2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Is the count this morning from Nevada supposed to be most of the remaining votes? Or at least hopefully enough to call it...

When does that drop, wbrocks?

[DaleCooper]

CNN says PA has 163K ballots left to count.

15-20K provisionals just in Philly as well.

If Biden wins ~75% of the 163K, that is 122K to 41K. 80K net gain. Would put Biden up about ~62K in PA.

163k?? The github page says 275k? Still shouldn't be a problem for Biden, but it is really frustrating with these varying numbers.

Given that they've been counting for the past 12 hours and reported next to nothing, I'm guessing that it's a discrepancy between votes counted and votes reported.

[BlueSwan]

Can anybody reasonably explain why Nevada and Arizona are counting this slowly? My students ask this all of the time and I feel that I pretty much BS myself through a very generalized answer. Are there any particularly reasons why these two states are THIS slow right now?

It's nothing new for Arizona, anyway.  A big part of the slowdown comes from the tedious and time-consuming signature verification process.  Literally every signature needs to be checked against the corresponding signature that one used when he/she registered to vote.  

If something's off, then the voting office attempts to get in touch with the voter.  That's not the whole answer, but the simple response is "because Arizona's voting check system is extremely meticulous".  

Source:  https://www.kold.com/2020/11/05/why-is-vote-counting-so-slow/

Thank you. Luckily that is pretty much in line with what I told my students. Do you have any ideas on Nevada?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can anybody reasonably explain why Nevada and Arizona are counting this slowly? My students ask this all of the time and I feel that I pretty much BS myself through a very generalized answer. Are there any particularly reasons why these two states are THIS slow right now?

It's nothing new for Arizona, anyway.  A big part of the slowdown comes from the tedious and time-consuming signature verification process.  Literally every signature needs to be checked against the corresponding signature that one used when he/she registered to vote.  

If something's off, then the voting office attempts to get in touch with the voter.  That's not the whole answer, but the simple response is "because Arizona's voting check system is extremely meticulous".  

Source:  https://www.kold.com/2020/11/05/why-is-vote-counting-so-slow/

Thank you. Luckily that is pretty much in line with what I told my students. Do you have any ideas on Nevada?

Because Nevada's a freak state full of monster people and YE. 

[BlueSwan]

CNN says PA has 163K ballots left to count.

15-20K provisionals just in Philly as well.

If Biden wins ~75% of the 163K, that is 122K to 41K. 80K net gain. Would put Biden up about ~62K in PA.

163k?? The github page says 275k? Still shouldn't be a problem for Biden, but it is really frustrating with these varying numbers.

Given that they've been counting for the past 12 hours and reported next to nothing, I'm guessing that it's a discrepancy between votes counted and votes reported.

Let's hope so.

[BlueSwan]

Can anybody reasonably explain why Nevada and Arizona are counting this slowly? My students ask this all of the time and I feel that I pretty much BS myself through a very generalized answer. Are there any particularly reasons why these two states are THIS slow right now?

It's nothing new for Arizona, anyway.  A big part of the slowdown comes from the tedious and time-consuming signature verification process.  Literally every signature needs to be checked against the corresponding signature that one used when he/she registered to vote.  

If something's off, then the voting office attempts to get in touch with the voter.  That's not the whole answer, but the simple response is "because Arizona's voting check system is extremely meticulous".  

Source:  https://www.kold.com/2020/11/05/why-is-vote-counting-so-slow/

Thank you. Luckily that is pretty much in line with what I told my students. Do you have any ideas on Nevada?

Because Nevada's a freak state full of monster people and YE. 

Makes sense!

[wbrocks67]

Is the count this morning from Nevada supposed to be most of the remaining votes? Or at least hopefully enough to call it...

When does that drop, wbrocks?

I think I saw between 11a-Noon EST.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can anybody reasonably explain why Nevada and Arizona are counting this slowly? My students ask this all of the time and I feel that I pretty much BS myself through a very generalized answer. Are there any particularly reasons why these two states are THIS slow right now?

It's nothing new for Arizona, anyway.  A big part of the slowdown comes from the tedious and time-consuming signature verification process.  Literally every signature needs to be checked against the corresponding signature that one used when he/she registered to vote.  

If something's off, then the voting office attempts to get in touch with the voter.  That's not the whole answer, but the simple response is "because Arizona's voting check system is extremely meticulous".  

Source:  https://www.kold.com/2020/11/05/why-is-vote-counting-so-slow/

Thank you. Luckily that is pretty much in line with what I told my students. Do you have any ideas on Nevada?

Because Nevada's a freak state full of monster people and YE.  

Makes sense!

Seriously though, it's more complex in NV.  

Some of it is because of a holdup in counting about 20,000-25,000 votes.  Some of it is because of uncounted provisionals.  Etc. etc.

