Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Njall]

I'm predicting 50 OLP / 36 PC / 21 NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/06/2014-ontario-election-final-projection.html

Or: 52 - 32 - 23

[cp]

Since it seems to be all the rage today:

Libs: 55
PC: 37
NDP: 15.

[Hash]

I'm very cautiously optimistic, but I always fear a bad surprise. I would think that the Liberals will hold my riding (Ott-Orleans); although I didn't campaign for them this year, I have the feeling that they had a strong ground-game based on the number of times they contacted me and some of the various things I've inferred from emails from the campaign. And from a very micro-level and anecdotal observation, a few houses in my area which in the past didn't have lawn signs had Liberal signs this year.

[DC Al Fine]

48/40/19

Also, PC's barely win the PV.

[King of Kensington]

Might as well update mine:

Popular vote: Liberals 36%, PCs 35%, NDP 23%

Seats: Liberals 47, PCs 39, NDP 21

Tories pick up Brant, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Ottawa-Orleans but lose Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

NDP picks up Sudbury and Windsor West but loses Davenport and Trinity-Spadina to the Liberals.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

For my part, I'm curious to see how Mary Rita Holland does in Kingston. She ain't gonna win, but the NDP ground game here has been incredible. She's been a real workhorse this time around compared to '11. Signs don't really provide much information for an accurate prediction, but Christ... There are a lot of orange ones.

[King of Kensington]

Kingston is fairly similar to Kitchener-Waterloo and London West ridings demographically; i.e. it seems like a seat they could have won a year ago in a by-election with Mary Rita Holland.  

[Hatman 🍁]

For my part, I'm curious to see how Mary Rita Holland does in Kingston. She ain't gonna win, but the NDP ground game here has been incredible. She's been a real workhorse this time around compared to '11. Signs don't really provide much information for an accurate prediction, but Christ... There are a lot of orange ones.

I thought you were in Mississauga?

[Hatman 🍁]

When I (as a foreigner) saw those neck-to-neck-polls on the 9th, I expected a final LIB-surge, which has happened, according to the latest polls. Reason: Hudak is not Red enough for Toronto and NDP haven't managed a clear breakthrough. Remains only the hated goverment-party...Is that right?

Yup. Better the devil you know.

I just voted about 45 minutes ago. No lineup at our polling station (low turnout apartment), but there were long lineups for other polling stations where we voted.

[DC Al Fine]

When I (as a foreigner) saw those neck-to-neck-polls on the 9th, I expected a final LIB-surge, which has happened, according to the latest polls. Reason: Hudak is not Red enough for Toronto and NDP haven't managed a clear breakthrough. Remains only the hated goverment-party...Is that right?

Yup. Better the devil you know.

Ugh, I just don't get the appeal of the Liberals . If we had AV, I'd preference the NDP over the Liberals unless the Liberal was someone like Szabo.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Super early, but currently: Lib 50, PC 33, NDP 17

[Hatman 🍁]

Close to my numbers, of course I overestimated the NDP

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

CBC just projected Liberal government. Still too close to call on majority or minority.

[DC Al Fine]

Lib majority on 36.5% right now... ugh

[Hash]

Glorious news. Thank you, Ontario.

[DC Al Fine]

Greens @ 20% in Parry Sound-Muskoka with > 1/2 the polls in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Many, many ridings still to play for.

[Holmes]

So disappointing that the provincial Liberals have such a hold on Thunder Bay.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CBC have called Oshawa for the NDP

[MaxQue]

NDP gains Oshawa with an big majority. Wierd. 48-30 over PC right now, 2192 majority. Wierd, wierd, wierd.

[Hash]

I would think that the Liberals will hold my riding (Ott-Orleans); although I didn't campaign for them this year, I have the feeling that they had a strong ground-game based on the number of times they contacted me and some of the various things I've inferred from emails from the campaign. And from a very micro-level and anecdotal observation, a few houses in my area which in the past didn't have lawn signs had Liberal signs this year.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC have called Oshawa for the NDP

DEAR LORD

[MaxQue]

It's a disaster for PC. 30%, 28 seats right now.

[Holmes]

Well, Trinity-Spadina is gone. Davenport too, it seems. Liberals in second in Timmins-James Bay. Freaky sh**t.