2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Young Conservative]

LOL! What are they going to do? Hire more consultants?

The Republican establishment spent $150 million on Please Clap so he could finish 7th in Iowa or whatever. I'm quaking in my boots.

The democrats spent about a billion trying to elect a washed up, out of touch, career politician. Instead, they lost to a gaffe machine billionaire who never held elected office.

That proves their point, you know.

Their point was the GOP is bad at picking candidates, but it isn’t like Democrats are better.

No, the others are correct. My point was that $30 million Adelson gave is useless because the Republican establishment has proven time and again they don't spend money effectively.

That's literally what I said your point was....and your point doesnt matter because the Democratic establishment is just as bad at picking candidates.....

[Bidenworth2020]

LOL! What are they going to do? Hire more consultants?

The Republican establishment spent $150 million on Please Clap so he could finish 7th in Iowa or whatever. I'm quaking in my boots.

The democrats spent about a billion trying to elect a washed up, out of touch, career politician. Instead, they lost to a gaffe machine billionaire who never held elected office.

That proves their point, you know.

Their point was the GOP is bad at picking candidates, but it isn’t like Democrats are better.

No, the others are correct. My point was that $30 million Adelson gave is useless because the Republican establishment has proven time and again they don't spend money effectively.

That's literally what I said your point was....and your point doesnt matter because the Democratic establishment is just as bad at picking candidates.....

incumbent senators todd akin, christine odonell, mourdock, angle, etc approve this messavge

[Virginiá]

No, the others are correct. My point was that $30 million Adelson gave is useless because the Republican establishment has proven time and again they don't spend money effectively.

That's literally what I said your point was....and your point doesnt matter because the Democratic establishment is just as bad at picking candidates.....

He clarified his own words though. Plus, spending money inefficiently is not the same as picking bad candidates (although Republicans have blown their share of winnable races, obviously).

I'd counter that money in general has very real limits in elections, particularly with candidates who are well-known. The more high-profile the race, the less effect the money has. And since Scott has been in two statewide elections now and spent considerable sums of money, we can tell that for whatever the reasons, it doesn't seem to help him that much. He outspent Sink by a lot in 2010 and he still barely won, and in a GOP wave year too. Odds are that even if he's more popular now, that would be countered by what will probably be a strong Democratic year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

April fundraising for GA-06 and GA-07 candidates from the AJC. 

GA-06:

Karen Handel (R, incumbent) raised $66K in April and had almost $800K on hand.  She faces no primary opposition.

On the Democratic side, gun control activist Lucy McBath raised about $45K and had $70K on hand, but is being aided by spending from advocacy group Everytown for Gun Safety.  Businessman Kevin Abel raised $93K and had $11K on hand.  Former newscaster Bobby Kaple raised about $45K and had about $300K on hand. 

GA-07:

Rob Woodall (R, incumbent) raised something under $66K and had $483K on hand.  His only primary challenger, ex-Marine Shane Hazel, had $8500. 

Among Democrats, GSU professor Carolyn Bourdeaux raised $66K and had $134K on hand.  Businessman David Kim raised $10K and loaned his campaign $175K, ending the month with $45K on hand.  Attorney Ethan Pham raised $17K and and loaned his campaign $45K, ending with $92K on hand.

[LimoLiberal]

Wow. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/14/california-republicans-midterms-walters-584289

Politico: A GOP surprise: House midterm hopes rise in blue California

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[LimoLiberal]

Looks like it's "Dems in Disarray" day for the national media.

[KingSweden]

Looks like it's "Dems in Disarray" day for the national media.

It seems coordinated.

Also LOL at Politico using Mimi Walters, the safest OC Republican, as their proof of “Dems in Disarray.” I’d be surprised if she lost her even if Dems are flipping the House.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How many "RED WAVE IS DOOMED!!" headlines did we get in 2010?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How many "RED WAVE IS DOOMED!!" headlines did we get in 2010?

There were a few, actually. Some special election results after MA Senate weren't good for Republicans, so the media trolled.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Biden is supporting Nancy Soderberg in FL-06. Biden has had a good track record of supporting winning candidates lately. He supported Doug Jones, Connor Lamb, and Margaret Good in that Florida state house election earlier this year. He did not support Jon Ossof and Rob Quist though.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/oregonelections/status/996071209551806466

[Dr. Arch]

No dem enthusiasm in Oregon -->

https://twitter.com/oregonelections/status/996071209551806466

Having a regression episode today?

[LimoLiberal]

No dem enthusiasm in Oregon -->

https://twitter.com/oregonelections/status/996071209551806466

Having a regression episode today?

Democrats have no real competitive primaries in the state, so it should't be surprising.

[KingSweden]

No dem enthusiasm in Oregon -->

https://twitter.com/oregonelections/status/996071209551806466

Having a regression episode today?

Democrats have no real competitive primaries in the state, so it should't be surprising.

I’d actually be intrigued by an analysis of how these numbers might effect the GOP Gov primary, which could be low key competitivr

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996236354311901184

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996236354311901184

Should this go in the GCB thread?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996236354311901184

Should this go in the GCB thread?

I wasn't sure...since it's more of a predicted result, I thought Ratings fit it better.  But MODs should feel free to move if GCB is a better place.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Inside elections shift 5 more races toward the dems http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/house-ratings-changes-open-seats

[KingSweden]

Inside elections shift 5 more races toward the dems http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/house-ratings-changes-open-seats

These were long overdue (especially NJ-2)

[Gass3268]

Inside elections shift 5 more races toward the dems http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/house-ratings-changes-open-seats

These were long overdue (especially NJ-2)

They are clearly the most (small c) conservative of all of the rating groups, with the Crystal Ball being the most liberal.

[KingSweden]

Cook’s thoughts, and this is a good example of how to analyze the uptick in approvals for Trump without Limo-style “Blue wave totes dead u guyz” Dem-disarray nonsense. Fair and even handed.

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/glimmers-hope-gop

[Gass3268]

Cook’s thoughts, and this is a good example of how to analyze the uptick in approvals for Trump without Limo-style “Blue wave totes dead u guyz” Dem-disarray nonsense. Fair and even handed.

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/glimmers-hope-gop

Very good article. To me this is the crux of it:

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[Devout Centrist]

Cook’s thoughts, and this is a good example of how to analyze the uptick in approvals for Trump without Limo-style “Blue wave totes dead u guyz” Dem-disarray nonsense. Fair and even handed.

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/glimmers-hope-gop

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/29/AR2010092904116.html

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Same headline too!

[KingSweden]

Cook’s thoughts, and this is a good example of how to analyze the uptick in approvals for Trump without Limo-style “Blue wave totes dead u guyz” Dem-disarray nonsense. Fair and even handed.

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/glimmers-hope-gop

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/29/AR2010092904116.html

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Same headline too!

My point exactly. And from September of an election year no less.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Holy sheet ActBlue has just announced it has raised $783M for the midterms!!!! https://twitter.com/actblue/status/996455672647766016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mediaite.com%2Fonline%2Fdemocrat-small-donor-group-close-to-raising-a-massive-1-billion-for-2018-midterms%2F&tfw_creator=KenMeyer91&tfw_site=mediaite