2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 172981 times)
LimoLiberal
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« Reply #375 on: May 16, 2018, 09:45:31 AM »
Another shift to Rs -->
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Gass3268
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« Reply #376 on: May 16, 2018, 10:00:46 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 16, 2018, 09:45:31 AM
Another shift to Rs -->



Another? This was the first shift toward the Republicans in any of the qualitative projections that I can remember.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #377 on: May 16, 2018, 10:02:22 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on May 16, 2018, 10:00:46 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 16, 2018, 09:45:31 AM
Another shift to Rs -->



Another? This was the first shift toward the Republicans in any of the qualitative projections that I can remember.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #378 on: May 16, 2018, 10:03:08 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on May 16, 2018, 10:00:46 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 16, 2018, 09:45:31 AM
Another shift to Rs -->



Another? This was the first shift toward the Republicans in any of the qualitative projections that I can remember.

OH-16 shifted from Likely R to Safe R as well.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #379 on: May 16, 2018, 10:09:55 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 16, 2018, 10:03:08 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on May 16, 2018, 10:00:46 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 16, 2018, 09:45:31 AM
Another shift to Rs -->



Another? This was the first shift toward the Republicans in any of the qualitative projections that I can remember.

OH-16 shifted from Likely R to Safe R as well.

Forgot about that one, thank you
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Gass3268
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« Reply #380 on: May 16, 2018, 02:06:27 PM »
G. Elliot Morris is updating his model to finally include the new PA map and to include special election data.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #381 on: May 17, 2018, 08:34:29 AM »
Crystal Ball has updated their seat-by-seat look at a path to Democrats taking the House: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-democrats-drive-for-25-in-the-house-an-update/.  This is long, detailed, and worth a read.  Bottom line: Democratic chances have slightly improved since their original assessment.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #382 on: May 17, 2018, 09:27:34 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on May 17, 2018, 08:34:29 AM
Crystal Ball has updated their seat-by-seat look at a path to Democrats taking the House: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-democrats-drive-for-25-in-the-house-an-update/.  This is long, detailed, and worth a read.  Bottom line: Democratic chances have slightly improved since their original assessment.

Great piece
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #383 on: May 17, 2018, 09:32:50 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on May 17, 2018, 09:27:34 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on May 17, 2018, 08:34:29 AM
Crystal Ball has updated their seat-by-seat look at a path to Democrats taking the House: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-democrats-drive-for-25-in-the-house-an-update/.  This is long, detailed, and worth a read.  Bottom line: Democratic chances have slightly improved since their original assessment.

Great piece

Yep. Another takeaway is that DEM chances have gone up a lot, it is just more uncertain right now pending CA (which I'm not worried about, even if Sabato is).
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KingSweden
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« Reply #384 on: May 17, 2018, 10:02:51 AM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on May 17, 2018, 09:32:50 AM
Quote from: KingSweden on May 17, 2018, 09:27:34 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on May 17, 2018, 08:34:29 AM
Crystal Ball has updated their seat-by-seat look at a path to Democrats taking the House: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-democrats-drive-for-25-in-the-house-an-update/.  This is long, detailed, and worth a read.  Bottom line: Democratic chances have slightly improved since their original assessment.

Great piece

Yep. Another takeaway is that DEM chances have gone up a lot, it is just more uncertain right now pending CA (which I'm not worried about, even if Sabato is).

I think it’s worth being clear eyed about the risks Top Two might pose in select CA districts
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #385 on: May 17, 2018, 02:40:17 PM »
Elliott Morris has updated his 2018 House model, giving the Democrats a 56.9% chance of flipping the chamber.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #386 on: May 17, 2018, 02:41:09 PM »
I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #387 on: May 17, 2018, 03:06:49 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 17, 2018, 02:41:09 PM
I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.

I found that odd too, but it has nothing to do with his open personal opinion.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #388 on: May 17, 2018, 03:08:28 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on May 17, 2018, 03:06:49 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 17, 2018, 02:41:09 PM
I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.

I found that odd too, but it has nothing to do with his open personal opinion.

So he’s personally more bullish than his model, which is probably a good sign. I’d rather models skew conservative in their assumptions
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #389 on: May 17, 2018, 03:27:32 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on May 17, 2018, 03:08:28 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on May 17, 2018, 03:06:49 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 17, 2018, 02:41:09 PM
I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.

I found that odd too, but it has nothing to do with his open personal opinion.

So he’s personally more bullish than his model, which is probably a good sign. I’d rather models skew conservative in their assumptions
it isnt that, it is that the model religiously follows pvi
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #390 on: May 17, 2018, 04:45:04 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 17, 2018, 02:41:09 PM
I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.

His district by district model is basically PVI/2016 results + ballot with a incumbency and scandal factor. It was reallllllllly obvious earlier, and it still is - MN07 reflects this nicely. The only important part of that model is the number on the tin.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #391 on: May 17, 2018, 08:47:29 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on May 17, 2018, 04:45:04 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 17, 2018, 02:41:09 PM
I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.

His district by district model is basically PVI/2016 results + ballot with a incumbency and scandal factor. It was reallllllllly obvious earlier, and it still is - MN07 reflects this nicely. The only important part of that model is the number on the tin.

There were multiple times when he manually changed the rating of one race due to something happening. Ex: NC-09 and Pittenger's loss.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #392 on: May 18, 2018, 11:18:21 AM »
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #393 on: May 18, 2018, 10:54:55 PM »

Wow.
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Doimper
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« Reply #394 on: May 18, 2018, 11:08:24 PM »

Hmm. Interesting.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #395 on: May 19, 2018, 12:33:43 AM »
Republicans as a whole still have a net cash advantage.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #396 on: May 19, 2018, 09:58:22 AM »
Republican enthusiasm in VA-06
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #397 on: May 19, 2018, 10:09:33 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 19, 2018, 09:58:22 AM
Republican enthusiasm in VA-06


VA-06 is a R+13 district so.....
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #398 on: May 19, 2018, 10:19:10 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 19, 2018, 09:58:22 AM
Republican enthusiasm in VA-06



This is a Safe R Appalachian seat. Wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot of loyal trump voters here, since the dem won't come in spitting distance of victory.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #399 on: May 21, 2018, 08:55:46 AM »
Inside Elections (Roll Call) changes 19 races towards the Democrats:

Solid Republican -> Likely Republican
- Arkasnas 2
- California 4
- Georgia 7
- Indiana 2
- Michigan 7
- New Jesey 3
- Ohio 1
- Ohio 14
- Texas 21
- West Virginia 3

Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- Maine 2
- New Mexico 2
- Virginia 7

Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- New Jersey 7

Tilt Republican to Toss Up
- Iowa 1
- Pennslyvania 17

Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
- New Jersey 5

Likely Democatic to Solid Democratic
- California 7
- Florida 13

Source
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