NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[lfromnj]

In the text messages to her friend, Guzman Todd told her she was intimate with Cunningham in his home, which she later characterized as “weird.”

In another exchange, Guzman Todd indicated that she was frustrated by the limited attention that he showed her.

“I’m just going to send to his opponent his naked photos,” Guzman Todd wrote. “That will teach him.”

Not sure if it was extortion, perhaps intent for revenge porn but there isn't anything that mentions Cunningham being informed of the nude leaks. Also she might have been joking with her friend but yes very shady all around and Cunningham should have the right to make a report if she blackmailed him.

[Continential]

If Cunningham loses, Thom Tillis is the luckiest man in the Senate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What worries me is the potential for more shoes to drop.

[Suburbia]

Why him? Why not recruit Jeff Jackson or Josh Stein? I'm sure that with them chances to defeat Tillis would be far, far higher

This.

Jeff Jackson would have won.

I am changing this race to Lean R, sadly.

Cunningham needs to address this right away

NC has duds as Washington representatives. Dole, Edwards, Virginia Foxx, Burr, Hagan, Tillis.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why him? Why not recruit Jeff Jackson or Josh Stein? I'm sure that with them chances to defeat Tillis would be far, far higher

This.

Jeff Jackson would have won.

I am changing this race to Lean R, sadly.

Cunningham needs to address this right away

NC has duds as Washington representatives. Dole, Edwards, Virginia Foxx, Burr, Hagan, Tillis.

Lean R seems quite impulsive. Most of the scandals thus far haven't really taken root and partisanship usually wins out. I agree this doesn't help Cunningham, and this race moves from lean D to tilt D in my view, but I feel like people forget that pre-scandal Cunningham had a 6%+ polling lead on average, and was very close to 49% in polls. (48.2% was his peak in my polling average)

[Skye]

Go to horny jail

*BONK*

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Why him? Why not recruit Jeff Jackson or Josh Stein? I'm sure that with them chances to defeat Tillis would be far, far higher

NC has duds as Washington representatives. Dole, Edwards, Virginia Foxx, Burr, Hagan, Tillis.

I was looking for counterpoints to this and your earlier point regarding NC electing terrible Senators and I have to admit, the crappiness goes back a long way. I presume most Democrats liked Hagan, but otherwise there isn't much to be impressed with: AFAIK most Republicans find Tillis kind of mediocre and Democrats dislike him, John Edwards was a scumbag, Elizabeth Dole was an awful campaigner, Burr practised insider trading, Faircloth barely served and then you are back to Jesse Helms (ugh) and Terry Sanford. A quick skim of Sanford's bio suggests he was kind of effective for the one term in which he served but he was clearly dissatisfied with the job.

[KaiserDave]

Agh. This Todd woman seems awful.

Horrible judgement exercised by Cal. Roy Cooper proves himself to the true family man "aw shucks" superior North Carolina Democrat.

Should have recruited Jeff Jackson. However....this race is far from over. This new revelation doesn't hurt Cal any more than before.

[Suburbia]

Why him? Why not recruit Jeff Jackson or Josh Stein? I'm sure that with them chances to defeat Tillis would be far, far higher

NC has duds as Washington representatives. Dole, Edwards, Virginia Foxx, Burr, Hagan, Tillis.

I was looking for counterpoints to this and your earlier point regarding NC electing terrible Senators and I have to admit, the crappiness goes back a long way. I presume most Democrats liked Hagan, but otherwise there isn't much to be impressed with: AFAIK most Republicans find Tillis kind of mediocre and Democrats dislike him, John Edwards was a scumbag, Elizabeth Dole was an awful campaigner, Burr practised insider trading, Faircloth barely served and then you are back to Jesse Helms (ugh) and Terry Sanford. A quick skim of Sanford's bio suggests he was kind of effective for the one term in which he served but he was clearly dissatisfied with the job.

Helms' politics was nasty, but he is a legendary figure in American politics.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why him? Why not recruit Jeff Jackson or Josh Stein? I'm sure that with them chances to defeat Tillis would be far, far higher

NC has duds as Washington representatives. Dole, Edwards, Virginia Foxx, Burr, Hagan, Tillis.

