Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[AndyHogan14]

I think these races depend on 1) how unhinged Donald Trump gets over the next two months which will keep Democratic voters energized (some Trump voters may even be demoralized after the loss and not show up) and 2) what happens with the ACA case that is before the Supreme Court. If there is a decision or it seems likely that SCOTUS is going to strike down the ACA, I would say Dems have a very good chance.

[AndyHogan14]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

[AndyHogan14]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

David Perdue isn't as polarized as Loeffler is so I think he is going to outperform again just like he did on Tuesday.

Best case scenario is a 50-50 Senate Tie for them. Remember: Unless Al Gross shocks the world and beats Dan Sullivan in Alaska or Democrats find some MAGIC BOXES in North Carolina to bring Cunningham back in the Game the Senate will be 48-50 in favor of Republicans. It could quite likely be that Perdue wins and Loeffler loses meaning 51-49 Republican Majority.

David Perdue should be fine.  Ossoff isn’t very popular and he already proved he can beat him by 2%.  I’m worried about Kelly which is why I voted for Collins to begin with.  I’m gonna work very hard to ensure both of them win.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that there will be too many Perdue-Warnock ticket splitters. As such, we are probably looking at a 52-48 GOP majority or a 50-50 Democratic majority. Like I said, it'll be a turnout game for both sides.

[AndyHogan14]

Does anyone know what the exact margin was between Trump-Biden at around midnight on election night (both % and number of votes)?

[AndyHogan14]

Does anyone know what the exact margin was between Trump-Biden at around midnight on election night (both % and number of votes)?

Yes.

Trump: 2,148,319 (53.23%)
Biden: 1,838,377 (45.55%)
Jorgensen: 49,413 (1.22%)

Note: this is also around the time that the needle turned shifted towards Biden.

Thanks. Too lazy to look it up myself—I'm currently in office hours with my students—although the last kid just left, so I can now start focusing on Georgia (as long as no one else shows up).

[AndyHogan14]

It's happening.  Needles.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

Just seeing this page up is going to give me a coronary.

[AndyHogan14]

Too close to call from NBC. LOL.

[AndyHogan14]

Can we get a Go Dawgs in the chat to manifest double flip Georgia

The Braves, Falcons, Hawks, Bulldogs, and Yellow Jackets will move up dramatically on my list if we win both. Ha.

[AndyHogan14]

I'm three margaritas in...we're celebrating here in California. Let's Go!

[AndyHogan14]

MSNBC is saying Ossoff trails by 20k...what is it?

[AndyHogan14]

NBC CALLS IT FOR WARNOCK!

[AndyHogan14]

Depends on how Trump acts.

This. However, I think they are both pure tossups at the moment.

Loeffler Race is a Toss Up, Perdue is not! Get over it that the Perdue Race is a Toss Up. Doesn't matter how Trump Acts. Republicans will come out in full force having lost the Presidency. The Senate now stands in between "Checks and Balance" or full "Democratic Control". Our Lives, certainly my life depends on at least one Republican winning and derail Biden/Harris and their far radical-leftwing agenda.

Ahem.

[AndyHogan14]

NBC just called it for Ossoff while Biden is speaking.

[AndyHogan14]

Any new counties certify today? Is there a site I should keep an eye on to see county certifications (other than going to each individual website)?

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

Likely overnight, the AJC wrote today that they'll likely be sworn-in when the Senate reconvenes on Wednesday (so, just after the inauguration & immediately prior to the beginning of the trial).

Ah, I see. Can there be a vote on the very same day to replace McConnell with Schumer, or will that have to wait too?

That will happen as soon as Ossoff and Warnock are sworn in and Harris is Vice President. I do think, however, that there will need to be some sort of vote to make Pat Leahy the President Pro Tempore. Does anyone know what the process is for that? I always watch the House on the opening day of Congress and have never bothered to watch the Senate on that day.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

Likely overnight, the AJC wrote today that they'll likely be sworn-in when the Senate reconvenes on Wednesday (so, just after the inauguration & immediately prior to the beginning of the trial).

Ah, I see. Can there be a vote on the very same day to replace McConnell with Schumer, or will that have to wait too?

That will happen as soon as Ossoff and Warnock are sworn in and Harris is Vice President. I do think, however, that there will need to be some sort of vote to make Pat Leahy the President Pro Tempore. Does anyone know what the process is for that? I always watch the House on the opening day of Congress and have never bothered to watch the Senate on that day.

Wait, so does Schumer becoming majority leader happen automatically without the need of a vote or any kind of formal process? Just as long as it's ascertained that there are 50+1 Democrats in the Senate? Great news if so.

As far as I know, yes, Schumer will automatically become majority leader being that he is already the recognized Democratic leader and on January 20, the Democrats will have a majority. With that said, I'm sure that there is some procedural garbage that they have to go through for committee chairmanships and the like. I also just watched the replay of C-SPAN from 1/3/19 when Chuck Grassley replaced Orrin Hatch at President Pro Tempore and that was a quick process (there wasn't even a vote).

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1350243979045072897

All counties have now certified, and the state is likely to do so on Tuesday. Ossoff and Warnock will likely be sworn in Wednesday morning.

The question is, do they want to be sworn in by Pence or Harris? I would assume that they would just wait until after the inauguration is over so Harris swears them in which would flip the chamber in one fell swoop (and I want to watch exactly that unfold on C-SPAN).

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1350243979045072897

All counties have now certified, and the state is likely to do so on Tuesday. Ossoff and Warnock will likely be sworn in Wednesday morning.

The question is, do they want to be sworn in by Pence or Harris? I would assume that they would just wait until after the inauguration is over so Harris swears them in which would flip the chamber in one fell swoop (and I want to watch exactly that unfold on C-SPAN).

It's not a matter of who they want, it's a matter of when the first Senate reconvening after their certification is. If - as expected - it's after the inauguration, then it'll be Harris.

If the Senate doesn't receive the certificates until after 12:00 ET on 1/20 then yes, they will have no choice but have Harris swear them in, but I would assume that the Senate would get them before noon. Then, it is just a matter of when Ossoff and Warnock show up on the Senate floor...

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1350243979045072897

All counties have now certified, and the state is likely to do so on Tuesday. Ossoff and Warnock will likely be sworn in Wednesday morning.

The question is, do they want to be sworn in by Pence or Harris? I would assume that they would just wait until after the inauguration is over so Harris swears them in which would flip the chamber in one fell swoop (and I want to watch exactly that unfold on C-SPAN).

It's not a matter of who they want, it's a matter of when the first Senate reconvening after their certification is. If - as expected - it's after the inauguration, then it'll be Harris.

If the Senate doesn't receive the certificates until after 12:00 ET on 1/20 then yes, they will have no choice but have Harris swear them in, but I would assume that the Senate would get them before noon. Then, it is just a matter of when Ossoff and Warnock show up on the Senate floor...

No, that's still not exactly how it works. Even once the Senate has received the certificates, they still have to wait for the Senate to actually be in session before they can be sworn in. If the Senate gets the certificates at 6am on Wednesday but they're not in session 'til, say, 1pm, then they can't be sworn in 'til 1pm.

Of course...but I am operating under the assumption that the Senate will be in session both in the AM and PM on January 20.