Source:  https://heavy.com/news/why-nevada-election-results-taking-so-long-slow/

[DaleCooper]

It also really, really doesn't help that these counties keep promising to release counts at a certain time and then not following through.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Can anybody reasonably explain why Nevada and Arizona are counting this slowly? My students ask this all of the time and I feel that I pretty much BS myself through a very generalized answer. Are there any particularly reasons why these two states are THIS slow right now?

It's nothing new for Arizona, anyway.  A big part of the slowdown comes from the tedious and time-consuming signature verification process.  Literally every signature needs to be checked against the corresponding signature that one used when he/she registered to vote.  

If something's off, then the voting office attempts to get in touch with the voter.  That's not the whole answer, but the simple response is "because Arizona's voting check system is extremely meticulous".  

Source:  https://www.kold.com/2020/11/05/why-is-vote-counting-so-slow/

Thank you. Luckily that is pretty much in line with what I told my students. Do you have any ideas on Nevada?

Because Nevada's a freak state full of monster people and YE. 

Average Nevada voters:

[Alben Barkley]

I actually think it's probably worse that I remained calm on election night only to take out my pent-up anger on Floridians LOL. Even though it's pretty clear now that we're gonna win. So stupid and unnecessary.

That all said, I THINK we can all agree that Florida should never again be considered part of a Democrat's path to 270. It should just be written off as a state we hope to win in a landslide at best. There genuinely are brighter hopes for the likes of GA and NC as far as states we can truly flip D permanently.

[gerritcole]

So got off work a little early, check into Atlas and had to go through about (70) additional pages since I last checked in, much of which was relatively irrelevant.

Am I the only one who has read all (519) pages of this thread since I don't have anyone on ignore?

So basically, we're either waiting for Biden to take the lead in GA Tonight in Clayton County, or if not than after Gwinnett reports tomorrow Morning, but even so likely not called by networks bcs of Provisionals and Overseas Ballots (Plus Recount Zone).

PA might well see Biden take a lead Tonight from a combination of Philly updates every two hours (are they counting all Night?) or miscellaneous counties reporting updates?

Allegheny likely won't be the County to push Biden over the top, bcs counting won't be restarted until Tomorrow.

Is that a correct summary of the situation now?

I've been reading every one too man. I just wish they would call it and start the next chapter. The endless court wars.

1876/2020: when stealing one state like 2000 isn't enough.

jfk stole illinois but that's okay tho

Debatable, but even if true he still would have won the election without Illinois.

Please learn both basic history and arithmetic before posting again.

Oh no! Atlas’s number one disbarred lawyer told me not to post, what will I do? Develop some intelligence before you post again and buzz off

[European Lefty]

I actually think it's probably worse that I remained calm on election night only to take out my pent-up anger on Floridians LOL. Even though it's pretty clear now that we're gonna win. So stupid and unnecessary.

That all said, I THINK we can all agree that Florida should never again be considered part of a Democrat's path to 270. It should just be written off as a state we hope to win in a landslide at best. There genuinely are brighter hopes for the likes of GA and NC as far as states we can truly flip D permanently.

I'm not sure it's that hopeless is it? It's not like the Democrats got blown out by 10%+

[Horus]

So got off work a little early, check into Atlas and had to go through about (70) additional pages since I last checked in, much of which was relatively irrelevant.

Am I the only one who has read all (519) pages of this thread since I don't have anyone on ignore?

So basically, we're either waiting for Biden to take the lead in GA Tonight in Clayton County, or if not than after Gwinnett reports tomorrow Morning, but even so likely not called by networks bcs of Provisionals and Overseas Ballots (Plus Recount Zone).

PA might well see Biden take a lead Tonight from a combination of Philly updates every two hours (are they counting all Night?) or miscellaneous counties reporting updates?

Allegheny likely won't be the County to push Biden over the top, bcs counting won't be restarted until Tomorrow.

Is that a correct summary of the situation now?

I've been reading every one too man. I just wish they would call it and start the next chapter. The endless court wars.

1876/2020: when stealing one state like 2000 isn't enough.

jfk stole illinois but that's okay tho

Debatable, but even if true he still would have won the election without Illinois.

Please learn both basic history and arithmetic before posting again.

Oh no! Atlas’s number one disbarred lawyer told me not to post, what will I do? Develop some intelligence before you post again and buzz off

What did you say about Buzz?

[Alben Barkley]

Alben Barkley should start to get a grip on himself imo.

I ignored him. His comments are incredibly racist and disturbing and frankly shouldn't be allowed on the forum.

I deleted most/all of those comments and hope you can reconsider. They were the ignorant utterings of a drunken, misguided fool. I swear I am not like that 99% of the time.

Hell, just as the ballots in PA and NV have been delayed, my anger at FL happened to be delayed due to when I chose to indulge in alcohol. It was a serious mistake that I now seriously regret.

[DaleCooper]

Alben Barkley should start to get a grip on himself imo.

I ignored him. His comments are incredibly racist and disturbing and frankly shouldn't be allowed on the forum.

