NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[GeneralMacArthur]

Not surprising that Tillis would be the first to do this. Frankly, while their are risks of base demoralization, the Senate Republicans should go all in this strategy. Its probably their only slim chance left in a scenario that doesn't involve a substantial Trump recovery.

This strategy drives me nuts.  Mitch McConnell isn't a "check" on Biden's power.  Mitch threw out the entire concept of checks and balances.  He openly brags that his entire strategy under a Democratic presidency is to block everything, impede all legislation, smash all the levers of government and prevent the president from doing a damn thing.

Even worse is the Republican House under Obama, which intentionally make bad things happen so they could blame them on Obama.

The GOP needs to figure out how to be a good opposition party if they're going to make this argument.  I can't believe voters want another 4 years of a Democratic president trying to do literally anything and getting stopped in his tracks by Mitch McConnell abusing the Senate rulebook and trampling all over the Constitution.  People complained non-stop about lack of action when Obama was in office, now they're going to vote for more gridlock?

[GeneralMacArthur]

in other words, what Xing said, lol

[Mr.Phips]

Ok so by this logic, Tillis supported Democrats winning the Senate in 2016 and 2018 to be a check on Trump and would support Democrats winning the Senate in 2020 if Trump is re-elected?  Cunningham should ask him this and get him on the record to expose whether he is a hypocrite or not.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Purely anecdotal, but I did some texting into NC for Biden today and had a couple people say they wouldn't vote for Cal because of the scandal, so...maybe not the best sign.

[Stranger in a strange land]

How is Thom Tillis's approval so low that he appears to still be losing to a guy who's basically Will Ferrel's character from The Campaign?

[Del Tachi]

Ok so by this logic, Tillis supported Democrats winning the Senate in 2016 and 2018 to be a check on Trump and would support Democrats winning the Senate in 2020 if Trump is re-elected?  Cunningham should ask him this and get him on the record to expose whether he is a hypocrite or not.

No.  Because radical Democrat presidents deserve a check on their power while Republicans ones do not.  Democrats believe this too, just in the opposite partisan direction.  It’s not hypocritical.   

[President Johnson]

Purely anecdotal, but I did some texting into NC for Biden today and had a couple people say they wouldn't vote for Cal because of the scandal, so...maybe not the best sign.

I wouldn't count on that based on two opinions, but ridiculous position. If you fully support Joe Biden, you should vote for Democrats in senate races, since large parts of the Biden/Harris agenda won't be enacted into law if Mitch keeps running the senate.

I think the "scandal" is overblown anyway. People might feel it was inappropriate for him to do so, but it's not like he's accused of rape or anything with kids. That should be a dealbreaker and have legal consequences, but texting an adult or even an affair that was consensual isn't worth losing the senate by voting against him.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Purely anecdotal, but I did some texting into NC for Biden today and had a couple people say they wouldn't vote for Cal because of the scandal, so...maybe not the best sign.

If someone told me this, I would text them:

"I'm sorry to hear that and hope you will reconsider.  This race is absolutely crucial to taking control of the Senate.  If Mitch McConnell holds the Senate for the next two years 51-49 because we lost in North Carolina, we will all suffer and Biden will be unable to give this country the healing it desperately needs.  Please take this into consideration."

If you vote against Cunningham because of a sex scandal, and then he loses the race and Mitch keeps the Senate, will you wake up on Wednesday, feeling proud of your vote?

[Woody]

A senate GOP majority is the only thing stopping dems from packing the courts and taking over everything if Biden were to become president.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1314926460692582400?s=20

Wonder if other Senate Republicans will follow suit

Not this s*** again. Republicans would not be a “check” on Biden, they’d be a pair of handcuffs. They’d stop at no means, no matter how corrupt and unethical, to stop him from doing anything to help Americans, and happily let the country go to hell so that they can blame it on him and win again. People thinking about voting Biden and Republican downballot need to understand this. Biden and a Republican Congress would not play footsie and make America a moderate wonderland again.

The Democratic rebuttal to this has to be two things. 1) The election isn’t over yet. 2) Republicans like Tillis have proven that they won’t be a check on anything, since they’ve shown time and time again that they’ll vote with Trump and McConnell without question, without any concern for Americans. They can’t be trusted to bring any kind of balance to Congress.

Newsflash: THIS STRATEGY ISN"T AIMED AT YOUR VOTE

This kind of strategy is aimed at rich suburbanites, who are center right but hate Trump's guts. People who aren't on board with Biden's agenda or at least not as a whole and thus don't feel comfortable with him having a blank check to implement it. They are just voting for him to get rid of the Orange buffoon.

