2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Politician]

Inside Elections (Roll Call) changes 19 races towards the Democrats:

Solid Republican -> Likely Republican
- Arkasnas 2
- California 4
- Georgia 7
- Indiana 2
- Michigan 7
- New Jesey 3
- Ohio 1
- Ohio 14
- Texas 21
- West Virginia 3

Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- Maine 2
- New Mexico 2
- Virginia 7

Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- New Jersey 7

Tilt Republican to Toss Up
- Iowa 1
- Pennslyvania 17

Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
- New Jersey 5

Likely Democatic to Solid Democratic
- California 7
- Florida 13

Source

Excellent. Inside's ratings are the most R-friendly of the three big ones, so this is very good for the Democrats.

[Oryxslayer]

Inside Elections (Roll Call) changes 19 races towards the Democrats:

Solid Republican -> Likely Republican
- Arkasnas 2
- California 4
- Georgia 7
- Indiana 2
- Michigan 7
- New Jesey 3
- Ohio 1
- Ohio 14
- Texas 21
- West Virginia 3

Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- Maine 2
- New Mexico 2
- Virginia 7

Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- New Jersey 7

Tilt Republican to Toss Up
- Iowa 1
- Pennslyvania 17

Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
- New Jersey 5

Likely Democatic to Solid Democratic
- California 7
- Florida 13

Source

Excellent. Inside's ratings are the most R-friendly of the three big ones, so this is very good for the Democrats.

They are the most soft-c conservative (slower to change ratings) of the political forcasters. Partly this is their style, partly this is because they have two extra categories (tilts) seats need to move through. If this was a dem majority a a republican tide coming like in 2010, Inside/Rothenberg would be just as slow.

[Tekken_Guy]

Inside Elections (Roll Call) changes 19 races towards the Democrats:

Solid Republican -> Likely Republican
- Arkasnas 2
- California 4
- Georgia 7
- Indiana 2
- Michigan 7
- New Jesey 3
- Ohio 1
- Ohio 14
- Texas 21
- West Virginia 3

Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- Maine 2
- New Mexico 2
- Virginia 7

Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- New Jersey 7

Tilt Republican to Toss Up
- Iowa 1
- Pennslyvania 17

Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
- New Jersey 5

Likely Democatic to Solid Democratic
- California 7
- Florida 13

Source

Excellent. Inside's ratings are the most R-friendly of the three big ones, so this is very good for the Democrats.

They are the most soft-c conservative (slower to change ratings) of the political forcasters. Partly this is their style, partly this is because they have two extra categories (tilts) seats need to move through. If this was a dem majority a a republican tide coming like in 2010, Inside/Rothenberg would be just as slow.

That's true. All of the Solid-to-Likely R moves are already on the board for Cook.

[LimoLiberal]

Political environment shifts further to Republicans -->

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-gop-fortunes-improve-four-districts

Cook Political Report has 4 districts shifting to the GOP

CA-39: Lean D --> Tossup
CA-49: Lean D --> Tossup
SC-05: Likely R --> Safe R
NE-02: Tossup --> Lean R

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[KingSweden]

Those CA races as Tossup until the primaries is not unreasonable (and IMO where they should have been to begin with).

I think NE-2 is a bit of an overreaction, and honestly SC-5 at Likely was probably an overreaction too. Should have been Safe before the Parnell news.

[LimoLiberal]

Dems panicking in California -->

https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/998958708897001473

Top Dem leader doubts Dems will have wave in 7 Clinton-Republican districts.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dems panicking in California -->

https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/998958708897001473

Top Dem leader doubts Dems will have wave in 7 Clinton-Republican districts.

I mean yeah, Democrats are trying their very best to do as bad as they can in CA, stupid jungle primaries!

[LimoLiberal]

Obama, Clinton, Sanders, Harris: any and all of them need to endorse, pronto. Ballots are already being sent in. The Democratic party cannot fail the voters of Orange County like this. Get a goddamn democrat on the ballot.

[YE]

Appelgate and Cisneros are a solid bet to make the top two in CA-49 and CA-39, no?

[LimoLiberal]

Appelgate and Cisneros are a solid bet to make the top two in CA-49 and CA-39, no?

Nope. No polling has shown them clearly in the lead. Two republicans can easily advance to the general in both of the districts.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

One of CA-39 or CA-49 will be D vs D. I think it will be CA-49. The "frontrunner" for R's, Rocky Chavez, has been fundraising poorly and slipping in the points.

