Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum did several riding polls:

Pickering-Scarborough East: Libs up 49-35-11 (no surprise)
Thunder Bay-Atikokan: Libs up 38-30-19 (NDP in third )
Windsor West: NDP leading!!! 41-34-18 (NDP gain)
St. Catharines: Libs up 46-27-21 (not close like 2011)
Sudbury: NDP still ahead 44-36-15 (NDP gain)
Brampton-Springdale: Libs up 38-34-19 (wonder if the NDP is actually higher due to minorities underpolled)
Burlington: Libs up 42-41-13 (Liberal gain - a bit of surprise given the riding's history)
Cambridge: Libs ahead 42-29-16 (Liberal gain - BY THAT MUCH )
Davenport - Libs ahead 44-38-11 (Liberal gain from NDP )
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - Libs ahead 49-39-7 (Liberal gain - confirms Sid Ryan's internal poll)
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: PCs ahead 45-41-10 (PC gain)
Kitchener-Waterloo Libs ahead 35-33-24 (Liberal gain from NDP)
London West - NDP ahead 35-31-29 (Tories in 2nd; good news!)
Mississauga-Erindale- Libs ahead 47-43-13
Niagara Falls - NDP ahead 44-34-16 (Tories in 2nd; more good news!)
Ottawa South - Libs ahead 46-41-9 (so, in reality, the Liberals are probably ahead by double digits knowing how polls in this riding favour the Tories)
Ottawa West-Nepean - PCs lead 45-38-12 (PC gain)
Trinity-Spadina - Liberals lead 37-36-19 (Liberal gain from NDP; not as bad as I thought!)

Well, these polls confirm the Tories are up in Eastern Ontario, probably the McGuinty favourite son effect. Would like to see what the numbers in Ottawa-Orleans are.

For Toronto, these polls confirm the NDP collapse in Toronto - but may not be as bad. Wonder what things are like in Parkdale and Beaches?

In the 905, this confirms some big gains for the Liberals. Wonder what's going on in Halton, Newmarket-Aurora, Thornhill and Northumberland-Quinte West?

In the Kitchener area, it looks like the Liberals are putting it on. I wonder what the numbers are like in Kitchener-Conestoga? I presume at this point the Liberals are ahead in Kitchener Centre.


The polls confirm that the Liberals are winning in some non traditional territory (Cambridge and Burlington!?), so could be headed for a majority.

[DL]

I'm actually pleasantly surprised that Trinity-Spadina would be essentially dead even. i was fearing worse...and I knew it would be touch and go for Catherine Fife to win again in Waterloo - but again a 2% gap is nothing and well within margin of error.

As far as the NDP is concerned, I have a hunch the final seat total will be about what it is now - likely gains in Sudbury and Windsor balanced by possible losses of a couple in Toronto...at this point I'd be happy with 20

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprising to see the NDP losing in Kitchener-Waterloo, but winning in London West and Niagara Falls. I guess it has something to do with the Liberal strength in the Waterloo region picking up. I have no idea why though.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Given the record of these things, a few of these will likely be way off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Given the record of these things, a few of these will likely be way off.

Yes, like Cambridge and Thunder Bay-Atikokan (Can't see the NDP being third there)

[MaxQue]

Could Bruce Hyer defection have an effect on NDP in Thunder Bay?

[Hatman 🍁]

Could Bruce Hyer defection have an effect on NDP in Thunder Bay?

Well, Forum did a poll in Thunder Bay-Atikokan earlier in the campaign, and I was shocked at how far back the NDP candidate was, considering how close it was last time (same candidate too). Perhaps there's something to it, although Hyer represents the other Thunder Bay riding.

[DL]

Could Bruce Hyer defection have an effect on NDP in Thunder Bay?

Nah, if there is one thing all polls agree on it's that support for the Green Party is non existent in Thunder Bay!

[DL]

Surprising to see the NDP losing in Kitchener-Waterloo, but winning in London West and Niagara Falls. I guess it has something to do with the Liberal strength in the Waterloo region picking up. I have no idea why though.

It may also be that that the liberals managed to recruit a strong candidate in Kitchener Waterloo while in London West and Niagara Falls they are running very weak candidates. Also Niagara Falls is demographically much more of a natural NDP seat than the other two...much lower income and more unionized.

[MaxQue]

Could Bruce Hyer defection have an effect on NDP in Thunder Bay?