I was looking for counterpoints to this and your earlier point regarding NC electing terrible Senators and I have to admit, the crappiness goes back a long way. I presume most Democrats liked Hagan, but otherwise there isn't much to be impressed with: AFAIK most Republicans find Tillis kind of mediocre and Democrats dislike him, John Edwards was a scumbag, Elizabeth Dole was an awful campaigner, Burr practised insider trading, Faircloth barely served and then you are back to Jesse Helms (ugh) and Terry Sanford. A quick skim of Sanford's bio suggests he was kind of effective for the one term in which he served but he was clearly dissatisfied with the job.

Well the seat is cursed after all; the incumbent always loses. They are duds, but they don't last long

[SnowLabrador]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Why is Atlas so reactionary? I thought the ethics scandal was supposed to make CO-SEN close, but Hickenlooper is still just about as well as Biden in polling, despite running against an incumbent. Yes; this could go downhill, but it's not guarenteed to swing this seat in Tillis's favor by any means. We literally just got a Tillis + 5 poll post-texts being released.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Why is Atlas so reactionary? I thought the ethics scandal was supposed to make CO-SEN close, but Hickenlooper is still just about as well as Biden in polling, despite running against an incumbent. Yes; this could go downhill, but it's not guarenteed to swing this seat in Tillis's favor by any means. We literally just got a Tillis + 5 poll post-texts being released.

He always have been, along with Indy Rep, they think we are dealing in a normal election yr, it's not, it's 8 percent unemployment, not ,4 percent unemployment, the same as it was in 2004 v 2008

[TML]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Senator Bob Hugin sends his regards.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Senator Bob Hugin sends his regards.

Menendez won by 12% while Democrats won the House PV by 20% despite Republicans having most of the incumbency advantages. It's clear these things can have an impact, but it's hard to swing a federal race super heavily unless it's something really really bad, and someone cheating is certainly not the worst scandal.

[WD]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

lmao

[Landslide Lyndon]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Senator Bob Hugin sends his regards.

Menendez won by 12% while Democrats won the House PV by 20% despite Republicans having most of the incumbency advantages. It's clear these things can have an impact, but it's hard to swing a federal race super heavily unless it's something really really bad, and someone cheating is certainly not the worst scandal.

My impression is that Menendez was more hurt by allegations of corruption than anything else.

[Skye]

Why is Atlas so reactionary?

Welcome to Atlas, basically.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It sounds like this woman threatened revenge porn... which is a felony in both NC and CA.

Yeah, Cunningham was stupid but this gave me flashbacks of Katie Hill.
 

[We Live in Black and White]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Senator Bob Hugin sends his regards.

Menendez won by 12% while Democrats won the House PV by 20% despite Republicans having most of the incumbency advantages. It's clear these things can have an impact, but it's hard to swing a federal race super heavily unless it's something really really bad, and someone cheating is certainly not the worst scandal.

Especially if Cunningham can make the case that he's the victim of a literal crime, which is looking pretty likely. Yeah, he's right to be honest and apologize, but this woman is straight-up blackmailing him.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Senator Bob Hugin sends his regards.

Menendez won by 12% while Democrats won the House PV by 20% despite Republicans having most of the incumbency advantages. It's clear these things can have an impact, but it's hard to swing a federal race super heavily unless it's something really really bad, and someone cheating is certainly not the worst scandal.

Especially if Cunningham can make the case that he's the victim of a literal crime, which is looking pretty likely. Yeah, he's right to be honest and apologize, but this woman is straight-up blackmailing him.

"Why is Cunningham outperforming Biden's margin with a high number of undecided voters winning over Trump supporters? A look at bipartisan backlash to #metoo gone too far." - Chris Cillizza

[RogueBeaver]

More from Patrick Howley, who broke this story: Todd has nudes, Cunningham and Todd were intimate for a week in his home and there are more texts inbound that he'll publish in the coming days.

[Knives]

Do people actually care? Like does this really change votes...?

[Sestak]

More from Patrick Howley, who broke this story: Todd has nudes, Cunningham and Todd were intimate for a week in his home and there are more texts inbound that he'll publish in the coming days.

These texts...honestly make Todd look worse than they make Cunningham look. Seems like a pointless attempt to drag out a whole bunch of nothing as long as possible.

[Devils30]

I'm not sure this will help Tillis enough. He's seen as a sleazeball establishment guy with a -22 favorable.