Why is this forum full of such smart people so clueless when it comes to elections. "Why would anybody vote for Biden and Tillis", I see this everywhere. It isn't that complicated, idiosyncratic voters are a thing and they often end up deciding close elections. Not everyone is as engaged and knowledgeable about politics as us, and we should be mindful of that when getting outraged at the thought that there might be Anti-Trump voters who want Biden to get elected to get rid of this incompetent administration, but don't want some or all of Biden's proposals.


Tillis is very much dialed into this mindset as a business Republican from a business oriented community of probably now ex-Republicans in the Charlotte Area, hence why it is not surprising that he would be the first to break ranks and embrace such a strategy.

[GALeftist]

A senate GOP majority is the only thing stopping dems from packing the courts and taking over everything if Biden were to become president.

An eloquent argument for a vote for Cal Cunningham, Woodbury.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1314926460692582400?s=20

Wonder if other Senate Republicans will follow suit

Not this s*** again. Republicans would not be a “check” on Biden, they’d be a pair of handcuffs. They’d stop at no means, no matter how corrupt and unethical, to stop him from doing anything to help Americans, and happily let the country go to hell so that they can blame it on him and win again. People thinking about voting Biden and Republican downballot need to understand this. Biden and a Republican Congress would not play footsie and make America a moderate wonderland again.

The Democratic rebuttal to this has to be two things. 1) The election isn’t over yet. 2) Republicans like Tillis have proven that they won’t be a check on anything, since they’ve shown time and time again that they’ll vote with Trump and McConnell without question, without any concern for Americans. They can’t be trusted to bring any kind of balance to Congress.

Newsflash: THIS STRATEGY ISN"T AIMED AT YOUR VOTE

This kind of strategy is aimed at rich suburbanites, who are center right but hate Trump's guts. People who aren't on board with Biden's agenda or at least not as a whole and thus don't feel comfortable with him having a blank check to implement it. They are just voting for him to get rid of the Orange buffoon.

Why is this forum full of such smart people so clueless when it comes to elections. "Why would anybody vote for Biden and Tillis", I see this everywhere. It isn't that complicated, idiosyncratic voters are a thing and they often end up deciding close elections. Not everyone is as engaged and knowledgeable about politics as us, and we should be mindful of that when getting outraged at the thought that there might be Anti-Trump voters who want Biden to get elected to get rid of this incompetent administration, but don't want some or all of Biden's proposals.

I agree with your general point that people thinking themselves themselves and the people they know are representative of the entire electorate is annoying, but I also feel like Atlas stereotypes entire groups of voters instead of looking at the more complex shifts. For example, "Rich Suburbanites" seems kind of vague, and the idea of a wealthy moderate well educated Romney Republican seems more like a stereotype than a large voting block. We treat Suburban Women, WWC, Hispanics, and other groups as monoliths when they are really more complex than that, which is why I really dislike it when people say "Biden will win TX because suburban women". Also, at this point, I think turnout is more important than the "swing voter", though both are relevant.

Anyways, I agree with your point that most voters tend to be stupid, and can vote for or against someone based on their party, soundbites, or just what they're friends say, and this cycle, most evidence suggests that partisanship will be the biggest factor in most of these senate races, as it was in 2016 and 2018.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1314926460692582400?s=20

Wonder if other Senate Republicans will follow suit

Not this s*** again. Republicans would not be a “check” on Biden, they’d be a pair of handcuffs. They’d stop at no means, no matter how corrupt and unethical, to stop him from doing anything to help Americans, and happily let the country go to hell so that they can blame it on him and win again. People thinking about voting Biden and Republican downballot need to understand this. Biden and a Republican Congress would not play footsie and make America a moderate wonderland again.

The Democratic rebuttal to this has to be two things. 1) The election isn’t over yet. 2) Republicans like Tillis have proven that they won’t be a check on anything, since they’ve shown time and time again that they’ll vote with Trump and McConnell without question, without any concern for Americans. They can’t be trusted to bring any kind of balance to Congress.

Newsflash: THIS STRATEGY ISN"T AIMED AT YOUR VOTE

This kind of strategy is aimed at rich suburbanites, who are center right but hate Trump's guts. People who aren't on board with Biden's agenda or at least not as a whole and thus don't feel comfortable with him having a blank check to implement it. They are just voting for him to get rid of the Orange buffoon.