Nah, if there is one thing all polls agree on it's that support for the Green Party is non existent in Thunder Bay!

Well, I meant it could have decredibilized NDP in Thunder Bay. Greens are obviously weak there, the main local industries aren't green-friendly at all.

[Krago]

Forum: 39 OLP PC 37 NDP 17.

It's almost as if someone in the Liberal war room asked themselves: "How high could be put ourselves in a poll, and how low could we put the NDP, without looking completely ridiculous?"  et voila!

Remember that instant post-debate poll that Forum coughed up on Tuesday night showing the Liberals gaining support after the debate?  The one that showed the NDP at 25% pre-debate?  Fascinating.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, we had the NDP at 17% only a few days ago.

Here's EKOS's daily tracking numbers:

PC: 35.5 (+0.6)
Lib: 34.2 (+0.3)
NDP: 20.5 (n/c)
Grn: 7.4 (-1.0)
Oth: 2 (n/c)

[adma]

Surprising to see the NDP losing in Kitchener-Waterloo, but winning in London West and Niagara Falls. I guess it has something to do with the Liberal strength in the Waterloo region picking up. I have no idea why though.

Unless it's the ghost of pre-byelection patterns rising back to the surface (i.e. K-W NDP in teens, the other two in 20s)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also usual warnings about the merits of constituency polling, etc.

[Hash]

Well, we had the NDP at 17% only a few days ago.

Here's EKOS's daily tracking numbers:

PC: 35.5 (+0.6)
Lib: 34.2 (+0.3)
NDP: 20.5 (n/c)
Grn: 7.4 (-1.0)
Oth: 2 (n/c)

Weirdly, EKOS' LV numbers show a strong Grit lead of ~5pts. While Ipsos tells us that LVs are way more Tory.

[Krago]

What I find strange about the EKOS likely voter model is that it gives Liberal supporters an extra boost (anger gets you half a point, hope and happiness each get you half a point); and there's a chance you could have already voted in the advance poll and still not be considered a likely voter.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/06/modest-listing-in-wynnes-ship-seems-to-have-corrected/

[Krago]

Has anyone found the regional breakdown for yesterday's Forum poll?

[RogueBeaver]

Sun endorses Hudak. So Globe, Post, Sun for Hudak, Star for Wynne. Did I miss anyone?

[Hatman 🍁]

Has anyone found the regional breakdown for yesterday's Forum poll?

I believe this is it: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282014.06.05%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

Sun endorses Hudak. So Globe, Post, Sun for Hudak, Star for Wynne. Did I miss anyone?

Now, which always endorses the NDP, endorsed the Liberals

[DC Al Fine]

Sun endorses Hudak. So Globe, Post, Sun for Hudak, Star for Wynne. Did I miss anyone?

Has the Ottawa Citizen endorsed yet?

[Hatman 🍁]

Sun endorses Hudak. So Globe, Post, Sun for Hudak, Star for Wynne. Did I miss anyone?

Has the Ottawa Citizen endorsed yet?

Not that I know of. Would be surprised if they didn't endorse the PCs. Especially since one of their own is running for the Tories in Ottawa West-Nepean.

[adma]

Now, which always endorses the NDP, endorsed the Liberals

Actually, not quite--they had a sort of "dual editorial endorsement" from NOW's founding duo.

Alice Klein (who tends to be more the "strategic vote" advocate) spoke up on behalf of a Wynne government (which is not quite the same as an indiscriminate "Vote Liberal, wherever", even if she expressed disappointment in Horwath's tactics )
http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=198332
...while Michael Hollett stuck to cheerleeding for Horwath's populist approach
http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=198333

[Hatman 🍁]

Now, which always endorses the NDP, endorsed the Liberals

Actually, not quite--they had a sort of "dual editorial endorsement" from NOW's founding duo.

Alice Klein (who tends to be more the "strategic vote" advocate) spoke up on behalf of a Wynne government (which is not quite the same as an indiscriminate "Vote Liberal, wherever", even if she expressed disappointment in Horwath's tactics )
http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=198332
...while Michael Hollett stuck to cheerleeding for Horwath's populist approach
http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=198333

Well, shame on me for trusting Wikipedia.

[Poirot]

I have noticed Le Droit (Ottawa-Gatineau) endorsed the Liberals because there is no credible alternative.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-droit/opinions/editoriaux/pierre-jury/201406/06/01-4773677-pour-les-liberaux.php