Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[DL]

It seems close to certain that Ontario will go to the polls this Spring and if not this Spring then sometime in the next year.

The latest poll by EKOS points to a 3-way dead heat:

Ontario Liberals - 32% (down 6% from the 2011 election)
Ontario NDP - 29% (up 6% from '11)
Ontario PCs - 27% (down 8% from '11)
Greens - 8% (up 5%)
Other (whoever they are) - 3% (up 2%)

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_ontario_april_9_2014.pdf

Time to start discussing!

[RogueBeaver]

I still doubt Horwath pulls the plug.

[MaxQue]

I see than Hudak continues to be an liability.

[Hatman 🍁]

I know we (EKOS) are preparing for a June election.

[RogueBeaver]

I know we (EKOS) are preparing for a June election.

You think Horwath will pull the plug? Anyways, I hope the OLP's fate mirrors Marois'.

[adma]

Anyways, I hope the OLP's fate mirrors Marois'.

Though unless we're looking at a real Hudak landslide, Wynne's personally safer than Marois.

[RogueBeaver]

I know. Realistically, I'm hoping for any sort of PC government. Then the beachhead can be expanded, as Harper did after '06.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the Tories win- even a majority, it will likely not result in any seats in the 416, so Wynne is safe in her seat.

I know we (EKOS) are preparing for a June election.

You think Horwath will pull the plug? Anyways, I hope the OLP's fate mirrors Marois'.

That's the feeling I'm getting.

[MaxQue]

And it doesn't look like if someone will get a majority, but I'm not on the ground, so, I might be biaised.

[RogueBeaver]

Hatman: What's changed? My guess was she'd abstain, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

[DL]

Hatman: What's changed? My guess was she'd abstain, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

Why wouldn't Horwath want an election? She has everything to gain and very little to lose - every single solitary poll over the last two years shows Ontario NDP support to be higher than in the 2011 election and that she is the most well-liked leader in Ontario. She has been winning byelections all over ontario in three cases leapfrogging from third to first place. Also, right now the Ontario Liberals are in trouble over the gas plant scandal etc...why give Kathleen Wynne a year to put more distance between herself and McGuinty.

There may be reasons i am not aware of why Horwath might not want an election now - but I cannot imagine what those reasons are - unless the NDP wants another year to raise more money.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman: What's changed? My guess was she'd abstain, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

It's the prevailing mood, really... that there will be a June election. I can't speak for the reasons for or against Horwath pulling the plug. But, that's what I'm hearing.

[lilTommy]

Hatman: What's changed? My guess was she'd abstain, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

Why wouldn't Horwath want an election? She has everything to gain and very little to lose - every single solitary poll over the last two years shows Ontario NDP support to be higher than in the 2011 election and that she is the most well-liked leader in Ontario. She has been winning byelections all over ontario in three cases leapfrogging from third to first place. Also, right now the Ontario Liberals are in trouble over the gas plant scandal etc...why give Kathleen Wynne a year to put more distance between herself and McGuinty.

There may be reasons i am not aware of why Horwath might not want an election now - but I cannot imagine what those reasons are - unless the NDP wants another year to raise more money.

The problem for the NDP is that the Liberals keep putting huge parts, or mostly-similar planks of the ONDP's platform into the budget... well first the OLP rails against them, but in the end they put them in the budget.
The NDP isn't in any rush to go to the polls for what's been stated and some other things like the fact that there hasn't been a poison pill YET in the budget, so they would be blamed for any new election that no one says they want, I could see them abstain again too rather then defeat if only to make Hudak look even worse   The NDP continues to look good and perform well in the House and in polls and by-elections (the longer they wait till an election the more time to fortify those ridings for the NDP) why would they risk this continued improvement and growth unless they were forced to?
My hope is next year since we also have Municipal elections in October;
BUT it might be in the NDP advantage to go this year; next year is also a Federal election where the Liberals are expected to do better then 11, that might have a trickle-down effect on any Ontario election in 2015 unless it's held before the Federal one.
So far this poll is an outlier since the NDP have never really surpassed the Tories yet I don't think?... But it would be interesting to see the dynamics of the next minority if the OLP won and the NDP was the opposition

[Krago]

The Toronto Star published a Forum Research poll today that shows a very different race in Ontario.

PC 38%
Lib 31%
NDP 23%
Green 7%

[RogueBeaver]

Harper has given his Ontarians a green light to campaign provincially.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne takes another leaf from Dithers' playbook.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP will hold 2 days of intense campaign training next week in Toronto. Budget vote won't be for another 6 weeks.

[Hatman 🍁]

A late June election would result in the lowest turnout ever. We might be heading there anyways.

[RogueBeaver]

Interestingly, that last Forum poll which projected a Tory minority said most Tory gains would come from the NDP. Not that it'd be a first.

[DL]

Interestingly, that last Forum poll which projected a Tory minority said most Tory gains would come from the NDP. Not that it'd be a first.

I'm not sure where you that. According that the Forum snapshot (and I am very dubious about Forum) the OLP is down seven points since the last election, the PCs are up three, the NDP is unchanged and the Greens are up four points.

[RogueBeaver]

I meant in seats. Bozinoff projected 49 Tories, 45 Grits, 13 NDP.

[Hash]

Haven't we agreed that pollsters can't do seat projections for sh**t? Especially as far as the ONDP is concerned...

[adma]

Forum's consistently boneheaded about the "seat projection" thing, because there's more to it than rawly using "last election's figures" as a benchmark.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum's consistently boneheaded about the "seat projection" thing, because there's more to it than rawly using "last election's figures" as a benchmark.

Even if they did that, it would be more accurate. Not sure what their methodology is, but it's the worst.

[RogueBeaver]

Would really like Ipsos to take a look.