Why is this forum full of such smart people so clueless when it comes to elections. "Why would anybody vote for Biden and Tillis", I see this everywhere. It isn't that complicated, idiosyncratic voters are a thing and they often end up deciding close elections. Not everyone is as engaged and knowledgeable about politics as us, and we should be mindful of that when getting outraged at the thought that there might be Anti-Trump voters who want Biden to get elected to get rid of this incompetent administration, but don't want some or all of Biden's proposals.


Tillis is very much dialed into this mindset as a business Republican from a business oriented community of probably now ex-Republicans in the Charlotte Area, hence why it is not surprising that he would be the first to break ranks and embrace such a strategy.

I'd argue more polarization and gridlock for another 4-8 years would just lead to more people that center right voters would hate just like Trump. Ofc it's kinda frustrating from a partisan red avatar prospective not to mention and not many even educated voters think 4-8 years in advance.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Purely anecdotal, but I did some texting into NC for Biden today and had a couple people say they wouldn't vote for Cal because of the scandal, so...maybe not the best sign.

I wouldn't count on that based on two opinions, but ridiculous position. If you fully support Joe Biden, you should vote for Democrats in senate races, since large parts of the Biden/Harris agenda won't be enacted into law if Mitch keeps running the senate.

I think the "scandal" is overblown anyway. People might feel it was inappropriate for him to do so, but it's not like he's accused of rape or anything with kids. That should be a dealbreaker and have legal consequences, but texting an adult or even an affair that was consensual isn't worth losing the senate by voting against him.

I think you underestimate how some people view cheating. Some see it as a sign of general untrustworthiness, which is something voters told me quite a bit.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Purely anecdotal, but I did some texting into NC for Biden today and had a couple people say they wouldn't vote for Cal because of the scandal, so...maybe not the best sign.

I wouldn't count on that based on two opinions, but ridiculous position. If you fully support Joe Biden, you should vote for Democrats in senate races, since large parts of the Biden/Harris agenda won't be enacted into law if Mitch keeps running the senate.

I think the "scandal" is overblown anyway. People might feel it was inappropriate for him to do so, but it's not like he's accused of rape or anything with kids. That should be a dealbreaker and have legal consequences, but texting an adult or even an affair that was consensual isn't worth losing the senate by voting against him.

I think you underestimate how some people view cheating. Some see it as a sign of general untrustworthiness, which is something voters told me quite a bit.

Who were these voters that you were reaching out to? Were they reliable voters, new voters, unreliable voters, voters you were trying to convert, ect? Also, about what % of them seemed to indicate their view of Cunningham had become less favorable to the point where they are on the fence or clearly not voting for him?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Purely anecdotal, but I did some texting into NC for Biden today and had a couple people say they wouldn't vote for Cal because of the scandal, so...maybe not the best sign.

I wouldn't count on that based on two opinions, but ridiculous position. If you fully support Joe Biden, you should vote for Democrats in senate races, since large parts of the Biden/Harris agenda won't be enacted into law if Mitch keeps running the senate.

I think the "scandal" is overblown anyway. People might feel it was inappropriate for him to do so, but it's not like he's accused of rape or anything with kids. That should be a dealbreaker and have legal consequences, but texting an adult or even an affair that was consensual isn't worth losing the senate by voting against him.

I think you underestimate how some people view cheating. Some see it as a sign of general untrustworthiness, which is something voters told me quite a bit.

I have said many times that I got a smarmy, sleazeball John Edwards vide from Cal Cunningham and I am not alone in that opinion. The thing is until now there was nothing tangible to back that up. Now on the other hand...

Another factor that people need to consider is that this is the same state and thus there is sort of latent distrust because of the background with Edwards and other 2000s Democrats and their corruption. For the past several years, that hadn't been in the news because it had been Tillis, Trump and McCrory as the dominant story lines and then with Cooper, you had one of the few decent Democrats being the contrast.

This situation with Cunningham reminds me a lot of the late 2000s when the news was plastered with various Democratic scandals locally, but compressed into a much shorter time frame right during an election.

[Calthrina950]

Purely anecdotal, but I did some texting into NC for Biden today and had a couple people say they wouldn't vote for Cal because of the scandal, so...maybe not the best sign.

I wouldn't count on that based on two opinions, but ridiculous position. If you fully support Joe Biden, you should vote for Democrats in senate races, since large parts of the Biden/Harris agenda won't be enacted into law if Mitch keeps running the senate.

