. If RRH is going in, then they should as well if they got 'real' ratings.

I looked and it doesn't look like DKE has done them in the past, but has yet to do them for this cycle yet.

[Gass3268]

Here's a little something I've been working on:

Aggretate Midterm House Projections Spreadsheet

Let me know if there are any other official ratings out there that I'm missing. Also feel free to provide a comment if I've made a mistake entering the data. The plan is to do an update every Saturday or Sunday until the Midterms.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/994060696668327936

SAD!

He also moved NC-09 to Toss Up. So it all evens out.

[Gass3268]

Inside elections shift 5 more races toward the dems http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/house-ratings-changes-open-seats

These were long overdue (especially NJ-2)

They are clearly the most (small c) conservative of all of the rating groups, with the Crystal Ball being the most liberal.

[Gass3268]

Cook’s thoughts, and this is a good example of how to analyze the uptick in approvals for Trump without Limo-style “Blue wave totes dead u guyz” Dem-disarray nonsense. Fair and even handed.

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/glimmers-hope-gop

Very good article. To me this is the crux of it:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

Another shift to Rs -->

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/996714200234897409

Another? This was the first shift toward the Republicans in any of the qualitative projections that I can remember.

[Gass3268]

Another shift to Rs -->

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/996714200234897409

Another? This was the first shift toward the Republicans in any of the qualitative projections that I can remember.

OH-16 shifted from Likely R to Safe R as well.

Forgot about that one, thank you

[Gass3268]

G. Elliot Morris is updating his model to finally include the new PA map and to include special election data.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996818988687659013

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996819413142851585

[Gass3268]

I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.

I found that odd too, but it has nothing to do with his open personal opinion.

[Gass3268]

Inside Elections (Roll Call) changes 19 races towards the Democrats:

Solid Republican -> Likely Republican
- Arkasnas 2
- California 4
- Georgia 7
- Indiana 2
- Michigan 7
- New Jesey 3
- Ohio 1
- Ohio 14
- Texas 21
- West Virginia 3

Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- Maine 2
- New Mexico 2
- Virginia 7

Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- New Jersey 7

Tilt Republican to Toss Up
- Iowa 1
- Pennslyvania 17

Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
- New Jersey 5

Likely Democatic to Solid Democratic
- California 7
- Florida 13

Source

[Gass3268]

Frankly I think the biggest risk for R v R is CA-48, which is why the DCCC came out for Rouda. I’d be surprised if there was a lockout in more than one district, and I think all three will be D v R in the end, but there should have been culling done earlier so nobody had to break the glass now.

I really don’t know why there hasn’t been a “grassroots” *cough* *cough* *wink* *wink* to get rid of the jungle primary.

[Gass3268]

Democrats chance of winning the House surges to over 60% in The Crosstab

Before anyone asks, this is a result of mixing in special election data and the new PA map.

[Gass3268]

So how are Democrats handwaving the significant shift toward Republicans on the generic ballot? Just by hoping that a handful of open-seat special elections are reflective of November election results? It seems that people here are unwilling to consider any possibility that does not involve the sky being the limit for Democratic gains (as if you have learned nothing from 2014 and 2016)

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/998998676587581441

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/998999572293791744

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/999020344794116098

[Gass3268]

PA-10 Toss up to Lean R - Reasonable
VA-10 Lean D to Toss up - LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
FL-25 Lean R to Likely R - Disagree, Dems got a good candidate here
FL-26 Lean D to Tossup - Ehhhhhhhhhh
MN-7 likely D to Lean D - Reasonable
NE-2 Toss up to Lean R - Reasonable
CA-38 Lean D to Toss up - Reasonable, until after the primary, if the Democrats get one through this needs to move back
CA-49 Lean D to Toss up - Reasonable, until after the primary, if the Democrats get one through this needs to move back