I also think there's a good chance CA-48 could be R vs R

[KingSweden]

Frankly I think the biggest risk for R v R is CA-48, which is why the DCCC came out for Rouda. I’d be surprised if there was a lockout in more than one district, and I think all three will be D v R in the end, but there should have been culling done earlier so nobody had to break the glass now.

[Gass3268]

Frankly I think the biggest risk for R v R is CA-48, which is why the DCCC came out for Rouda. I’d be surprised if there was a lockout in more than one district, and I think all three will be D v R in the end, but there should have been culling done earlier so nobody had to break the glass now.

I really don’t know why there hasn’t been a “grassroots” *cough* *cough* *wink* *wink* to get rid of the jungle primary.

[Oryxslayer]

Frankly I think the biggest risk for R v R is CA-48, which is why the DCCC came out for Rouda. I’d be surprised if there was a lockout in more than one district, and I think all three will be D v R in the end, but there should have been culling done earlier so nobody had to break the glass now.

I really don’t know why there hasn’t been a “grassroots” *cough* *cough* *wink* *wink* to get rid of the jungle primary.

Because outside of these clown cars, it has been good for the state. Look at the statewide offices and the variety of candidates running for governor for example. And a clown car always sucks, no matter what the primary rules.

TBH the only seat I am even  losing sleep over as a californian is the 48th. Every other probably goes to DvR, and as already stated, CA-49 has a statistical chance right now of being DvD.

[Politician]

Only CA-48 is currently at R vs R risk. Hopefully that won't happen though.

[Gass3268]

Democrats chance of winning the House surges to over 60% in The Crosstab

Before anyone asks, this is a result of mixing in special election data and the new PA map.

[KingSweden]

Democrats chance of winning the House surges to over 60% in The Crosstab

Before anyone asks, this is a result of mixing in special election data and the new PA map.

But Limo told me - *hit with tranq dart*

[Politician]

Democrats chance of winning the House surges to over 60% in The Crosstab

Before anyone asks, this is a result of mixing in special election data and the new PA map.

But Limo told me - *hit with tranq dart*

[BuckeyeNut]

Democrats chance of winning the House surges to over 60% in The Crosstab

Before anyone asks, this is a result of mixing in special election data and the new PA map.

But Limo told me - *hit with tranq dart*

[mencken]

So how are Democrats handwaving the significant shift toward Republicans on the generic ballot? Just by hoping that a handful of open-seat special elections are reflective of November election results? It seems that people here are unwilling to consider any possibility that does not involve the sky being the limit for Democratic gains (as if you have learned nothing from 2014 and 2016)

[Hindsight was 2020]

So how are Democrats handwaving the significant shift toward Republicans on the generic ballot? Just by hoping that a handful of open-seat special elections are reflective of November election results? It seems that people here are unwilling to consider any possibility that does not involve the sky being the limit for Democratic gains (as if you have learned nothing from 2014 and 2016)

Multiple reasons: 1) Trump is president and midterms don't go well for the president's party unless a tragic event happens (2002) and/or the president is really popular (Clinton was at like 65% in 98) and the first part hasn't/hopefully doesn't happen and second half isn't true, 2) It's May and historically GCB are close at this time and we see the breaks happen later in the summer (in fact dems being up around 5% in tge averages is historical ahead of what the opposition party is polling at this time), and 3) the GOP has very little to run on with NK falling apart, rising premiums, and the tax bill still being unpopular.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So how are Democrats handwaving the significant shift toward Republicans on the generic ballot? Just by hoping that a handful of open-seat special elections are reflective of November election results? It seems that people here are unwilling to consider any possibility that does not involve the sky being the limit for Democratic gains (as if you have learned nothing from 2014 and 2016)

This, and earlier posts in Elliott's feed, are a good analytical look at it:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/999020344794116098

[Politician]

So how are Democrats handwaving the significant shift toward Republicans on the generic ballot? Just by hoping that a handful of open-seat special elections are reflective of November election results? It seems that people here are unwilling to consider any possibility that does not involve the sky being the limit for Democratic gains (as if you have learned nothing from 2014 and 2016)

But muh 2016!

[Gass3268]

So how are Democrats handwaving the significant shift toward Republicans on the generic ballot? Just by hoping that a handful of open-seat special elections are reflective of November election results? It seems that people here are unwilling to consider any possibility that does not involve the sky being the limit for Democratic gains (as if you have learned nothing from 2014 and 2016)

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/998998676587581441

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/998999572293791744

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/999020344794116098

[KingSweden]

I feel like the weirdo who is both skeptical of Morris’ model but also thinks LL and his ilk are utter hacks who only look at data that confirms their priors