I deleted most/all of those comments and hope you can reconsider. They were the ignorant utterings of a drunken, misguided fool. I swear I am not like that 99% of the time.

Hell, just as the ballots in PA and NV have been delayed, my anger at FL happened to be delayed due to when I chose to indulge in alcohol. It was a serious mistake that I now seriously regret.

I have and I admire your willingness to admit to error. We all say things we regret, especially in stressful situations.

[Beet]

I actually think it's probably worse that I remained calm on election night only to take out my pent-up anger on Floridians LOL. Even though it's pretty clear now that we're gonna win. So stupid and unnecessary.

That all said, I THINK we can all agree that Florida should never again be considered part of a Democrat's path to 270. It should just be written off as a state we hope to win in a landslide at best. There genuinely are brighter hopes for the likes of GA and NC as far as states we can truly flip D permanently.

Florida has 29 electoral votes, and poised to gain more, so it can't be written off entirely.

The way I see it, Biden put an African-American woman on the ticket.

The Democrats spent much of the summer talking about BLM.

They didn't spend much time talking about a $15 minimum wage (which passed in FL) or immigration.

They said Latinos aren't part of their path to victory and suppressed the Hispanic vote.

Meanwhile Trump changed his home state to FL and his team put in the work with Cubans.

If you don't put in the effort, you don't get the result. If you put in the effort, you get a better result. Maybe that should be the lesson Democrats take instead.

[Brittain33]

I actually think it's probably worse that I remained calm on election night only to take out my pent-up anger on Floridians LOL. Even though it's pretty clear now that we're gonna win. So stupid and unnecessary.

That all said, I THINK we can all agree that Florida should never again be considered part of a Democrat's path to 270. It should just be written off as a state we hope to win in a landslide at best. There genuinely are brighter hopes for the likes of GA and NC as far as states we can truly flip D permanently.

Florida has 29 electoral votes, and poised to gain more, so it can't be written off entirely.

The way I see it, Biden put an African-American woman on the ticket.

The Democrats spent much of the summer talking about BLM.

They didn't spend much time talking about a $15 minimum wage (which passed in FL) or immigration.

They said Latinos aren't part of their path to victory and suppressed the Hispanic vote.

Meanwhile Trump changed his home state to FL and his team put in the work with Cubans.

If you don't put in the effort, you don't get the result. If you put in the effort, you get a better result. Maybe that should be the lesson Democrats take instead.

If Democrats prioritized African-Americans over Latinos, the results show in their narrow wins in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania... while the loss in Florida was so wide it would have remained a loss if Biden got Clinton’s numbers with Trump, which he never could. You must consider both sides of the ledger and we have a President-Elect Biden, a Senator Peters, and the slim chance of additional senators from Georgia.

[Tender Branson]

Just here to remind everyone that a 269-269 tie remains a possibility.

It would happen if:

Trump takes PA, NV, AZ, and ME-02.

Biden takes GA and NE-02.

Trump doesn’t take PA.

It’s over later today.

[TopShelfGoal]

Friendship ended with Florida. Georgia is my new friend now.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Just here to remind everyone that a 269-269 tie remains a possibility.

It would happen if:

Trump takes PA, NV, AZ, and ME-02.

Biden takes GA and NE-02.

Trump is not winning PA. They are just being annoying by not releasing the votes yet.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Nobody should be popping champagne for Georgia just yet, but in the very likely case of an extremely-slim margin either way, here's the laws surrounding recounts in the state:

Recount Laws/Guidelines (GA)

There are no automatic recount provisions for the state of Georgia.  Under Georgia law, recounts may be requested under the following conditions:

-  If the margin between candidates is less than or equal to 0.5%, a candidate may request a recount within two business days following the certification of results.  

-  An election official may order, at his or her discretion, a recount if it appears there is a discrepancy or error in the returns. In precincts using paper or scanned ballots, any candidate or political party may petition the election official to make such an order. In precincts using voting machines, any three electors of the precinct may do the same.

-  For constitutional amendments and binding referendum questions, the Constitutional Amendment Publication Board may, at its discretion, request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% within two business days following the certification of results.

-  The Secretary of State may request a recount at his or her discretion if a candidate for federal or state office petitions the office regarding an apparent discrepancy or error in the returns.

Source: "Recount Laws in Georgia".  Ballotpedia.  https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Georgia

**Oh, and just for those wondering:  0.5% of an estimated 4,960,000 is around 23,000 votes. 

[SN2903]

How many ballots left in GA including military?

[Brittain33]

NYT reports that Trump’s lead in PA is 18k with at least 54k votes to come from Philly. Stick a motherloving fork in him.

[Inmate Trump]

Just here to remind everyone that a 269-269 tie remains a possibility.

It would happen if:

Trump takes PA, NV, AZ, and ME-02.

Biden takes GA and NE-02.

Trump doesn’t take PA.

It’s over later today.

Are we sure on that last point?