I think the "scandal" is overblown anyway. People might feel it was inappropriate for him to do so, but it's not like he's accused of rape or anything with kids. That should be a dealbreaker and have legal consequences, but texting an adult or even an affair that was consensual isn't worth losing the senate by voting against him.

I think you underestimate how some people view cheating. Some see it as a sign of general untrustworthiness, which is something voters told me quite a bit.

I have said many times that I got a smarmy, sleazeball John Edwards vide from Cal Cunningham and I am not alone in that opinion. The thing is until now there was nothing tangible to back that up. Now on the other hand...

Another factor that people need to consider is that this is the same state and thus there is sort of latent distrust because of the background with Edwards and other 2000s Democrats and their corruption. For the past several years, that hadn't been in the news because it had been Tillis, Trump and McCrory as the dominant story lines and then with Cooper, you had one of the few decent Democrats being the contrast.

This situation with Cunningham reminds me a lot of the late 2000s when the news was plastered with various Democratic scandals locally, but compressed into a much shorter time frame right during an election.

Given the recent developments with Cunningham, where do you think this race stands now? Has there been any kind of perceptible shift towards Tillis? Or is Cunningham still the favorite? I agree with you-and I've made this point myself a number of times-that American voters are much more complex and much less ignorant than many people on here give them credit for. Considering this, I personally think Tillis still has a chance.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I feel like people hand-waving this away are missing the point. This isn’t criminal and it doesn’t have to do with the issues, but it doesn’t need to be. A campaign isn’t 100% “about the issues,” and if it was Democrats would be less likely to win. Candidates spend a lot of money making ads trying to convince voters that they have good character and judgement. Politicians make ads with their family, or highlight past service to convince voters who may not agree with them completely to vote for them.

Previously Cunningham had the advantage on that, and it’s part of the reason he led by the margins he did. Now because of the scandal that could change. It hurts his image, and despite what the hyper-politically engaged posters here might think, a candidate’s character matters to people who aren’t hardcore partisans. Also, the scandal is evidence that the candidate is just plain stupid and has terrible judgement. This is another thing that undecided voters will consider.

This is going to hurt Cunningham. It doesn’t make this race Safe R or anything, but I feel like it will obviously move the race back towards a tossup.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Purely anecdotal, but I did some texting into NC for Biden today and had a couple people say they wouldn't vote for Cal because of the scandal, so...maybe not the best sign.

I wouldn't count on that based on two opinions, but ridiculous position. If you fully support Joe Biden, you should vote for Democrats in senate races, since large parts of the Biden/Harris agenda won't be enacted into law if Mitch keeps running the senate.

I think the "scandal" is overblown anyway. People might feel it was inappropriate for him to do so, but it's not like he's accused of rape or anything with kids. That should be a dealbreaker and have legal consequences, but texting an adult or even an affair that was consensual isn't worth losing the senate by voting against him.

I think you underestimate how some people view cheating. Some see it as a sign of general untrustworthiness, which is something voters told me quite a bit.

Who were these voters that you were reaching out to? Were they reliable voters, new voters, unreliable voters, voters you were trying to convert, ect? Also, about what % of them seemed to indicate their view of Cunningham had become less favorable to the point where they are on the fence or clearly not voting for him?

Not sure--just reaching out to voters through the NC Dems to ask for an early voting or voting plan in general. I would say maybe 3 or 4 people out of a couple hundred mentioned Cunningham specifically, but not many folks even brought up the Senate race, just "yes, I have my plan to vote, yes I will be voting D, etc."

Again, it's anecdotal. But I was actually able to flip one of those people that said she was hesitant about Cal by saying we're all human and have lapses in judgement.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Purely anecdotal, but I did some texting into NC for Biden today and had a couple people say they wouldn't vote for Cal because of the scandal, so...maybe not the best sign.

I wouldn't count on that based on two opinions, but ridiculous position. If you fully support Joe Biden, you should vote for Democrats in senate races, since large parts of the Biden/Harris agenda won't be enacted into law if Mitch keeps running the senate.

I think the "scandal" is overblown anyway. People might feel it was inappropriate for him to do so, but it's not like he's accused of rape or anything with kids. That should be a dealbreaker and have legal consequences, but texting an adult or even an affair that was consensual isn't worth losing the senate by voting against him.

I think you underestimate how some people view cheating. Some see it as a sign of general untrustworthiness, which is something voters told me quite a bit.

