NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[MT Treasurer]

I know many Democrats here and in other states have already ruled out a Senate run, but I wouldn’t read too much into this. I expect at least one of them (maybe Stein) to change their mind, and I agree with Mizzouian that McCready would be a strong recruit as well.

[MT Treasurer]

This race is arguably as close to a pure Tossup as you could possibly get. While Trump is probably slightly favored in NC in 2020, the Democrats's ground game here is pretty strong and Tillis is a fairly weak incumbent with incredibly poor approval numbers. He really can’t afford to underperform Trump by more than 2-3%, if that. NC is really where things start to get interesting after relatively certain pick-ups in CO, AZ, and AL. I concur with Mizzouian that the Democratic path to a majority definitely runs through NC, with GA, MT, MI, and TX as likely tipping point states IMO, but I don’t think IA and ME are as competitive as people are making them out to be, at least not at this point in time.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats can easily get to 49 with AZ/CO/NC (-AL), but getting to 50 will be the challenge. It’s why they need Bullock to run for MT-SEN.

[MT Treasurer]

Of all the R-held seats this one is probably closest to being a pure Tossup.

[MT Treasurer]

High Point University poll:

Tillis approval: 27/38 (-11)
Trump approval: 42/50 (-8)
Cooper approval: 43/30 (+13)

https://wcti12.com/news/state-news/hpu-nc-poll-presidential-approval-at-42-governor-approval-at-43

Awful numbers for Tillis but par for the course. Not that it matters since Tillis is the INCUMBENT™ in this race.

[MT Treasurer]

High Point University poll:

Tillis approval: 27/38 (-11)
Trump approval: 42/50 (-8)
Cooper approval: 43/30 (+13)

https://wcti12.com/news/state-news/hpu-nc-poll-presidential-approval-at-42-governor-approval-at-43

Awful numbers for Tillis but par for the course. Not that it matters since Tillis is the INCUMBENT™ in this race.

RoJo, The Tumor, and Burr were in similar straits at this time in 2015.  That's why the recently returned Russ Feingold, and new Senators McGutless and Ross did an amazing job of blocking Kavanaugh!

Toomey and Burr were never polling this badly.

In fact, Toomey and Burr were both up bigly in September 2015

PPP did a poll in September 2015, they gave Burr a 29/40 approval rate. You should verify your facts before writing here

No, he’s right. Polling at this point in 2015 never showed Burr consistently trailing any Democratic challenger, and the NC Senate race wasn’t even considered seriously competitive in September 2015. Any way you cut it, Tillis is in a worse position than Burr.

[MT Treasurer]

Even if Cunningham turned out to be a "weak candidate" and Greenfield turned out to be a "strong candidate", NC would still be far more likely to flip than IA.

[MT Treasurer]

Atlas democrats should really stop to act as if Trump were toxic in NC, as things stand as of now, Trump is more likely than not to win NC

Atlas Democrats should really stop being overconfident and paying attention to petty details like approval numbers, other polling, previous election results, and consistent trends.

[MT Treasurer]

I used to think this was more winnable for Democrats than GA-S, but I’m not so sure anymore with NC's Democratic trend lagging behind GA's, Cunningham unable to pull away in the primary, and Tillis less and less likely to significantly underperform Trump. Still a Tossup/Tilt R, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans are running ads for Erica Smith, touting her as "the only proven progressive in the race."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/politics/north-carolina-republican-democratic-primary/index.html

[MT Treasurer]

This year just keeps getting worse and worse for Senate Republicans. The Senate is already a Tossup, and if there’s another special election in NC, Democrats have a clear path to a majority even if Trump is reelected.

[MT Treasurer]

In 2019, the senate looked like a steep uphill battle. At the dawn of 2020, the path became clear, though narrow. Now, the senate becomes a genuine pure tossup with the possibility of a huge Democratic majority.

My, how things change.

Just to underscore how awful this election cycle has been for Republicans, this is a list of Republican-held Senate seats Democrats have made competitive and could actually win (especially for those who still doubt that there’s a path to a Democratic majority because #polarization or whatever):

Low-hanging fruit
*CO (probably flipping even if Trump wins reelection)
*AZ (probably flipping even if Trump wins reelection)
*NC-S
*NC
*GA-S
*GA
*MT
*ME

Expand the Map: Races which are less competitive but far from safe R
*KS
*TX
*AK
(*IA if things get really bad for Republicans)
(*KY if things get really bad for Republicans)

Whether Jones loses or not (AL Republicans seem to be trying their best to make sure he doesn’t), flipping the Senate is more than doable.

[MT Treasurer]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

[MT Treasurer]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

So, Kay Hagan 2.0

Well, unlike Cunningham, Kay Hagan hadn’t run for statewide office before she jumped into the Senate race. Overall, it’s not a far-fetched comparison, but I don’t see Cunningham doing as well as Hagan (Tillis is controversial but he’s not the inept campaigner that Dole was + NC is a little less "flexible" than it was in 2008).

[MT Treasurer]

that pathetic braindead crippled Nazi sympathizer

New low, even by this forum's standards.

[MT Treasurer]

More from Patrick Howley, who broke this story: Todd has nudes, Cunningham and Todd were intimate for a week in his home and there are more texts inbound that he'll publish in the coming days.

Time to go nuclear, Thom.

Senator Bob Hugin sends his regards.

Slight difference: Cal Cunningham can’t win with Democrats/liberals alone.

[MT Treasurer]

It would probably work better for Cunningham to argue he'll be a check on a Trump second term lol. People simply won't believe Biden is inevitable, no matter what the polls show.

Trump/Cunningham voters aren’t supporting Cunningham because they went a "check" on Trump, so that would be a really, really bad strategy on his part. He can’t afford to nationalize this race even further, especially when Tillis has done such a poor job of executing this strategy himself and is underperforming among R-leaning voters.

Also (not related to your comment but the last two pages of this thread), no politically aware person buys into the "check" rhetoric at this point. I’m not going to deny that I’m excited for McConnell to put the same "check" on Biden's presidency that Democrats were so eager to put on Trump, though....