PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[SnowLabrador]

Democrats thinking populist rural voters will vote for Fetterman just because he looks like a big tough guy is just as stupid as Republicans thinking they'll get 25% of the black vote if they nominate Candace Owens for president

Well, Youngkin got close to 25% of the black vote and he's white.

[SnowLabrador]

Lamb will be another Sinema if he wins the primary. It has to be Fetterman.

[SnowLabrador]

If Parnell is forced out of the race, this race moves to Likely R.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/19/pennsylvania-republicans-dr-oz-senate-bid-523023

Lol Dr. Oz?

If he’s the nominee he either loses by 10 or wins by 10, no in-between

He could win by 10 if it's indeed an R+8 year.

[SnowLabrador]

And that's a wrap for the political career of Sean Parnell, folks.

And the chances of Democrats winning this seat.

[SnowLabrador]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

I don't think Trump's an atheist, but it does seem like he's not as devout as he claimed to be during his campaigns. That being said, this thread is about Oz, so I'll just say: I don't think his religious affiliation matters too much electorally. It's not 1960 anymore.

[SnowLabrador]

Fetterman is a weak candidate. Lamb might be the better option here.

[SnowLabrador]

Yet another piece of evidence that Fetterman sees the primary as his without having to work for it. This shows that he's a bad general election candidate.

[SnowLabrador]

To be honest, its been very clear from the very beginning that Lamb has been running for US Senate out of sheer spite, and has not been running a serious campaign.

This is not true at all? What? All 4 are running serious races.

Agreed. I'm not a big fan of Lamb, but I'd hardly say that he's running solely out of spite.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

Lol Trafalgar...

Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

It doesn't matter. No Democrat is winning this race, this year.

[SnowLabrador]

I think the DSCC is right to go to bat for Lamb, since Fetterman's running a lazy campaign. I guess that's who I endorse, although I hope he's not another Manchin/Sinema.

[SnowLabrador]

My prediction: Fetterman wins the primary, has a slight lead in the general election polling, then loses by 5-7 points to McCormick.

[SnowLabrador]

Honestly, Fetterman's a terrible candidate at this point. I'm for this, even if I agree with Fetterman more on policy. The most important thing is winning. Of course, it's not likely than any Democrat can beat any Republican in Pennsylvania this year.

[SnowLabrador]

Well, I guess I don't need to strategically vote for Fetterman if he's up by 30 points. If he does win the primary, I hope and pray that he starts taking the campaign more seriously. If he campaigns as hard in the general as Malcolm has in the primary, that would be great.

How bad of a campaign can he be running if he is up 30? Also this month old poll is sponsored by a superpac backing Lamb so it's doubly good for Fetterman.

Name recognition, I guess. Plus people think he's the most "electable" option, maybe. It was the same way with Joe Biden in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

It'll be more like 4-7 points. This is a red wave year.

[SnowLabrador]

Both Lamb and Fetterman are full throttle with TV ads. I've seen both recently on cable like CNN also local like ABC.

Ads aren't enough. Fetterman needs a ground game. Of course, neither will win the general election.

[SnowLabrador]

Meanwhile, the Republicans are debating and talking over each other about how which degree of authoritarianism they would implement to prevent future imaginary election fraud

I watched part of David Pakman's livestream of that debate. Even by GOP standards, it was unhinged.

[SnowLabrador]

That sucks. I hope he gets better soon.

[SnowLabrador]

I hope Barnette wins the primary. She's the only one Fetterman has a snowball's chance in hell of beating.

[SnowLabrador]

Oz is the weaker candidate. Stop the count!

[SnowLabrador]

I think Oz wins by mid-single digits. Fetterman is running a very lazy campaign. Sad!

[SnowLabrador]

I think Oz wins by mid-single digits. Fetterman is running a very lazy campaign. Sad!

...... he's been out because of the stroke the last few weeks ....

I'm convinced you're just a robot at this point.

Even before the primary, he was just coasting on name recognition. That will not work against Oz, not in this environment.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Oz wins by 4-5 points based on the national environment based on Republican voters holding their noses for him. No poll can convince me otherwise; I'll believe Fetterman winning when I see it. Oz's issues won't matter; all swing voters care about is MUH GAS PRICES!