Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

Oshawa and Northumberland-Quinte West have flipped to the PCs since my post yesterday.

[Krago]

For all this talk of the NDP 'falling apart', or Mr. Hudak killing 100,000 government employees (Soylent Green, anyone?), the campaign has basically stalled at the status quo ante.  The debate matters just to give the media types a new narrative to discuss.

[Krago]

Except the Toronto Star, of course.  They get their narrative delivered daily from the Liberal war room.

[Hatman 🍁]

Did anyone else get a sickly feeling with the FR poll? A tie plays well into the Liberal game of scaring soft progressive votes into not voting NDP. Maybe I'm just being overly cynical.

If you look at the regional tabs, the NDP is up in SW and Toronto which is where they need to be up in.

[Citizen Hats]

Did anyone else get a sickly feeling with the FR poll? A tie plays well into the Liberal game of scaring soft progressive votes into not voting NDP. Maybe I'm just being overly cynical.

If you look at the regional tabs, the NDP is up in SW and Toronto which is where they need to be up in.

Bozinoff said that the abortion stance of the Fed Libs was costing them votes without even bothering to poll on that question.  While Forum does have high Liberal numbers typically, that has only been since Trudeau was leader.  Given the nature of the people who would vote for the Liberals with Trudeau but not without, I highly doubt that we have Forum in the bag, but rather that their methodology just happens to pick up that sort of voter.  CRA on the other hand...

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos LV: PC 41 OLP 29 NDP 25. EV PC 36 OLP 34 NDP 23.

[Hatman 🍁]

I do not understand why Ipsos doesn't ask about the Greens.

[Linus Van Pelt]

It appears from the crosstabs that the two main reasons for Ipsos's likely/eligible split are: (1) seniors expressing more confidence that they will vote than youngs, and (2) men expressing more confidence that they will vote than women.

The first of these is almost certainly right, but the second seems a bit dubious; it might just be men being more likely to express confident opinions in general.

[Citizen Hats]

It appears from the crosstabs that the two main reasons for Ipsos's likely/eligible split are: (1) seniors expressing more confidence that they will vote than youngs, and (2) men expressing more confidence that they will vote than women.

The first of these is almost certainly right, but the second seems a bit dubious; it might just be men being more likely to express confident opinions in general.

It's stuff like this that is why I regard LV numbers as naught but voodoo.  They're simply not sensible enough to apply numbers too, and they give a false sense of certainty by their numerical-ness

[adma]

I'm also wondering if a lot of the PC "likely vote" is heavily weighted in seats where they typically already have high turnouts and massive margins--the Nepean-Carleton types of seats IOW...

[lilTommy]

I'm also wondering if a lot of the PC "likely vote" is heavily weighted in seats where they typically already have high turnouts and massive margins--the Nepean-Carleton types of seats IOW...

Yes, I think this is part of the problem for the Tories, they rake in huge margins in some seats where they don't need the vote; The NDP to some degree has the same problem, used to be worse I think, now they seem to be be spreading around the vote slightly better.
This is how Liberals win, the old saying is "a mile wide, inch thick" their vote is thinner in each riding they tend to win (of course they have their strongholds too) but across the province its rather consistent so they have won seats by slim margins

[RogueBeaver]

It worked fine here in QC (Ipsos/A-R/Leger/CROP), but we'll wait and see. Ipsos is predicting turnout of 51%. Predicted 72% here, it was 71.4%.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm predicting another sub 50% turnout. Remember, this is a summer election (well, not technically) following a minority government. I suppose the race being close will drive up turnout, but it didn't much last time (although, this race is closer).

Anyways, here is my daily projection (following Ipsos' numbers):



Liberals take a hit in Eastern Ontario at the expense of the Tories, which flips 3 seats (Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell).

Also, Trinity-Spadina flips back to the Liberals.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos PPM LV: Hudak 38, Wynne 32, Horwath 30. EV: Wynne/Horwath 34, Hudak 32.

[RogueBeaver]

LOL Walkom: floats the idea of PC-NDP coop or even coalition.

[Hatman 🍁]

LOL Walkom: floats the idea of PC-NDP coop or even coalition.

Toronto Star changes tactics.

[RogueBeaver]

Laurentia speaks: I wouldn't be surprised if they endorse Wynne or don't endorse.

[RogueBeaver]

Peterson and Eves speak.

[RogueBeaver]

Ottawa ridings to watch.

[RogueBeaver]

Barely 24 hours after the Star floats a ridiculous attack on Horwath, Wynne repeats it in public. She also said Horwath sold out her commitment to social justice and took an "unprincipled stance" (Grits talking about principle, ROFLMAO).

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa ridings to watch.

No mention of Ottawa Centre (not that I'm under any delusions that it will even be close, but it would've been nice to mention it)

[RogueBeaver]

Star looks like it might endorse Wynne as the True Progressive (TM).

[DL]

Apparently Oracle Research has released a traditional live interview phone poll of 1,000 that has the PCs at 36 down 5 points from their poll a month ago, the Liberals are 32 which is up 1 and the NDP is steady at 25 percent. They have the Greens up from 3% to 7%....I think it's notable that Oracle is the only poll this entire campaign that is based on what used to be the norm...a phone poll with real live interviewers

[Hatman 🍁]

More info:

http://huffstrategy.com/MediaManager/release/OraclePoll-Research-Inc-Environmental-Communication-Options/30-5-14/Ontario-election-tightens-for-front-runners---New-Poll/2977.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Hash was this you?



What happens when you light election signs on fire