Who were these voters that you were reaching out to? Were they reliable voters, new voters, unreliable voters, voters you were trying to convert, ect? Also, about what % of them seemed to indicate their view of Cunningham had become less favorable to the point where they are on the fence or clearly not voting for him?

Not sure--just reaching out to voters through the NC Dems to ask for an early voting or voting plan in general. I would say maybe 3 or 4 people out of a couple hundred mentioned Cunningham specifically, but not many folks even brought up the Senate race, just "yes, I have my plan to vote, yes I will be voting D, etc."

Again, it's anecdotal. But I was actually able to flip one of those people that said she was hesitant about Cal by saying we're all human and have lapses in judgement.

Thank you for doing your part to our Democracy. I’ve always wanted to try helping the Biden team via text, but for obvious reasons, my parents won’t let me because I’m a minor. Got one of my parents to give money to Harrison though.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Thank you for doing your part to our Democracy. I’ve always wanted to try helping the Biden team via text, but for obvious reasons, my parents won’t let me because I’m a minor. Got one of my parents to give money to Harrison though.

They won't let you because you're a minor? You're allowed to volunteer even if you're a minor. And you don't use your own phone number to text--it will likely be done through ThruText or a similar service.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Thank you for doing your part to our Democracy. I’ve always wanted to try helping the Biden team via text, but for obvious reasons, my parents won’t let me because I’m a minor. Got one of my parents to give money to Harrison though.

They won't let you because you're a minor? You're allowed to volunteer even if you're a minor. And you don't use your own phone number to text--it will likely be done through ThruText or a similar service.

They just don’t like the idea of me interacting with strangers in general, so I would feel bad about disobeying them, but then again, they know I’m on this forum and could be reading this very post for all I know, in which case I’m in big trouble.

[Pericles]

It would probably work better for Cunningham to argue he'll be a check on a Trump second term lol. People simply won't believe Biden is inevitable, no matter what the polls show.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

People need to run on the public option if they aren't already. Its popular and it will be a goo rallying cry for the dems

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1314926460692582400?s=20

Wonder if other Senate Republicans will follow suit

Not this s*** again. Republicans would not be a “check” on Biden, they’d be a pair of handcuffs. They’d stop at no means, no matter how corrupt and unethical, to stop him from doing anything to help Americans, and happily let the country go to hell so that they can blame it on him and win again. People thinking about voting Biden and Republican downballot need to understand this. Biden and a Republican Congress would not play footsie and make America a moderate wonderland again.

The Democratic rebuttal to this has to be two things. 1) The election isn’t over yet. 2) Republicans like Tillis have proven that they won’t be a check on anything, since they’ve shown time and time again that they’ll vote with Trump and McConnell without question, without any concern for Americans. They can’t be trusted to bring any kind of balance to Congress.

Newsflash: THIS STRATEGY ISN"T AIMED AT YOUR VOTE

This kind of strategy is aimed at rich suburbanites, who are center right but hate Trump's guts. People who aren't on board with Biden's agenda or at least not as a whole and thus don't feel comfortable with him having a blank check to implement it. They are just voting for him to get rid of the Orange buffoon.

Why is this forum full of such smart people so clueless when it comes to elections. "Why would anybody vote for Biden and Tillis", I see this everywhere. It isn't that complicated, idiosyncratic voters are a thing and they often end up deciding close elections. Not everyone is as engaged and knowledgeable about politics as us, and we should be mindful of that when getting outraged at the thought that there might be Anti-Trump voters who want Biden to get elected to get rid of this incompetent administration, but don't want some or all of Biden's proposals.

I agree with your general point that people thinking themselves themselves and the people they know are representative of the entire electorate is annoying, but I also feel like Atlas stereotypes entire groups of voters instead of looking at the more complex shifts. For example, "Rich Suburbanites" seems kind of vague, and the idea of a wealthy moderate well educated Romney Republican seems more like a stereotype than a large voting block. We treat Suburban Women, WWC, Hispanics, and other groups as monoliths when they are really more complex than that, which is why I really dislike it when people say "Biden will win TX because suburban women". Also, at this point, I think turnout is more important than the "swing voter", though both are relevant.

Anyways, I agree with your point that most voters tend to be stupid, and can vote for or against someone based on their party, soundbites, or just what they're friends say, and this cycle, most evidence suggests that partisanship will be the biggest factor in most of these senate races, as it was in 2016 and 2018.

Its not that voters are "stupid" because they aren't as engaged across the range of policy issues. It is more that they have too many things going on in their busy lives to spend hours upon hours studying the various intricacies of policy that down the line party people live and die by.