2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Beet]

Robertson County KY is 93% in and it's a... 2 point swing to TRUMP.

[Beet]

PredictIt is a lot more muted than in 2016. At this time four years ago, Clinton was trading at 80%-90%. Now Biden is around 68%-70%.

[Beet]

Bath county, KY at 88% in has a 2 point swing to Trump.

[Beet]

Dems' lack of Hispanic outreach is criminal.

[Beet]

Trump continues to rise in FL, at 91% on the needle.

[Beet]

FL now a record high 94% for Trump (needle)

[Beet]

Counties in KY that are almost all in (Nicholas, Bath) are now showing a swing towards Trump from 2016. It's over.

[Beet]

NY Times needle has maxed out FL for Trump (>95%) with over 73% reporting. Could be seeing a call soon.

[Beet]

There goes the Bloomberg $100 million

[Beet]

Blocking Sanders was supposed to prevent what happened in Miami-Dade from happening. Ironically Sanders was quite popular among Hispanics.

[Beet]

Boone County, KY (Cincinnati suburbs) is the first county that really has had a substantial swing that is nearly all reporting. Was Trump +42 in 2016, now Trump +24.

Why did it drop from 57k to 38k votes though?

[Beet]

Biden only doing 1 point better than O'Rourke in Denton is not going to help him.

[Beet]

Biden is only doing 2 points better than Hillary Clinton in Harris... it's done.

[Beet]

Anyone remember this story?

Biden organizers say campaign is 'suppressing the Hispanic vote' in Florida, mistreating staff


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/509039-internal-letter-says-biden-campaign-is-suppressing-the-hispanic-vote-in

[Beet]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

No matter what happens, the Republicans have kept the Senate which puts any victory lap for mainstream Dems off the table.

Yeah, I don't see how even a Biden victory after this would be a rebuke for 'doomers.' We've been more than vindicated tonight.

[Beet]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Only seems impossible if you can't admit that Dems  are losing Latino voters as they gradually assimilate into white America.

I have a feeling Democrats 50 years ago or whatever were feeling the exact same way when the always reliable Italian and Irish votes began to flip.

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

[Beet]

Latino culture isn't monolithic.

Neither was the swing last night...

[Beet]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

Why do you seem to be under the impression that the most powerful man in the world is merely “symbolic” and the Senate is the only thing that matters? Are you aware of what the president actually does and is responsible for? It’s pretty goddamned important. This COVID crisis alone is Exhibit A of how a president’s response to a crisis can make or break a nation, for example.

I swear, the way you talk it's like you think POTUS is just a “head of state” like the Queen of England or something instead of also head of government of the most powerful nation in the world, and Commander-in-Chief of its military and nuclear codes.

Because despite my short term attention span, I can remember four years ago and how a Republican Senate blocked everything Obama wanted to do for the majority of his tenure. McConnell is going to be very dangerous in terms of blocking legislation. Plus, with all of the anti-lockdown hysteria, the Republicans will be suing Biden over every pandemic control measure he tries to implement. With a Court that's majority hacks, they'll find a lot of success there.

Sorry, dude, I know you want to find a silver lining and rejoice that Ice Cream man melted Drumpf, but there really isn't one. There's no more punching bag for the national Democratic Party and so the Republican Party just became a lot more dangerous.

Yup exactly. The Republicans lock in all the gains they made under Trump, while the opposition is lulled asleep. Republicans should be dancing in the streets.

[Beet]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

[Beet]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

Dude what are you talking about

Eh, it should be self-evident. The fact that female rappers didn't breakthrough until the mid-2010s whereas a white male rapper became the biggest on the planet as early as 2000 should tell you something.

[Beet]

In Tx the D's didn't even pick up a single state house seat (net), they did ironically pick up a heavily Latino state senate seat that they lost in a fluke last year.

[Beet]

Helpless democratic leadership energy coming from the Trump campaign.

Speaking of helpless. You’re a Democrat in Florida? How does that feel....?

Honestly being a Democrat in Florida is a lot more efficacious than one in Massachusetts. In Florida, if you better reach out/organize Hispanics, and convince people around you, you can change the country for the better. In Massachusetts...? Your state is as safe as can be and has no clout to change national politics.

[Beet]

Please celebrate, but don't gloat, if/when Biden takes the lead in these states counting mail ballots.  I don't believe that there is anything majorly fraudulent going on here, but it is still really hard watching apparent leads disappear even if you know it's coming.  I remember that well from the AZ-SEN and several CA House races in 2018.  We need to find a more efficient way of counting mail ballots going forward because this sort of result seems fishy to people who don't pay that close of attention to why it's happening, and that appearance can be real for so many people.

Get the Republican legislature to allow early processing of ballots.

This is intentional design, and it's designed by Republican Politicians.

If the Democrats want to influence state legislatures they will have to do mid-decade redistricting if they somehow win in the 2020s, because this year was a bust.

[Beet]

People are talking About biden underperformance with some hispanic voters but here is something to remember

yes trump did better hispanics in 2020 and Hillary did even better with them in 2016 but look at where that got them in the end.....


The fact is Biden built a more broad coalition that was getting a good chuck of votes form ever ethnicity instead of just relying on 1.He many not have dominated with that group like Hillary did but he did not have to since unlike Hillary he was doing better among almost every other group of voters.

The big leason here for both Dems and the GOP is make the effort to win over every American instead of simply just relying on 1 group of voter to help you get the to the white house.

They do need to improve their outreach among Hispanics specifically because this cycle it was just atrocious.

The only group Biden did better among than Hillary was Whites. If there's 1 group that matters the most it's Whites.

[Beet]

seriously what is going on in Georgia.  There aren't that many ballots to count in some of these counties.

They are all trying to release last so they know how many ballots they have to pull out of the hat.